[R-P] Putín en Irán

[Néstor Gorojovsky]

[Supe conocer bastante bien a Yoshie Furuhashi cuando, a mi propuesta,
aceptó comoderar conmigo la lista que precedió a la A-List. Se trata
de una extraordinariamente inteligente marxista japonesa transplantada
a los EEUU, donde forma parte de la dirección de la Monthly Review.
Amplia de miras, pero con objetivos rotundamente claros, Yoshie es
quizás uno de los exponentes más lúcidos de un pensamiento marxista
sin lugar para la ambigüedad. Lejos de dejarse asustar por los bultos
berdaevianos que brotan de las grietas sulfurosas de la
contrarrevolución rampante, saben ver bien qué fundamentos materiales
tienen semejantes embelecos. Traduzco su comentario a una nota
"alarmada" del New York Times. El resto, disculpen, pero no me dan los
tiempos:

"He aquí el frente energético del Gran Juego del Siglo XXI. Si Irán y
Rusia llegan a una solución mutuamente beneficiosa y consiguen que los
europeos la acepten, será un gran paso adelante para ponerle límites a
la hegemonía estadounidense. La Rusia post-soviética y el Irán
post-jomeinista son menos dogmáticos que en otros tiempos; no es
imposible que tengan ciertos intereses comunes, a no ser que los rusos
piensen que impedir el ascenso de Irán como exportador de gas es más
importante que negar la hegemonía estadounidense en Asia Central"

Yo solo agregaría que el otro riesgo (el de que Irán suponga que puede
terminar quedándose con un buen pedazo de Iraq y sobre esa plataforma
impedir que Rusia se convierta en una nueva y amenazante superpotencia
postsoviética) también está presente]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: 16-oct-2007 11:34
Subject: [A-List] Putin in Iran

This is the energy front of the Great Game of the 21st century.  If
Iran and Russia can come up with a win-win solution for them, while
getting Europeans to consent to it, it will be a great leap forward to
checking US hegemony.  It is not impossible, for Post-Soviet Russia
and post-Khomeini Iran, i.e., less ideologically dogmatic on both
sides, have certain common interests, unless the Russians think it is
more important to prevent Iran's rise as a gas exporter than to deny
US hegemony in Central Asia. -- Yoshie

<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/world/17iran.html>
October 17, 2007
In Iran, Putin Warns Against Military Action
By NAZILA FATHI

TEHRAN, Oct. 16 — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told a summit
of five Caspian Sea nations in Iran today that any use of military
force in the Caspian region was unacceptable and in a declaration the
countries agreed that none of them would allow their territories to be
used as a base for launching military strikes against any of the
others.

"We should not even think of making use of force in this region," Mr.
Putin said. "We are saying that no Caspian nation should offer its
territory to third powers for use of force or military aggression
against any Caspian state," he added.

Mr. Putin's comments and the declaration come at a time when France
and the United States have refused to rule out military action to halt
Iran's nuclear program, which they believe is focused on nuclear
weapons. Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes.

The comments were also a strong message that Russia objects to any
American military presence in other Caspian Sea states.

Mr. Putin arrived in Tehran today for strategic meetings with Iran and
leaders from three other nearby Caspian Sea nations that have rich oil
and gas resources, promising to use dialogue to try to resolve the
international debate over Iran's nuclear program.

He was the first Kremlin leader to travel to Iran since 1943, when
Stalin attended a wartime summit meeting with Churchill and Roosevelt.
Russia has obstructed a third set of sanctions against Iran at the
United Nations that are intended to persuade the country to stop
enrichment activities, which Western nations fear could lead to the
development of nuclear weapons. Iran insists it wants to use its
nuclear program for conventional purposes only.

Mr. Putin, who stresses the need for further dialogue and working
within the International Atomic Energy Agency, was scheduled to meet
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad twice today.

