[R-P] Un diplomático hindú sobre la "vuelta de campana" rusa en relación a Libia

[A Ser]

    Muy preocupante. Esperemos que alguien reaccione dentro de la elite rusa. Para los paises del tercer mundo la leccion es que no se puede confiar en nadie mas que en ellos mismos.  Igual supongo que a Siria la sostendran, tienen demasiados intereses en ese pais (Desde contratos por venta de armas a el uso del Puerto de Tartus para   la flota del mar negro) Pero....

Tambien lo de Turquia preocupante, mostrandose la falsedad total de su supuesto alejamiento del bloque euroatlantico. El primer ministro Erdogan pidio tanto la salida de Gadaffi como de Assad.... El escenario Sirio para Libia esta muy cercano....

La verdad se ve cada vez mas cercano un escenario de guerra en el medio oriente, sobre todo en Siria e Iran. Las consecuncias que esto puede tener para la posibilidad  de un mundo mutipolar son determinantes.... Tanto como para la viabilidad a mediano plazo de un bloque autonomo en america latina...






--- El sáb 11-jun-11, Néstor Gorojovsky <nmgoro en gmail.com> escribió:

> De: Néstor Gorojovsky <nmgoro en gmail.com>
> Asunto: [R-P] Un diplomático hindú sobre la "vuelta de campana" rusa en relación a Libia
> Para: "manco" <yo_20056 en yahoo.com.ar>
> Cc: "Lucha de masas para recuperar la Argentina" <reconquista-popular en greenhouse.economics.utah.edu>
> Fecha: sábado, 11 de junio de 2011, 11:45
> CITANDO LA FUENTE,EL MATERIAL DE ESTA
> LISTA ES DE LIBRE REPRODUCCIÓN
> 
> 
> Disculpen que no traduzca, pero merece la pena leer este
> comentario de
> política internacional
> 
> Russia's U-Turn
> by M K Bhadrakumar
> Russia went to the Group of Eight (G-8) summit meeting at
> Deauville as
> an inveterate critic of the "unilateralist" Western
> intervention in
> Libya, but came away from the seaside French resort as a
> mediator
> between the West and Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. 
> The United
> States scored a big diplomatic victory in getting Moscow to
> work for
> regime change in Libya.
> No sooner than he got back to Moscow, President Dmitry
> Medvedev
> ordered his special envoy to Africa Mikhail Margelov to
> travel to
> Libya "in the nearest time".  Margelov is liked in the
> West and by
> Libyan rebels.  He admitted, "Gaddafi's future is the
> 'most delicate
> topic'."
> The Western version is that in the middle of the G-8
> summit, Medvedev
> suddenly declared that "Gaddafi has forfeited legitimacy"
> and Russia
> plans to "help him go".  But Russian Foreign Minister
> Sergei Lavrov
> insisted: "It wasn't a Russian initiative.  It was a
> request, an
> appeal from President Sarkozy, from President [Barack]
> Obama, from
> other participants."
> The Kremlin is obviously eager to inject a fresh lease of
> bonhomie
> into Russia's "reset" with the US.  Medvedev's meeting
> with Obama at
> Deauville failed to resolve the differences over deployment
> of a
> missile defense system in Europe.  The Kremlin is
> uneasy that the West
> is coolly ignoring Russian protestations about the
> intervention in
> Libya and a growing discord with the US is the last thing
> Medvedev
> wants.
> However, Russia's u-turn displeases China.  Beijing
> feels that Moscow
> led it up the garden path and left it alone.  Russia
> virtually dumped
> the "joint cooperation" project on the Middle East and
> North Africa
> that Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi worked
> out at
> their meeting in Moscow last month as a new dimension to
> Sino-Russian
> strategic partnership.
> A Moscow-datelined commentary by Xinhua displays genuine
> irritation.
> It begins with a wry remark that Russia "strikingly joined
> the Western
> powers" in urging Gaddafi's exit.  It adds, "Experts
> and analysts
> believe Russia made the move to protect its own interests
> in Libya and
> have a stake in the country's future.  Yet they remain
> skeptical over
> whether Russia could help make a difference in the Middle
> East
> country."
> The commentary analyses that Russia was all along
> fence-sitter
> wagering which side in the Libyan internal conflict would
> ultimately
> prevail and, therefore, it criticized both the West and
> Gaddafi.  But
> Moscow could lately see that the NATO was determined to
> have Gaddafi
> ousted and that realization "might have helped Russia make
> up its
