[R-P] Fw: [R-P] Fw: [A-List] South American crisis. Me perdonan un texto en inglés

[La Señal radio y periodico]

> Julio: una versión comentada del artículo en cuestión, realizada por
Richard
> Lapper, aparece en la retiración de contratapa de El Cronista Comercial de
> ayer. ¡En castellano! Jejeje
> Va la síntesis:
> "Los resultados decepcionantes de las reformas liberales llevadas a cabo
en
> los años 90 han provocado en Latinoamérica una nostalgia del pasado que
está
> tomando cuerpo en políticas populistas en varios países, desde Venezuela
> hasta la Argentina".
> Ilustran con foto de Duhalde con cara de populista.
> Saludos.
> Gabriel Fernández
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Julio Fernández Baraibar" <julfb en sinectis.com.ar>
> To: "ReconquistaPopular" <reconquista-popular en lists.econ.utah.edu>
> Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 8:50 PM
> Subject: [R-P] Fw: [A-List] South American crisis. Me perdonan un texto en
> inglés
>
>
> > ***********************************************
> > A PARTIR DEL 1 DE MARZO DE 2002 R-P SOLO  ACEPTARA MENSAJES EN FORMATO
> TEXTO PLANO Y REBOTARA CUALQUIER OTRO MENSAJE. CONSULTE CON EL MODERADOR
SI
> TIENE ALGUNA DUDA.
> > ***********************************************
> >
> > Esto me ha llegado de otra lista, y pese al idioma, creo que vale la
> > pena, para aquellos que puedan leer inglés.
> > Es el punto de vista del Financial Times, sobre la crisis del
> > neoliberalismo.
> > Traduzco tan sólo un párrafo porque lo considero paradigmático y nos da,
> > a la larga, la razón.
> >  "Moisés Naím, el editor del Foreign Policy, asentado en Washington,
> > dice que hay un enorme apetito por una versión moderna del peronismo de
> > 1940 -la ideología política del populismo argentino. Pero los países
> > latinoamericanos carecen de recursos o de un fácil acceso a los mercados
> > de capitales para financiar semejante programa. "No hay nada más fácil
> > que despertarse en un cajón y denunciar las fallas de las reformas del
> > mercado", dijo el señor Naím. "El problema es la siguiente página del
> > discurso. Raras veces es algo más que una vaga expresión de deseos".
> >
> > Este señor Naím es, al parecer, un grandísimo hijo de puta, pero revela
> > que no estamos muy equivocados cuando decimos que hay que avanzar por el
> > lado del socialismo. Digo, es un decir, si España cae...
> >
> > Julio Fernández Baraibar
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Keaney Michael" <Michael.Keaney en mbs.fi>
> > To: "A-List (E-mail)" <a-list en lists.econ.utah.edu>
> > Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 7:55 AM
> > Subject: [A-List] South American crisis
> >
> >
> > > Back to revolution
> > > Of late the FT has been giving its coverage of Chavez's difficulties a
> > > high profile, with the rather obvious gloss of hope that he would
> > > eventually, and preferably sooner, stand aside or get pushed out.
> > Here,
> > > however, is a more general analysis illustrating how worried are many
> > of
> > > the loss of legitimacy suffered by neoliberalism in one of its most
> > > prominent laboratories.
> > >
> > >
> > > Disappointed by the results of two decades of liberal reform, many
> > Latin
> > > American citizens are once again embracing the politics of populism
> > and
> > > authoritarianism, writes Richard Lapper
> > > Financial Times, February 21 2002
> > >
> > > At times over the past few weeks, Latin America seems to have become
> > > trapped in a time warp. The precarious stability of the past decade or
> > > so has reverted to social and economic chaos, political violence and
> > > nationalism reminiscent of the 1970s and 1980s. Even the symbol of the
> > > new mood of protest - the pots and pans demonstration, or cacerolazo
> > > (pictured) - has been taken from Chilean demonstrators in 1973.
> > >
> > > Nowhere has the break with the optimism of the early 1990s been
> > greater
> > > than in Argentina, where at the end of last year first a banking
> > crisis
> > > and then a wave of riots led to debt default, devaluation and the
> > > downfall of two governments within the space of a fortnight. The
> > crisis
> > > threatens to undo many of the reforms that made Argentina a model for
> > > the so-called Washington consensus of market-friendly change barely
> > > three years ago.
> > >
> > > But Argentina's despair is simply an extreme version of a broader
> > > malaise. Across the region, Latin Americans are increasingly unhappy
> > > with the results of liberal reforms and feel cheated by the
> > politicians
> > > who promised they would benefit. Many are demanding more equitable
> > > economic and social policies and a tough line on growing crime and
> > > violence.
> > >
> > > In Argentina, President Eduardo Duhalde, a centre-right Peronist, has
> > > toyed with radical policies to deal with the crisis. And in other
> > > countries, populist or authoritarian politicians are making advances.
> > > Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez has responded to popular protests by
> > > signalling the next stage of his Bolivarian Revolution - a string of
> > > land reforms and other radical economic measures.
> > >
> > > In Colombia and Brazil, where presidential elections are due later
> > this
> > > year, radicals advocating a break with current policies are
> > capitalising
> > > on the discontent. In Colombia, Alvaro Uribe, an authoritarian
> > > independent candidate who has promised to end the country's peace
> > > process and launch a full-blooded attack on leftwing guerrillas, is
> > way
> > > ahead in the opinion polls.
> > >
> > > In Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, Luiz Inacio Lula da
> > > Silva, the candidate of the leftwing Workers' party, is leading the
> > > polls. Anthony Garotinho, the governor of Rio de Janeiro state and a
> > > leader of the smaller Brazilian Socialist party - has recently surged
> > > into third place with promises of extra social spending.
