[URPE] requesting climate letter sign on

[Eban Goodstein]

Colleagues, requesting your signature on the letter below, from 
economists, need not be from Oregon. More details and background report 
at:

http://cwch.uoregon.edu/climate_change.htm

Reply to me or Bob Doppelt <bob-cwch at att.net>.

thanks-- Eban Goodstein


July 19, 2005

To Oregon's Public And Private Sector Decision Makers:

The undersigned economists write to express a collective professional 
judgment that global warming poses significant risks to Oregon's 
economy and welfare. We believe that prompt action to reduce these 
risks would be a sound investment in Oregon's future prosperity and 
well-being.

Changes in Oregon's average temperature, water resources, and sea 
levels have been documented. Future trends in temperature and sea level 
about which the majority of professional scientists now agree, are 
likely to impose significant economic costs on key sectors of the 
state's economy. Having considered available evidence about the 
potential economic impacts of climate change in Oregon (see 
accompanying report and fact sheet), we set forth eight propositions 
and three recommendations to sharpen the focus on steps to create 
opportunities and manage the risks as Oregon enters uncharted climate 
territory.

During the twentieth century, the earth's average temperature increased 
by about one degree Fahrenheit, an increase that makes the earth hotter 
than at any time in at least the past one thousand years. Scientists 
have concluded that the unusual warming of the late twentieth century 
is due to human activities that affect the atmosphere. Scientists have 
also concluded that emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other 
so-called "greenhouse gases" from the combustion of carbon-based fossil 
fuels for energy production, industry, and transportation are the 
primary cause of the warming.

In the Pacific Northwest, average temperatures have increased more than 
the global average - about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Given trends in 
greenhouse gas emissions and present understanding of the climate 
system, climate scientists project an additional warming in the 
Northwest of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the current (elevated) 
average temperature by the decade of the 2020s, and approximately 5.4 
degrees Fahrenheit by the 2050s. In other words, scientists anticipate 
that additional warming about as large as the entire warming observed 
during the twentieth century will occur each decade for the foreseeable 
future.

The projected increases in temperature pose many risks to Oregon's 
ecosystems, economy, and social institutions. There are risks 
associated with an accelerated reduction in the mountain snowpack, 
causing very large reductions in summer stream flows and an 
intensification of summer drought, especially on the east side of the 
Cascades. There are risks tied to a sea level rise of as much as three 
feet above present levels by the end of this century. And there is a 
real risk of abrupt climate change - sudden shifts in temperature or 
climate patterns that can occur when thresholds in the climate system 
are crossed-and that risk will increase with continued changes in the 
global climate.

A limited number of economic studies have considered the implications 
of this warming trend for sectors of Oregon's economy and attempted to 
evaluate the magnitude of likely costs. Acknowledging that efforts to 
date are preliminary, we nonetheless agree that available evidence 
supports the following eight propositions:

1.	Rising average temperatures due to global warming will impose 
economic costs on many Oregonians in the near term, primarily due to 
lower river flows and restricted supplies of water associated with the 
loss of mountain snowpack and earlier snowmelt.
2.	In the longer term, but within this century, these and other costs 
are likely to increase as negative effects of rising temperatures and 
rising sea levels on water supplies, beach loss and coastal 
infrastructure, agricultural crop production, and forests, fisheries, 
and other resources become more pronounced.
3.	Rising average temperatures also increase the risk of certain 
catastrophic events that can affect Oregon.
4.	Many of the projected changes to Oregon's environment and natural 
resources (e.g., large reductions in summer water supplies, loss of 
mountain snow, beach inundation, and changes in regional ecosystems) 
are likely to have negative effects on Oregonians' jobs, incomes, and 
quality of life.
5.	An insurance approach - spending now to protect against potentially 
large future costs with an unknown probability - can be a prudent 
response to justify incurring costs today in an effort to avoid future 
risks and potentially catastrophic outcomes and costs associated with 
uncontrolled climate change.
6.	"Insurance premiums" against climate change risks include reasonable 
measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to displace fossil energy 
use through improved efficiency and local non-carbon polluting energy 
sources, and to encourage in-state investment in renewable energy 
technologies and energy efficiency.
7.	Such an insurance approach at the state level has the greatest 
chance of success if undertaken in conjunction with similar efforts by 
other states and regions.
8.	Supporting the development of industries associated with the clean 
and renewable energy sectors may lay a foundation for job and income 
growth in Oregon and demonstrate leadership that benefits the state's 
economy and well-being.

Given these propositions, we urge the state's public and private sector 
decision makers to make three commitments now for Oregon's future:

1.	Act to reduce emissions: Accelerate concrete actions to reduce 
Oregon's emissions of greenhouse gases and to encourage global 
emissions reductions.
2.	Prepare for higher temperatures and sea levels: Factor the risks of 
rising temperatures and sea levels into infrastructure, energy, water, 
salmon, public health, and economic development planning processes at 
the state and local levels.
3.	Invest in economic opportunities: Adopt business and job development 
strategies that capture competitive advantage in the manufacture, use, 
and export of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies and 
other technologies that reduce emissions and enhance adaptation.

The basis for these propositions and recommendations is discussed more 
fully, with complete documentation, in the accompanying report, The 
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon.

Oregon's elected leaders, public agencies, and businesses have already 
taken initiative on global warming, but much remains to be done.

We believe that the anticipated changes to Oregon's environment and 
resources, and the adjustments that businesses, households, and 
communities will have to make, are without precedent. Many changes seem 
largely unavoidable, and some are clearly imminent.

Now is the time to act, to prepare, and to invest. Oregon's future is 
at stake.

Respectfully submitted,

Eban Goodstein, Professor of Economics, Lewis and Clark College
Noelwah R. Netusil, Professor of Economics, Reed College
Paul Courant, Professor of Economics and Professor of Public Policy, 
University of Michigan
Ernie Niemi, Economist, ECONorthwest
Nathan Sivers Boyce, Assistant Professor, Economics, Willamette 
University
Peter Dorman, Professor of Economics, Evergreen State College
Richard B. Howarth, Professor, Dartmouth College.
William Jaeger, Associate Professor, Oregon State University
Donald H. Negri, Professor of Economics, Willamette University
Richard C. Porter, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of 
Michigan
Yoram Bauman, Ph.D. Economics
Karin Sable, Associate Professor of Economics and Environmental 
Studies, University of
        Puget Sound
Yoko Nagase, Assistant Professor of Economics, Lawrence University
William F. Barnes, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of 
Portland
Ernest R. Diedrich, Professor of Economics, St. Johns University and 
the College of St.
        Benedict
Brian Czech, Adjunct Professor of Economics, Virginian Polytechnical 
Institute and State
        University


[signatures as of July 22, 2005, others to come]


+   +   +   +   +   +   +

Eban Goodstein
Professor of Economics
Lewis and Clark College
Portland, OR 97219
v 503.768.7626 /  f 503.768.7611
eban at lclark.edu


+   +   +   +   +   +   +

Eban Goodstein
Professor of Economics
Lewis and Clark College
Portland, OR 97219
v 503.768.7626 /  f 503.768.7611
eban at lclark.edu