> mind" to tag along with the West.
> Xinhua said there were weighty considerations behind this
> opportunism:
> Moreover, seeking to protect its interests and stay
> relevant in the
> post-conflict Libya is perhaps another key reason. 
> Russia sees Libya
> as an important partner in the region, having poured
> billions of US
> dollars of investment in Libya in sectors like oil
> exploration,
> railway construction and arms sales.  Already, a
> chaotic Libya is
> crippling Russia's investment there. . . .
> >As NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] air raids
> are gaining further momentum, it's only natural for Russia
> to start considering its own role as it cannot afford to
> stay out of the picture.
> Additionally, some of the Western nations' promises and
> offers at the
> G-8 summit also prompted Russia to make the turn.  At
> the summit, the
> Western countries pledged to facilitate Russia's entry into
> the World
> Trade Organization by the end of this year while, ahead of
> the summit,
> France and Russia reached a deal under which Paris would
> sell four
> Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Moscow.
> Xinhua expressed doubt, however, whether Russia would meet
> with
> success in its newfound role, since "Moscow has limited
> influence in
> Libya . . . [and] Gaddafi's departure from power is still
> distant."
> Significantly, the People's Daily featured a separate
> article
> highlighting that China has all along pursued a highly
> principled
> policy toward the countries of the Middle East and North
> Africa.  The
> implied comparison with Russia's unpredictable course is
> obvious.  The
> commentary underlined a great consistency in China's Middle
> East
> policies in regard of its observance of the "basic norms of
> mutual
> respect and non-interference in each other's internal
> affairs when it
> comes to international relations . . . Regarding the
> violent conflicts
> in certain countries, China calls on all related parties to
> settle
> differences through dialogues and negotiations and to avoid
> violence".
>  The People's Daily explained:
> China has forged an image of a trustworthy and responsible
> country by
> adhering to its principles and showing flexibility when
> dealing with
> various problems according to the actual situations in
> international
> forums such as the United Nations.  Based on the
> principles of
> respecting national sovereignty and non-interference in
> others'
> internal affairs, China did not vote in favor of the UN
> Security
> Council's resolution for establishing a no-fly zone in
> Libya.
> >However, it did not cast a dissenting vote either based
> on the purpose of protecting civilians and the positions of
> various parties, such as the League of Arab States and the
> African Union . . .  Meanwhile, China also opposed
> interference in the internal affairs and the sanctions
> approved by the UN Security Council and by other
> international institutions, which have made the problem more
> complicated.
> The article asserts that "China's peaceful foreign policy
> has paid
> off" in the Middle East.  China seems to anticipate
> that Russia's
> image would take a beating over Libya, and seems to
> distance itself
> from negative fallouts.
> A credibility problem is bound to arise in the Chinese
> mind.  China
> has brought its position much closer to Russia's over the
> developments
> in Middle East, even suggesting it would block any
> Western-sponsored
> moves against Damascus in the United Nations Security
> Council.  China
> will need to rethink how it responds if the Libyan issue
> comes up
> again in the United Nations Security Council.  There
> can be fallouts
> on other areas such as the Afghan problem.  At
> Deauville, Obama "gave
> Russia", as Time magazine put it, a US$400 million contract
> for the
> supply of helicopters to Afghanistan.
> The deal has been wrapped up when hardly a fortnight
> remains for the
> summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at
> Astana,
> where Afghanistan tops the agenda.  On the other hand,
> a country
> acting in its self-interests in any given situation -- that
> is not
> something that shocks Chinese sensitivities.  Besides,
> Libya is not a
> major template in the Sino-Russian strategic partnership.
> On Thursday, it became clear that a major gas deal between
