[R-P] Las oligarquías semicoloniales y las inducciones impositivas (el caso ruso)

[Néstor Gorojovsky]

La noticia de Reuters que repito abajo (en inglés) revela que, para
"inducir" a la inversión a la burguesía petrolera rusa, el gobierno de
Moscú propone liberarla de impuestos. Los paralelismos entre esta
situación y la de los ruralistas argentinos es demasiado evidente como
para que dejemos pasar sin traducción, al menos, el incisivo
comentario introductorio de Yoshie Furuhashi, que hizo llegar estas
líneas a la lista A-List:

¿Será este el principio del fin del nacionalismo de recursos,
derrotado por la negativa del capital a invertir y por lo tanto por la
caída de la producción? Pero dónde está la garantía de que el dinero
que se ahorre con las reducciones impositivas vaya realmente a
inversiones en producción petrolera? - Yoshie

>  Fuente:
>  <http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL2621240220080526>
>  Russian govt clears first step in oil tax cuts
>  Mon May 26, 2008 1:15pm BST
>
>  MOSCOW, May 26 (Reuters) - The Russian government cleared on Monday a
>  proposal to reduce the mineral extraction tax on oil, the first of
>  many steps it is planning in order to revive production growth in the
>  key industry.
>
>  The government approved amendments to the tax code under which the
>  tax-free threshold for mineral extraction tax will rise to $15 per
>  barrel from the current $9. The amendment needs to be approved by
>  parliament.
>
>  Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said the measure will allow oil
>  firms to save over $4 billion annually and invest this money into new
>  projects to spur production growth.
>
>  Former president and current prime minister Vladimir Putin has also
>  promised to introduce tax breaks for new oil-producing regions such as
>  the Arctic shelf, Yamal and Timan-Pechora. (Reporting by Darya
>  Korsunskaya, writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Amie
>  Ferris-Rotman)
>
>  <http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080526/108458280.html>
>  Russian government approves tax cuts for oil firms from 2009
>  17:28 | 26/ 05/ 2008
>
>  MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's government has approved a bill
>  to cut taxes for oil companies from 2009, a deputy finance minister
>  said on Monday.
>
>  "All the measures related to reducing the tax burden will enable
>  businessmen to use free funds for development," Sergei Shatalov said.
>
>  According to Finance Ministry estimates, the tax cut will grant oil
>  companies 165-175 billion rubles ($6.9-7.4 billion) a year.
>
>  Tax holidays for on-shelf projects will be offered for 10 to 15 years,
>  the deputy finance minister said.
>
>  According to Shatalov, tax holidays will be granted for 10 years for
>  companies engaged in prospecting and for 15 years for companies
>  engaged in oil prospecting and production.
>
>  Meanwhile, tax holidays for the Timano-Pechora oil and gas province in
>  northern Russia and the Yamal peninsula in the northeast Urals will be
>  granted for a term of up to seven years, Shatalov said, adding that a
>  decision on tax holidays will also take into account the volume of
>  crude production at the deposits.
>
>  Russia's government has also approved a differentiated scale of excise
>  duties on gasoline and diesel fuel from 2009 depending on the quality
>  of petroleum products, Shatalov said.
>
>  The excise duties will be differentiated depending on the category of
>  gasoline and fuel and their compliance with European standards,
>  instead of the current differentiation by the octane number, the
>  deputy finance minister said.
>
>  <http://www.russiatoday.ru/business/news/25281>
>  May 26, 2008, 22:24
>  Russian oil companies to get tax holidays
>
>  The Russian government has approved tax cuts of $US 4 billion for oil
>  companies from 2009. The reduction of the mineral extraction tax, a
>  key reform for the country's oil companies, is believed to be the
>  first step towards reviving production growth in the industry.
>
>  The state collects more than 90% of oil company profits through
>  corporate and production taxes, including export duties of 65% on oil
>  sold at more than $US 25 a barrel.
>
>  That's been great news for Russia's reserves and its economic
>  stability, but bad news for production growth, which has dwindled to
>  almost nothing in the last few years.
