[URPE] A theatening link between CO2 atmospheric concentations and world economic growth

[Jose Tapia]

Dear URPE members:

You can find here

http://sitemaker.umich.edu/tapia_granados/files/a_threatening_link_f5___refs.pdf

a paper showing how the annual increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 correlates with the annual absolute change in world economic output ("world GDP"). Indeed, CO2 concentrations and world GDP seem to be cointegrated. 

The results of the paper mean that, for instance, an annual growth of the world GDP at an annual rate of 3% will associate with increasingly greater annual increases of CO2 concentrations, since an annual increase of the world GDP at a constant rate imply that each successive year the absolute increase in world GDP will be greater. Since for earth scientists the present levels of CO2 at almost 390 parts per million (ppm) are deleterious for global climate, and only levels around 350 ppm would be compatible with the stabilization of world climate, the policy implications of a link between world GDP and CO2 concentrations are obvious.

Global warming is a major economic issue that was not around in the times of Smith, Marx or Keynes. If we really care about economic perspectives for our grandchildren, should we deal with a new issue with tools and ideas received from the past?

All the best,

José A. Tapia Granados, MBBCh, MPH, Ph.D.(Econ)
Assistant Research Scientist, The University of Michigan 
Institute for Social Research, Room 3320
426 Thompson Street, P.O. Box 1248
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248

Phone: (1) (734) 763-0447
Fax:   (1) (734) 936-0548
http://sitemaker.umich.edu/tapia_granados/