> the two
> countries is going to be signed on June 10.  After
> holding talks with
> the visiting Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Moscow,
> Russian
> Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said, "We are expecting
> that we will
> sign the range of contracts during the visit of the Chinese
> president
> to Russia."
> Russia has in recent years sought to align itself more
> closely with
> China as it seeks to unlock new energy markets in
> Asia.  Thus, on
> final reckoning, Libya is a blip in Beijing's ties with
> Moscow,
> compared to the prospect of 70 billion cubic meters of
> Russian natural
> gas sent to China annually.
> What counts, therefore, is not so much that China has lost
> heavily due
> to Russia's change of course on Libya as that Obama has
> gained
> significantly.  Medvedev's call for Gaddafi to go has
> more than
> symbolic value for Obama.
> The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operation has
> so far
> failed to remove Gaddafi from power and he seems determined
> to dig in.
>  The protracted operation poses difficulties for the West
> financially
> and politically and if Moscow could persuade Gaddafi to
> throw in the
> towel, it will be wonderful denouement for Obama.  On
> the other hand,
> if Russia fails in his "mediatory services", the enterprise
> won't look
> as Obama's folly, either.
> Second, Russia's hitherto angry reaction to the NATO
> intervention in
> Libya blocked any scope for the West to get a UN Security
> Council
> mandate for regime change in Tripoli.  Obama can now
> expect smooth
> sailing for any move seeking UN Security Council legitimacy
> for a
> successor regime in Tripoli.  A Russian veto can be
> ruled out.
> Also, Russia's volte-face over Libya has implications for
> Obama's
> strategy toward Syria, Russia's remaining Middle Eastern
> ally.  The US
> is relentlessly seeking regime change in Syria and, once
> again, Russia
> stands in the way.  But, for how long?
> Russian rhetoric continues to be strong on Syria. 
> "Attempts to change
> the regime in Syria by using force should be curbed,"
> Lavrov advised
> NATO on Thursday.  But Damascus wouldn't be easily
> convinced.  And
> that works to the US's advantage.
> On a broader plane, the message is going out that Obama's
> "reset"
> policy is slowly but steadily turning Russia from being an
> obstructionist power to a collaborator.  Countries
> raging from Iran to
> Ukraine and Kazakhstan to Tajikistan would take note. 
> The Russian
> turnaround on Libya shows that the US-Russia discourse is
> becoming
> distinctly conciliatory.
> Obama's policy of "selective cooperation" toward Russia
> stands
> vindicated.  Russia has given excellent cooperation
> over Iran and
> Afghanistan -- and now on Libya.  The "reset" seems a
> success story
> for the Obama administration's foreign policy -- second
> only to the
> killing of Osama bin Laden.
> ________________________________
> Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the
> Indian Foreign
> Service.  His assignments included the Soviet Union,
> South Korea, Sri
> Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait,
> and Turkey.
>  This article was first published in Asia Times on 4 June
> 2011; it is
> reproduced here for non-profit educational purposes. 
> Cf. "Russia
> against UN Resolution on Syria"(Voice of Russia, 6 June
> 2011); "France
> Ready to Seek UN Syria Vote despite Russia"(Reuters, 6 June
> 2011); "On
> June 4 China made its first confirmed contact with the
> Libyan rebels.
> The meeting was held in Qatar between a Chinese diplomat
> and the
> leader of the rebel National Transitional Council. . .
> .  China now
> seem to have followed the Russian lead as in the space of a
> few days,
> it has increased its contact with the rebels, announcing on
> Monday
> that that its diplomats have visited the Libyan rebel
> stronghold of
> Benghazi and held talks with the rebel National
> Transitional Council"
> (Anissa Haddadi, "Is China Looking for a Profit by Dealing
> with the
> Libyan Rebels?"International Business Times, 7 June 2011).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> 
> Néstor Gorojovsky
> El texto principal de este correo puede no ser de mi
> autoría
> 
> ________________________________________
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