>
>  Analysts say the high taxes have been hampering companies from taking
>  on new challenges.
>
>  Chirvani Abdoullaev, a senior analyst from Alfa-bank, said: "They were
>  shifting their investments to the easy pickings and leaving behind a
>  lot of oil that is harder to extract, which requires more investment,
>  more technology."
>
>  However, the Russian government is now taking steps to change this.
>
>  Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said: "We should increase the profit
>  amount exempt from Mineral Extraction Tax from $US 9 a barrel to $US
>  15 a barrel."
>
>  Meanwhile, Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin has admitted Russian
>  pensioners will be directly hit by the oil tax cuts. He said in the
>  short term, concessions will only hit the National Welfare Fund,
>  designed to plug shortfalls in the pension system, but that the state
>  budget would be unaffected.
>
>  "We're correcting decisions made five years ago. This will affect our
>  tax receipts. The federal budget is structured in such a way that oil
>  and gas incomes go into a separate National Welfare Fund. This will be
>  hit the hardest by the cuts," he said.
>
>  Other tax incentives are also under discussion and expected to be
>  approved by the country's parliament by the end of the summer.
>
>  Many analysts agree that any reduction of the tax burden is a step in
>  the right direction, and Alfa Bank says even the first initiatives
>  could lead to a huge increase in the value of oil stocks - of up to 30
>  %.
>
>  <http://www.prime-tass.com/news/show.asp?topicid=65&id=438851>
>  OPINION: Oil taxes: Mind the gap - $20 bln tax cut but in two stages
>
>  Contributed by Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib
>
>  MOSCOW, May 26 (Prime-Tass) -- $20 bln tax savings at $100/bbl oil. We
>  believe that the government is close to announcing a mechanism to
>  reduce the tax burden in the oil sector. Rather than devising a new
>  formula, we believe that the tax cut will be derived from indexing the
>  parameters of the existing Mineral Extraction Tax (MET).
>
>  Currently, MET is calculated using the formula set in 2002 and this
>  has been adjusted for inflation only once, back in 2004. By including
>  inflation and ruble appreciation indexation, the changes in the tax
>  charge will result in a return of approximately $20 bln (gross) to
>  Russian oil companies. In addition, we believe that the government
>  will review proposals for a tax holiday in designated oil regions, and
>  changes in excise duties and export tariffs, both for crude oil and
>  oil products. If accepted, these amendments will increase the money
>  "given back" to the industry beyond the $20 bln from the MET changes.
>  A $20 bln gross tax reduction will result in a post-tax bottom line
>  gain of approximately $15 bln.
>
>  But, potential disappointment to come with the first cut. Prime
>  Minister Vladimir Putin recently confirmed that a tax cut for the oil
>  industry is on the way. He said that the enabling legislation will be
>  presented to the Duma during this spring session. However, we expect
>  the cut in the oil sector tax burden to come in two parts.
>
>  Part one is expected to involve the indexation of the "tax free base"
>  used in the MET formula from 2004. This will reduce the tax bill for
>  oil companies by an annualized $5.4 bln (annualized, gross) (or $4.1
>  bln net of profit tax) from the fourth quarter of this year. It is
>  also possible that during the first phase, the government might
>  approve a seven year tax holiday for new fields in certain regions.
>
>  Part two will involve further reductions in MET. This, at the current
>  year to date average price for Urals ($120/bbl), will result in a tax
>  reduction of $20 bln from 1 January, 2009. In addition, there will be
>  cuts in excise tax for oil products and export tax for crude oil and
>  oil products.
>
>  If only details of phase one of the tax cut is released, and without
>  clarification of the changes to come in phase two, then we would
>  almost certainly see a sharp fall in the price of oil stocks and the
>  market overall. When the full package is made clear we expect this to
>  be a positive driver for oil shares, and the market, from current
>  price levels.
>
>  Confirmation in next few days. In terms of timing, details of the