The main reason for the trip is ostensibly a meeting in Tehran of
nations that border the Caspian Sea, including the leaders of
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. They will discuss the
division of the Caspian Sea resources, particularly oil, among the
five coastline states.

With world oil prices at about $86 a barrel, the legal status and
ownership of the sea's vast oil and gas deposits have become a
contentious issues.

"The division of the sea is not less important than the nuclear
program," said Ahmad Nateq Nouri, a former parliamentary speaker, in a
report carried on the Fars news agency.

Before 1991, Iran and the Soviet Union each took 50 percent of the oil
and gas from the Caspian Sea. But after the fall of the Soviet Union,
and the independence of its constituent republics, the division of the
oil became more complicated.

Iran, whose coastline makes up about 13 percent of the sea, has
insisted that it will not agree to a share of less than 20 percent.

Right now the nations are developing the oil resources as they see
fit, without an international agreement. A joint agreement could spur
new development projects, which Russia and Iran want to pursue without
looking outside the region for foreign investment.

"On many issues we have reached final agreement but we also need
collective cooperation," said Mr. Ahmadinejad in his inauguration
speech at the gathering today. "The goal is to keep the sea clear of
military competitions and keep foreigners out of the region."

However, the summit concluded without a clear agreement on territorial
shares. The leaders said in the declaration that the sea would be used
for peaceful purposes and its issues would be resolved by the
coastline states.

As part of their nuclear talks, Mr. Putin and Mr. Ahmadinejad were
expected to discuss the completion of a nuclear power plant that
Russia is building in the southern city of Bushehr.

Russia has given various reasons for the delay in completing the plant.

Mr. Putin was received by the foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, at
the Tehran airport, according to state-run television. Mr. Putin, who
had flown from Germany, where he met Chancellor Angela Merkel on
Monday, went ahead with the trip despite a report of a possible
assassination plot against him in Iran.

On Sunday evening, the Interfax news agency in Moscow reported that
Mr. Putin had received a warning from the Russian special services
that his life would be in danger during his trip. Interfax cited a
single security person as its source whom it did not name. This person
talked of potential groups of suicide bombers. Other news agencies
sent out similar reports on Monday but without details or evidence,
and Iran dismissed the reports.

"Tehran and Moscow are strategic partners," Kazem Jalali, a member of
Parliament, said in an interview with state television. "We are
against unilateral policies and so is Russia," he said, referring to
American efforts to exert pressure on Tehran to cease any questionable
nuclear development. "This puts us both in the same front," he said.

Russia and China hold veto power on the United Nations Security
Council, and Iran is relying on both countries — which have important
trade ties with Iran — to oppose another round of sanctions. Moscow
voted for two sets of earlier sanctions but it has said that it will
not support a third set unless it is proven that Iran has a program to
build nuclear weapons.

In addition to the nuclear power plants, and business ties, Moscow has
military deals with Iran.

"The visit is a big victory for Iran in the face of efforts by the
West which is trying to isolate Iran," wrote the semi-official Fars
news agency which often represents the views of Mr. Ahmadinejad.

<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aWy6HIFrafHk&refer=europe>
Putin Heads to Iran, Seeking Tighter Grip on Europe's Energy

By Lucian Kim
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- President Vladimir Putin will seek to
strengthen Russian control over Europe's energy supplies when he meets
in Iran with the other leaders of the five states around the Caspian
Sea, which together hold almost half the world's natural gas and a
fifth of its oil.

Putin, the first Kremlin leader to visit Iran since the 1979 Islamic
revolution, will also hold separate talks tomorrow with President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad amid efforts by the U.S. and its allies to force
Iran to end its nuclear program. Putin today confirmed he will travel
to Tehran, a day after he was warned of a plan to assassinate him
there.

Russia, supplier of a quarter of Europe's gas, still monopolizes
export pipelines out of Central Asia, leading former Soviet states
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to consider alternative routes to world
markets. Iran, meanwhile, is redoubling efforts to become a new source
of gas for Europe. Putin is pursuing agreements with these countries
to give Russia more control over the global gas market.

