[R-G] Russia outmaneuvered U.S. over air base, analysts say

[Anthony Fenton]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/63357.html

Russia outmaneuvered U.S. over air base, analysts say

By Tom Lasseter | McClatchy Newspapers

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan — When Kyrgyzstan announced last month that it was  
expelling a U.S. air base after Russia promised it $2 billion-plus in  
aid and loans, American officials said the decision wasn't final and a  
U.S. presence was still under discussion.

After the Kyrgyz parliament ratified the accord with near unanimity  
and the country's Foreign Ministry issued a notice to vacate in 180  
days, however, Russia's apparent advance at U.S. expense is almost  
certain.

The aid package that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's  
government crafted was grounded in a hard-knuckled, realpolitik  
approach to this impoverished, landlocked Central Asian country.

It appears to be an offer the Kyrgyz government couldn't refuse. All  
the elements, starting with what had seemed to be its most modest  
component — a $150 million strings-free grant to Kyrgyz President  
Kurmanbek Bakiyev — filled needs that the United States either didn't  
see or wouldn't match.

While the Bush administration championed democratic reform in Central  
Asia, a policy that deeply alienates strongman rulers in the  
corruption-plagued region, Putin has focused on putting cash on the  
table and making deals.

The Manas Air Base — which is at the main airport outside the Kyrgyz  
capital and is used mainly to ferry troops in and out of Afghanistan —  
became a sore spot for the Kremlin in the years after the U.S. set it  
up in late 2001, Russian and Kyrgyz officials acknowledge.

Putin had smoothed the way for U.S. military installations to be built  
across Central Asia in the wake of the 9-11 terrorist attacks, but he  
felt that the Bush White House barely acknowledged the gesture.

"What Bush offered Putin was a hat and a barbecue in Crawford, and  
that was it," said Alexei Pushkov, a prominent Russian TV commentator  
with extensive contacts in Moscow political circles.

That anger turned to suspicion as the White House backed a series of  
pro-democracy revolutions in what Russia calls its "near abroad":  
Georgia in 2003, Ukraine the following year and Kyrgyzstan in 2005.  
Plans for a U.S. missile defense shield on Russia's borders followed  
those political upheavals.

While the U.S. government said that those developments had nothing to  
do with Moscow, there was deep suspicion in the Kremlin that the  
Americans had begun a strategy of encircling Russia. Putin and his  
government began to push back against U.S. interests in Central Asia,  
wanting to be sure that they and not Washington were the ones calling  
the shots.

"Russia enjoys the role of a gatekeeper. It's trying to defend this.  
It's eager to spend huge money in order to keep its geopolitical and  
geostrategic role," said Nikolai Petrov, scholar in residence at the  
Carnegie Moscow Center and a critic of Putin.

The Kyrgyz, meanwhile, came to see advantage in the U.S.-Russia  
competition.

"It's a political game," said Erik Arsaliyev, the chairman of the  
Kyrgyz parliament's foreign affairs committee. "No one is saying it,  
but everyone knows that's what's happening. We have become a puppet in  
the hands of these two countries."

The small nation of just 5.3 million people, wedged between China and  
Kazakhstan, has long been a crossroads for great powers. Bishkek today  
is home to both faded Soviet monuments and the American University of  
Central Asia.

The crucial element in the transaction was the $150 million grant,  
according to Topchubek Turgunaliev, an opposition leader in Bishkek.  
Even if Russia, which is facing serious financial trouble with low oil  
prices, doesn't come through with all $2 billion-plus, that $150  
million will give Bakiyev's government deep pockets for presidential  
elections scheduled next year.

Bakiyev's office and the Foreign Ministry in Bishkek declined to  
comment for this story.

The bigger part of the aid, more than $1.5 billion earmarked for a  
planned hydroelectric project — of which Russia reportedly will retain  
50 percent control — fits a pattern of the Kremlin consolidating its  
grip on the region's natural resources.

_ In 2007, Russia struck an agreement with natural gas-rich  
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to build a pipeline from the Caspian Sea  
to pump gas for Russia. In 2008, Russia and Uzbekistan agreed to build  
a pipeline through Uzbekistan to move Uzbek and Turkmen gas to Russia.

_ South of Kyrgyzstan, Russia has invested about $700 million in a  
major Tajik hydroelectric station scheduled to open this year, of  
which Moscow owns 75 percent.

The two hydroelectric projects could affect water and power supplies  
for much of Central Asia. "They (the Kremlin) will be able to decide  
how much water the different sides should have; this is a lot of  
power," said Nur Omarov, a political analyst in Bishkek who previously  
worked as a consultant for the Kyrgyz president's national security  
council. "That gives you control of the whole region."

Marat Kazakpaev, who's also a Bishkek-based analyst, said that Russia  
had been much better than the United States at targeting the needs of  
countries in the area. However, the aid from Moscow comes with a high  
price, said Kazakpaev, whose research center has worked with Western  
groups.

"Russia has been working openly in economic terms to trap them  
(Central Asian countries) so that they depend on Russia, and then they  
link this economic dependence to political goals," Kazakpaev said. "By  
that point, the countries have nowhere else to turn."

Kazakpaev said he worried that his country was heading toward similar  
straits.

When Bakiyev came to office after the U.S.-supported "Tulip  
Revolution" in 2005, there were hopes in the West that his  
administration would be a model for democracy in Central Asia, similar  
to the way Georgia and its "Rose Revolution" were viewed in the  
Caucasus. As Bakiyev sought to strengthen his political base, however,  
his allegiances drifted away from Washington toward the Kremlin.

After a U.S. serviceman shot and killed a Kyrgyz truck driver at the  
air base in 2006, Russian-language newspapers and TV stations played  
the story big. "The Russian media was just waiting for this case,"  
said Tursunbai Bakir Uulu, an opponent of the U.S. and Russian  
military presence in his country who served for six years as  
Kyrgyzstan's ombudsman, a human rights post. "The content of Russian- 
language mass media in Kyrgyzstan" — especially influential in the  
capital — "is of course controlled by Russia. They were saying how can  
a person be killed like this? . . . It was a very good public- 
relations campaign by Russia."

Officials at the air base also were criticized for failing to reach  
out to the local population as Russian-backed media hyped any hint of  
a problem: the shooting, a plane crash or allegations of environmental  
damage.

As Kyrgyz and Russian officials offered their explanations for the air  
base being removed last month, public affairs officers at the base  
didn't respond to McClatchy's requests for interviews. The U.S.  
Embassy in Bishkek declined any comment, even off the record.

After the 2006 shooting, the estrangement between the Kyrgyz  
government and the West grew. Western organizations widely denounced  
alleged vote-rigging during Kyrgyzstan's 2007 parliamentary elections,  
in which Bakiyev's party took 71 out of 90 seats.

At the same time, political opposition groups that Bakiyev had shoved  
out of the way began to threaten mass protests. There was widespread  
discontent about corruption. Transparency International's annual  
corruption rankings have shown Kyrgyzstan slipping from 118th best in  
the world in 2003 to 166th last year, below Angola. Chronic energy  
shortages and an economic downturn intensified the pressure on Bakiyev.

The president pushed the United States for more rent for Manas Air  
Base, but he didn't receive a fast answer. So he turned to the  
Russians, who were eager to talk.