>  first phase reduction of $5.4 bln (annualized, gross) could come in
>  the next few days, once the government submits the proposed
>  legislation to the Duma. Details of the second phase changes, if not
>  made clear at the same time, will likely be made known by mid June.
>  This is because they will have to be contained in the 2009 draft
>  budget assumptions, and the finance ministry usually makes these known
>  around this time.
>
>  Investment Strategy
>
>  Best placed shares. The expected changes to the MET, plus other
>  possible adjustments in the excise duty and export tariffs that may be
>  implemented also as part of a broad review of taxation in the
>  industry, will mainly benefit companies operating in Russia's new oil
>  regions of Timano-Pechora and Eastern Siberia. In the former region,
>  the main beneficiaries will be LUKoil and Rosneft, with Surgutneftegaz
>  and West Siberia Resources also likely to benefit, but to a lesser
>  extent. In Eastern Siberia, the main beneficiaries will be Rosneft and
>  Surgutneftegaz with TNK-BP and Urals Energy also in line to benefit.
>  The expected increase in oil field spending across the industry will
>  also benefit the oil service companies: Eurasia Drilling, Integra and
>  C.A.T.oil.
>
>  Long term projects. We believe that as much as 100% of the extra cash
>  will be invested by the oil companies into long-term upstream projects
>  with a long pay back period. There are not many large fields currently
>  under developed that are close to production and which could avail of
>  the tax holiday in the nearest future. Most additional growth in the
>  long term will come from currently unexplored blocks in areas like
>  eastern Siberia, which is planned to be the prime source of crude for
>  the East Siberian Pipeline.
>
>  Tax holidays. It is also possible that the government might consider
>  the possibility of introducing tax holidays for such prospective
>  regions as Timano-Pechora and the continental shelf of the Russian
>  Federation. It is important to stress that we expect tax holidays not
>  only for fields under exploration (usually referred to as "new
>  fields") but, more importantly, for fields still in the development
>  stage. We also feel there is a possilbility that holidays for the
>  continental shelf will be expanded to the "sea shelf" too, which would
>  give strong stimulus to speed up exploration and development
>  activities on the shelfs of the Black and Caspian Seas. The winners of
>  such a move would be LUKoil, which develops the resources on the
>  Russian sea shelf of the Caspian Sea and Rosneft, which has three
>  offshore projects on the Black Sea and Azov Sea.
>
>  Stay long and consider "insurance". If only the phase one news is made
>  known then the oil shares and market would suffer a sharp fall. But if
>  details of the full package are made public at the same time, then
>  shares will rise, in our opinion. Three options to consider for
>  investors:
>
>  - If you believe the government is likely to also confirm a broad
>  outline of more substantial cuts at the same time as it publishes
>  legislation to approve the $5.4 bln reduction, then stay long in oils
>  and add to positions now.
>
>  - If, on the other hand, the government follows its normal practice of
>  not commenting on future plans and only publishes the legislation for
>  the first phase of the cut, then we will see a very sharp correction
>  in the oil sector and across the broader market.
>
>  - Given the short-term uncertainty and our conviction that details of
>  the second phase, consisting of substantial cuts, will be revealed
>  with the proposed 2009 budget changes during the summer, the best
>  strategy is to stay long in oils and also to look at the futures and
>  options market for insurance. The potential volatility of such a move
>  more than justifies the premium to be paid for options market
>  "insurance". The RTS Index LUKoil and Gazprom derivative instruments
>  all trade with large daily volumes on both the Futures and Options
>  bourses in Moscow.
>
>  End
>
>  Please note that opinions contributed to Prime-Tass are not edited. If
>  you would like to contribute your opinion, please send an email to
>  editor en prime-tass.com.
>
>  26.05.2008 11:46
>
> --
>  Yoshie
>  <http://montages.blogspot.com/>
>
>


-- 

Néstor Gorojovsky
El texto principal de este correo puede no ser de mi autoría