``Putin is afraid his plan for control over Central Asian energy is
falling apart,'' said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East
European Gas Analysis consultancy. ``Putin wants to get access to
Iran's tap before it's even opened. His whole idea is eliminating
competition from other oil and gas producers.''

Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have been at
odds over how to divide the Caspian since the collapse of the Soviet
Union in 1991. Iran advocates splitting the landlocked body of water
into five equal parts, while the other countries want sectors
corresponding to their coastlines, which would cut Iran's share to
less than 15 percent.

Refining Hub

Iran, under pressure for its nuclear program, is seeking to become a
refining hub for Central Asian oil and gas by expanding existing
export routes. The Islamic Republic, which holds the world's largest
gas reserves after Russia, is also trying to plug into a planned
pipeline linking Turkey to central Europe.

There's no legal precedent for dividing the Caspian, said Gareth
Winrow, a professor of international relations at Istanbul Bilgi
University. ``That's what makes this question so open and fluid,''
Winrow said. ``The law is being used as a screen to hide various
political and economic goals.''

The U.S. is pushing a plan to build an underwater pipeline linking
Turkmenistan, on the eastern shore of the Caspian, with Azerbaijan in
the west. The link would bypass Russia and give Europe access to
Turkmenistan, the second-largest gas producer in the former Soviet
Union.

Kazakhstan, holder of 3 percent of the world's oil and the biggest
field discovered since the 1970s, plans to double oil production by
2015. The country, which exports most of its oil through Russian
pipelines, is pursuing alternate routes to China, Turkey and Georgia.

'Clock Is Ticking'

Kazakh and Turkmen leaders pledged to increase gas shipments via
Russia during a meeting with Putin in May, though a September deadline
for reaching a more detailed agreement was missed.

``For Russia the clock is ticking,'' said Chris Weafer, chief
strategist at UralSib Bank in Moscow. ``Russia needs to extend its
energy relationship with Europe and Central Asia before Iran is
rehabilitated.''

Iran is counting on Russia's continuing diplomatic support and
increasing European and Asian competition for its resources to help
counter growing pressure from the U.S., which is seeking tougher
United Nations sanctions for what it claims is Iran's pursuit of a
nuclear weapon.

Putin rejected the U.S. claim Oct. 11, saying during a news conference
in Moscow with French President Nicolas Sarkozy that there's no firm
evidence Iran is seeking to produce a bomb. Sarkozy called for tighter
UN sanctions ahead of his visit.

`Gas Cartel'

The Kremlin denies that by maintaining the status quo it's keeping
Iran crippled as a potential energy rival.

``Russia is not benefiting from the isolation of Iran,'' Dmitry
Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said in an interview. ``We'll only welcome
deeper involvement of Iran in the system of energy communication.''

In Tehran, Putin may try to formalize a cartel-like gas organization
as a way of keeping Iran and other gas producers in check, Korchemkin
said by phone from Malvern, Pennsylvania, where his consultancy is
based.

At a summit in Doha, Qatar, in April, Russia led the drive for the
world's biggest natural-gas producing countries to coordinate pricing
along the lines of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

``Putin's ideal is Standard Oil,'' Korchemkin said, referring to the
late 19th-century American monopoly. ``He thinks if he can cut gas
production, he'll be able to manipulate the price, like OPEC does
every other week.''

Peskov rejected the idea, saying Russia has proved itself to be a
reliable energy supplier to Europe even during the Cold War.

``It's not an issue of cartel agreements,'' Peskov said. ``The demand
for energy resources is growing much faster than supply. Being a
responsible member of the international community, Russia is ready to
secure its supply and ensure that demand is satisfied.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Lucian Kim in Tehran at
lkim3 en bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 15, 2007 09:54 EDT