[R-P] (Inglés) América Latina: El Financial Times está asustado

[Nestor Gorojovsky]

El Financial Times alerta sobre el giro a la izquierda de 
Latinoamérica.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

De la lista a-list en lists.econ.utah.edu:  
Mon Jul 29 02:10:01 2002 

Latin America turns left
By Richard Lapper
Financial Times: July 29 2002

Latin America is in turmoil. In recent weeks, there have been =
anti-privatisation riots in Peru and Paraguay, violent strikes in =
Ecuador and financial crises in Brazil and Uruguay. Last week, as the 
=
government candidate Jos=E9 Serra slumped further in the polls before 
=
October's election, Brazil's currency and bonds sank to their lowest 
=
levels ever. Argentina's economic crisis continues to fester.

The region's creeping political contagion may be less virulent than 
the =
financial crisis of the 1990s, but could yet prove more damaging. 
More =
than a decade of market-friendly reforms, analysts fear, may be in =
peril.

In Argentina - the source of the upheaval - devaluation has failed to 
=
provide a platform for recovery. Output is expected to shrink by 
about =
15 per cent this year. Living standards are falling by the day and 
there =
is an ugly mood on the streets.

Argentina's plight has had a direct knock-on effect on two smaller =
neighbours, Uruguay and Paraguay, whose economies have sunk into the 
=
same recessionary path. In Uruguay, whose bonds were considered safe 
=
enough for pension funds to buy less than six months ago, the decline 
=
has been precipitous. Cash-strapped Argentines, who have 
traditionally =
regarded Uruguay's banks as a safe haven, have been withdrawing their 
=
funds. Uruguay's foreign reserves have shrunk by about a third so far 
=
this month.

More generally, the losses suffered by foreign banks, utilities and =
other foreign companies in Argentina have led many international =
businesses to reappraise the potential risks of doing business in the 
=
region. Reduced flows of investment are aggravating external 
pressures, =
contributing to slower growth and higher unemployment in many 
countries.

All of this is stoking popular opposition to free market reforms. =
Rioting of the kind seen last week in Ecuador and Paraguay has been 
one =
result. The popularity in opinion polls of leftwing politicians has 
been =
another. In Brazil the strength of Luiz In=E1cio Lula da Silva of the 
=
Workers' party has unnerved bond market investors, raising fears that 
a =
new administration may be unable to manage the growing debt burden. 
As =
Peter West, Latin American economist at BBVA in London, puts it: 
"People =
would not be so nearly worried about Brazil if Argentina had not =
defaulted."

There is as yet no evidence of governments reverting to state =
interventionism, trade protection, deficit spending and the other =
populist policies that the region turned away from in the 1980s. 
Leaders =
such as President Hugo Ch=E1vez in Venezuela and Eduardo Duhalde in =
Argentina have occasionally hinted at such a course but in practice 
have =
not veered far from orthodox prescriptions. "No one is turning the 
clock =
back," says Mr West.

But with disenchantment at limited social progress on the rise, that 
=
risk is growing. "There is a sour mood," says Michael Shifter, a =
director of the Inter-American Dialogue policy forum in Washington. =
"People are taking to the streets in a way we have not seen for some 
=
time."

Social protests in Bolivia and Peru have led to the creation of new =
movements, which already appear to be influencing the political 
agenda. =
In Bolivia, Evo Morales, a leader of mainly indigenous coca growers 
and =
previously well known for organising blockades to thwart US-backed 
drug =
eradication campaigns, won about 20 per cent of the vote in last 
month's =
presidential election.

In Peru, Juan Manuel Guill=E9n, the mayor of the southern city of =
Arequipa, who led successful protests against plans to privatise two 
=
electricity companies, is now one of the country' s most popular =
politicians.

Marxist and other revolutionary activists are finding a new sense of 
=
purpose. "In Peru, leftwing movements from the 1960s and 1970s that =
everyone thought were dead are popping up again," Mr Shifter says. 
"This =
is fertile ground for any conceivable movement to find some space."

Alfredo Keller, a Venezuelan political analyst and pollster, likens =
these movements to the Bolivarian Circles, the organised and highly =
mobile supporters of Mr Ch=E1vez in Venezuela. The speed with which =
large numbers of activists took to the streets, many on motorcycles, 
was =
an important factor in the defeat of April's coup attempt against the 
=
president.

All three movements, Mr Keller argues, are part of an "anti-system 
and =
anti-globalisation new left" that seeks to articulate the anger of 
the =
"socially excluded and those who feel they have missed out".

The changing mood presents the US administration with challenges. =
Staunch opposition to support for Argentina by Paul O'Neill, the US =
Treasury secretary, has angered many Latin Americans, who feel that =
after the successful rescues of Mexico and Brazil in the 1990s, the =
rules have been changed. When he visits the regions next week, the =
blunt-talking Mr O'Neill will need to be careful not to inflame =
passions.

Critics also argue that US policymakers are too preoccupied with 
other =
"less important" issues, citing moves to tighten the trade embargo =
against Cuba. Imposition of steel tariffs and farm subsidies has =
undermined the position of market reformers in Latin America.

On occasion, US actions have played into the hands of the new 
populists. =
Most recently, warnings by the US ambassador to Bolivia not to vote 
for =
Mr Morales persuaded many young Bolivians to do just that. "His 
strong =
showing was undoubtedly helped by anti-Morales statements from the US 
=
embassy in La Paz," says Chris Brogan of the London School of 
Economics.

As the influence of politicians such as Mr Morales and Mr Guill=E9n =
grows, fiscal and monetary stability could become precarious. In 
Peru, =
for example, lower-than-expected revenues from privatisation will 
make =
it more difficult to meet budget targets agreed with the 
International =
Monetary Fund.

Ultimately, and maybe much more quickly than anyone expects, the =
relatively tight fiscal and monetary policies that have been a 
condition =
for macro-economic stability in most of the region will be at risk. 
As =
Mr West warns: "If stagnation continues, there is a danger of a more 
=
aggressive return to policies that we thought had been abandoned."

Néstor Miguel Gorojovsky
nestorgoro en fibertel.com.ar

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 
_ _ _ _ _ 
"Aquel que no está orgulloso de su origen no valdrá nunca nada porque 
empieza 
por depreciarse a sí mismo".
Pedro Albizu Campos, compatriota puertorriqueño de todos los 
latinoamericanos.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 
_ _ _ _ _