[R-G] [BillTottenWeblog] Humanity in the Capitalist Cul-de-sac

[Bill Totten]

As a result of 200 years of capitalism, humanity is deep in a very
dangerous cul-de-sac which could result in barbarism on an unprecedented
scale

by Daniel Tanuro

climateandcapitalism.com (June 05 2009)


Climate change is a major challenge for humanity and the environment.
Thirty percent of animal and vegetable species could disappear in a few
decades, due to rapid changes in rainfall, temperature, acidity, et
cetera. Hundreds of millions of people live under the threat of rising
sea-levels, droughts, floods and disease. Billions more could suffer water
scarcity. The poor are the most exposed, especially in Africa, where the
productivity of non irrigated agriculture could decline by as much as
fifty percent, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).

Can a catastrophe be avoided? It depends on where you're living. The
people of Tuvalu {1} for instance, will probably have to move before the
end of this century. Climate change is a reality, affecting millions of
people on Earth. It must be mitigated, but some adaptation to its effects
is unavoidable and necessary. The more quickly and radically we address
the basic causes of global warming to mitigate it, the less we will have
to adapt. On the other hand, the less we mitigate, the more we will have
to adapt, and the more the poor will suffer the negative consequences. At
a certain point, though, adaptation will become practically impossible.

The IPCC 4th Assessment Report proposes six climate stabilization
scenarios. The most radical requires a cut in global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by fifty to 85% before 2050, with a peak before 2015. Because
the "developed world" is historically responsible for more than seventy
percent of global warming, it should reduce its own emissions by eighty to
95%, if it follows the IPCC {2}. But this is not enough: the situation is
so serious now that no escape can be found without the participation of
countries like Brazil, India, China, South Africa and Mexico.

The main GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2); the main cause of its accumulation
in the atmosphere is the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas)
and this burning provides the world with eighty percent of its energy. As
a consequence, a radical reduction in GHG emissions in forty years would
require a herculean effort, with ominous social, technical and economic
implication. But there is simply no alternative: even the most radical
IPCC scenario foresees a temperature rise of between two percent and 2.4
percent Celsius. This is above the threshold where climate change is
thought to have dangerous human and environmental consequences {3}.

Can we make that effort? From a scientific point of view, the answer is:
"yes, we can". We can stop burning finite supplies of fossil fuels and use
renewable, mostly solar, energy sources (wind energy, energy of the
oceans, biomass, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, geothermal power et
cetera). The technical potential of these sources is seventeen times the
global energy demand in 2001 {4}. By the way, this potential could improve
very quickly if a clear political priority was given to the research on
renewable energy, instead of nuclear, or even fossil energy. In other
words, humanity is not doomed to energy scarcity and the societies in the
South are not doomed to poverty and underdevelopment .

How could we make this effort? The answer is mainly social and political,
not technological, for three reasons:

1. Renewable sources are still more expensive than fossil sources and this
situation will prevail for 25 to thirty years. 
2. The global distribution of wealth has to be dealt with in order to
provide poor countries, and the poor in general, with the considerable
means necessary for the clean development and adaptation of these
resources. 
3. The energy transition is complex. It doesn't boil down to the
replacement of one fuel with another in the same energy system: a
different energy system is necessary, with different infrastructure and
equipment. There will be a transitional period in which the building of
new infrastructure will require an increase in conventional energy
consumption . This will necessitate reductions in consumption elsewhere.
However, a new system in place would be one in which there is a new way to
satisfy human needs, even another view of these needs and another way to
determine them. In short, another society.

To clarify this point, let us take the example of the transportation
sector. The easiest and cheapest way to replace petrol is to produce
agrofuels. But agrofuels compete with crop production, and therefore with
the satisfaction of fundamental human needs. As we have experienced over
the last few years, we risk seeing the poor starving because wheat, maize,
cassava, palm oil and other crops fundamental to people's lives are used
to produce "green petrol". Massive agrofuel production for export
intensifies speculative pressure on the land (at the expense of
traditional communities) and has very negative environmental impacts in
terms of pollution and biodiversity.