> > >
> > > Indeed, some analysts say the region's political pendulum is swinging
> > > back towards the populism and authoritarianism that have characterised
> > > its politics for much of the past 60 years. Populist measures such as
> > > state intervention and heavy social spending are gaining support.
> > "There
> > > is an enormous ideological frustration," says Alfredo Keller, a
> > > Caracas-based analyst.
> > >
> > > Since the late 1980s most Latin American countries have cut their
> > public
> > > sectors, sold loss-making state companies and embraced the market
> > > disciplines of low inflation and free trade. These short-term
> > sacrifices
> > > have - for the most part - increased stability. Yet relatively few
> > Latin
> > > Americans have seen the promised benefits.
> > >
> > > Battered by a succession of external crises and undermined by weak
> > > commodity prices and growing risk aversion among international
> > > investors, Latin America is falling further behind other regions of
> > the
> > > world. Last year the region's economies grew by only 0.5 per cent and
> > > this year they are expected to experience further stagnation.
> > >
> > > Unemployment levels remain stubbornly high and social inequality is
> > > growing. "In the 1990s there [was] the idea that democracy and the
> > > markets were the way to reduce poverty and improve the quality of
> > life,"
> > > says Mr Keller. "But neither democracy nor markets have solved the
> > > problem." Quite the opposite."
> > >
> > > This is bad news for the politicians who promised so much a decade
> > ago.
> > > In Argentina, Domingo Cavallo, the former economy minister whose
> > efforts
> > > to revive the economy ended in disaster, is a hate figure needing
> > police
> > > protection. Other reformers - such as Carlos Menem, the former
> > Argentine
> > > president - are deeply unpopular. Mexico's ex- president Carlos
> > Salinas,
> > > who led the privatisation drive of the early 1990s, and Peru's Alberto
> > > Fujimori, are in exile.
> > >
> > > In many countries there is widespread and growing anger about
> > corruption
> > > and the privileges that elected politicians sometimes enjoy. "People
> > are
> > > getting fed up with the political class. There is a general sense of
> > > injustice," says Nancy Birdsall, president of the Center for Global
> > > Development in Washington. "They don't feel the political channels are
> > > there to express society's point of view."
> > >
> > > Even before the Argentine cacerolazos this disaffection had generated
> > > street protests in Ecuador and Peru. The resulting social unrest led
> > two
> > > years ago to the resignations of presidents Jamil Mahuad and Mr
> > > Fujimori. So far, however, there has been little indication that
> > > populist economics represents a practical alternative to a
> > market-based
> > > approach to development.
> > >
> > > During the 1950s and 1960s - the heyday of Latin American populism -
> > > high commodity prices and the willingness of the US to support
> > > anti-Communist governments helped generate the resources for
> > governments
> > > to improve welfare provision and generate jobs. It was also easier
> > then
> > > to close an economy behind tariff barriers and capital controls. By
> > > contrast, today the prices of many commodities are close to all-time
> > > lows and the Communist threat is a distant memory.
> > >
> > > Moisés Naím, the editor of Washington-based Foreign Policy, says there
> > > is an enormous appetite for a modern version of 1940s Peronism - the
> > > political ideology of Argentine populism. But Latin American countries
> > > lack the resources, or easy access to capital markets, to finance such
> > a
> > > programme. "There is nothing easier [than] to get up on a box and
> > > denounce the failures of market reform," says Mr Naím. "The problem is
> > > the next page of the speech. It is rarely more than a vague statement
> > of
> > > desires."
> > >
> > > In Argentina, Mr Duhalde has backed down from some of the more radical
> > > pronouncements of his early days in office mainly because this would
> > > have cut him off from sources of external financial support. In
> > > Venezuela, the one Latin American country that has had the resources
> > for
> > > a more populist programme because of high oil prices in the past two
> > > years, Mr Chávez's experiment is in trouble. He has failed to deliver
> > on
> > > promises to end corruption and diversify the economy.
> > >
> > > But if populism is not the answer, the pressure is on governments to
> > > make market economies work more effectively and fairly. That would
> > > involve a series of so-called "second-generation" institutional and
> > > social reforms, originally mapped out nearly a decade ago. As Mr Naím
> > > puts it: "We have evidence that given time and good governance these
> > > things can work, whereas the alternative ends up with high debts and
> > > catastrophe."
> > >
> > > Most analysts agree that three countries - Chile, Brazil and Mexico -
> > > have made progress. The Chilean economy grew by an average of about 6
> > > per cent during the 1990s. The number of Chileans living in poverty
> > more
> > > than halved. Marta Lagos of Latinobarómetro, a research group, says
> > > these countries have succeeded in developing a new generation of
> > > politicians to succeed elites badly damaged by the political upheavals
> > > and economic crisis of the 1970s and 1980s. By contrast, the
> > > professional classes in many other countries have turned their backs
> > on
> > > politics, producing a leadership vacuum.
> > >
> > > But even these newer, more successful leaders face political
> > challenges.
> > > Ricardo Lagos, Chile's reformist socialist president, lost ground in
> > > congressional elections last year, for example. And with resources
> > more
> > > scarce and expectations growing, successful political management is
> > > becoming even more difficult. The scale of the challenge facing Latin
> > > American leaders means the politics of the quick fix are likely to
> > > remain attractive for some time.
> > >
> > > Michael Keaney
> > > Mercuria Business School
> > > Martinlaaksontie 36
> > > 01620 Vantaa
> > > Finland
> > >
> > > michael.keaney en mbs.fi
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> >
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