[R-G] Honduras: agreement or farce?

[Sid Shniad]

http://www.marxist.com/honduras-agreement-or-farce.htm

*Honduras: agreement or farce?*

*The “Tegucigalpa/San José Accord”, as it is now known,
contemplates the creation of a government of “unity and national
reconciliation”. In practice this means power sharing between the
coup plotters and Zelaya supporters*

Written by Jorge Martín Wednesday, 04 November 2009

A lot of noise had been made about the so-called “reinstatement of
Zelaya”, but is that what is really happening. So far a lot of
wheeling and dealing has taken place, but no concrete steps to put
Zelaya back as the legitimate president. We will see in the coming
days how real this agreement is.

On Monday October 26, the negotiations between representatives of
the legitimate president of Honduras, Mel Zelaya, and the regime
of Micheletti, installed by the coup which removed Zelaya on June
28, had broken down. There was agreement on most of the points
Zelaya’s delegates had raised earlier, bar one, that of Zelaya’s
reinstatement as President. Coup-installed “president” Micheletti
boasted that he would only resign if Zelaya agreed not to take over.

The arrival of a high level delegation from the United States,
headed by US Assistant Secretary of State Tom Shannon changed all
that. Micheletti, who had already received a phone call from
Hillary Clinton, was told in no uncertain terms that the US would
not recognise the November 29 elections called by the coup-regime
unless a deal based on the San José Accords was reached, including
the reinstatement of Zelaya.

As a matter of fact, as we have explained before, the terms of the
San José Accord were already extremely favourable for the coup
plotters: a national unity government, general amnesty for the
coup plotters, Zelaya giving up on his idea of convening of a
Constituent Assembly and the reinstatement of Zelaya only for a
couple of months until the January 28 hand over to a new
government elected in a poll conducted by the same institutions
which had carried out the coup against Zelaya.

Why did Micheletti resist signing such terms for such a long
time? He rightly feared that bringing Zelaya back to power, even
if gagged and bound hand and foot, would be seen as a victory for
the resistance movement which the people had organised for four
months. This was extremely dangerous, as it could even lead to a
victory for a resistance-backed candidate in the elections. If
elections were free and fair and the resistance stood united
behind trade union leader Carlos H Reyes, they could win the
presidency. Opinion polls also indicate strong support for the
candidate of the leftist Democratic Unification party for the
mayor of the capital Tegucigalpa.

However, the oligarchy was clearly divided. While one side saw
negotiations as a delaying tactic which in the end would force the
“international community” to recognise the result of their
November 29 elections, another side feared that a massive boycott
of those elections on the part of the people would make them
illegitimate. Washington threatened to increase the pressure on
the oligarchy (including their US bank accounts).

It seems that in the end a secret deal was reached between Shannon
and National Party candidate Pepe Lobo, although they strenuously
deny they had even met. The deal was to refer Zelaya’s
reinstatement back to Congress, where the votes of Zelaya’s
supporters in the Liberal Party (now split between Zelayistas and
supporters of the coup) added to those of Lobo’s National Party
congress members would have a majority. In exchange Zelaya and the
“international community” would recognise the November 29
elections, which Lobo hopes to win (if necessary by resorting to
fraud).

Zelaya, who had been holed up in the Brazilian embassy for 5 weeks
since he was smuggled back into the country on September 21,
welcomed the signing of the agreement as a victory. “It is a
triumph for Honduran democracy”, he said, “it signifies my return
to power in the coming days, and peace for Honduras”.

A communiqué by the National Front of Resistance Against the Coup
also hailed the agreement as a victory for the people.
Undoubtedly, had it not been for the heroic resistance of the
workers, peasants and youth of Honduras for more than 4 months,
the coup would have been consolidated and sooner or later
recognised as legitimate by the international community. But we
have to ask ourselves, what are the terms of the agreement, and,
are these terms even going to be put into practice?

The “Tegucigalpa/San José Accord”, as it is now known,
contemplates the creation of a government of “unity and national
reconciliation”. In practice this means power sharing between the
coup plotters and Zelaya supporters, a recipe for paralysis.
Furthermore, the budget that this government will operate on will
be one voted by Congress after the coup.

The second point of the agreement rules out any “direct or
indirect” appeals for the convening of a Constituent Assembly, and
any attempt to “promote or support any popular consultation with
the aim of reforming the constitution”. The immediate reason for
the oligarchy to organise the coup was to prevent a popular
consultation on the need to convene a Constituent Assembly. With
this point inserted into the agreement, the reasons for the coup
are vindicated.

Point three deals with the recognition of the elections called by
the coup-regime on November 29, and appeals to the people to
participate in the elections.

Point four states that the police and the army will be under the
control of the Supreme Electoral Court for the purpose of
organising and overseeing the elections for a period of one month
before Election Day. Since elections are to be held on November
29, this means that the Armed Forces and the police will be
outside of the control of the president.

Point five deals with the question of the reinstatement of the
president. What it actually says is that the negotiating
commission, “respectfully” asks National Congress, “after
consulting with the Supreme Court of Justice and other instances
it considers appropriate”, to bring the Executive Power to the
situation before June 28, until the end of its term of office on
January 27. Therefore, the decision of restoring Zelaya to power
is left in the hands of the same Congress which removed him, after
consulting the Supreme Court which provided “legitimacy” for his
removal.

What we have here is a situation where Zelaya makes all sorts of
concessions, while his actual reinstatement is not even clearly
stated! The agreement has a number of other points (particularly
an appeal for the international community to recognise the
elections and lift any sanctions) and ends with a point of thanks,
stressing the role played by the Organisation of American States
and US president Obama and US Secretary of State Clinton.

But this agreement, as bad as it is, is not even the end of the
saga. Congress is in fact suspended until after the elections, so
it would have to call an emergency meeting in order to vote on
reinstating Zelaya, who is still holed up in the Brazilian
embassy. Meeting on Tuesday, November 3, Congress leaders voted to
… pass the parcel. They have asked for an opinion from the Supreme
Court, the Attorney General and various other bodies on the
question of Zelaya’s reinstatement before they take a decision. In
the meantime Micheletti has interpreted the formation of a
national unity government by November 5, in his own particular
way. In a letter he has sent to Zelaya he has asked him to provide
10 names, from which members of the new government would be
chosen, implying that he will be doing the choosing.

So, from the point of view of Zelaya and the Resistance not much
has changed. The legitimate president is still in precarious
refuge at the Brazilian embassy, surrounded by riot police and the
army. Police and the army continue to beat up peaceful resistance
protestors. The coup plotters are still in power.

Meanwhile, Washington is spinning the agreement as a victory for
its diplomatic strategy, the oligarchy has come closer to getting
international recognition for its elections on November 29, and
Micheletti, the coup plotter, is still president.

It is difficult to predict what will happen in the next few days
and hours. Additional pressure from Washington might finally force
the reinstatement of Zelaya (gagged, bound hand and foot and only
for a couple of months). There could be more trickery on the part
of the oligarchy to further delay his reinstatement.

The only real way to break this deadlock would be for the masses
to irrupt on the scene again and take the situation into their own
hands. They can only trust in their own forces, no one else.