[R-G] Pakistan plan to attack Taliban haven promises wider war

[Anthony Fenton]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/117/story/69137.html

Pakistan plan to attack Taliban haven promises wider war

By Saeed Shah | McClatchy Newspapers

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Waziristan, the remote area that's the epicenter  
of Taliban and al Qaida militants in Pakistan, is set to become the  
next war zone in the nation's fight against Islamic extremists, where  
clashes between insurgents and the army erupted over the weekend.

So far, there are just skirmishes in Waziristan but the key U.S. ally  
plans a full-scale military offensive there this summer, according to  
Pakistani and Western officials, a fight that is certain to be  
deadlier than the current operation in Swat valley and with profound  
international repercussions.

Western leaders have repeatedly said that international terrorist  
plots are being hatched in Waziristan, while the area provides a  
sanctuary for Afghan insurgents and al Qaida leaders, possibly  
including Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al Zawahiri.

South Waziristan, a part of the wild tribal territory that lies along  
the Afghan border, houses Pakistan's public enemy number one, warlord  
Baitullah Mehsud, who has thousands of armed followers around him. The  
insurgency across the country is fueled by fighters and suicide  
bombers sent by Mehsud. North Waziristan is also under the control of  
a Taliban warlord.

Pakistani forces are making rapid progress through Swat valley, in the  
North West Frontier Province, and they've previously claimed to have  
cleared two other areas that were under Taliban domination, Bajaur and  
Mohmand, which are part of the tribal territory.

But the specter of Waziristan, the fountainhead of extremism, now looms.

"The final battle will be fought in South Waziristan," said Asad  
Munir, formerly head of military intelligence for the tribal area and  
the North West Frontier Province. "They've started it (the offensive  
against the insurgents) and if they leave it mid-way, they should be  
mentally prepared to hand this country over to the Taliban. They have  
to complete it. There is no other way."

Pakistan has launched multiple operations against Taliban on its soil  
since 2004 but critics say that each time they have been half- 
heartedly pursued and ended with a truce that left the militants in  
control, including a peace deal in South Waziristan in early 2008.

But, under intense international pressure, the current offensive in  
Swat, and before that the recent operation in Bajaur, have finally hit  
the insurgents hard.

Failure now would hugely embolden the militants, Asad said. Taking  
back Swat and the tribal area, especially Waziristan, would deny the  
insurgents the vast tracts of territory that they now control, where  
training camps and schools for indoctrinating suicide bombers are  
freely run.

While Washington and other western allies pressed Pakistan to take  
action in Swat, which lies just 100 miles from the capital Islamabad,  
the valley is not thought to be a significant base for Afghan  
insurgents or al Qaida. But Waziristan is seen by Western countries,  
from the United States to Spain, as crucial to their homeland security.

"Waziristan is at the heart of Western counter-terrorism interests in  
this region," said a Western security official based in Pakistan, who  
could not be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.  
"Waziristan would hit the sweet spot for us. But we'd rather not have  
a campaign than a campaign (in Waziristan) that failed."

Waziristan provides a crucial safe haven to Afghan insurgents, as well  
as a launching pad for Pakistani jihadists heading to Afghanistan. It  
is also a headquarters for international terrorists.

The offensive in Swat has led to bloody terrorist reprisals, with a  
chilling threat issued last week by the Taliban to escalate the  
attacks by striking some of Pakistan's biggest cities.

Revenge for army action in Waziristan could cause carnage across the  
country, severely testing hard-won public support for taking on the  
Taliban, even destabilizing the country. It would also add to the  
humanitarian crisis of people displaced by fighting, which stands now  
at some 3 million.

Militarily, Waziristan poses a huge challenge to Pakistani forces. Its  
harsh mountainous terrain is ideally suited to guerrilla warfare,  
while the Taliban is concentrated in the area, where they have been  
entrenched for years, allowing them to build tunnels, bunkers and  
fortifications.

Unlike Swat, where the population largely welcomed the army once they  
saw that it was a serious operation, the fierce tribal people of  
Waziristan are deeply hostile to outsiders, including the Pakistani  
military.

South Waziristan, covering 2,500 square miles, has lawless regions to  
three sides — North Waziristan to the north, Baluchistan province to  
the south and the Afghan province of Paktika to the west, providing  
ready escape routes to the insurgents.

Analysts said that a successful operation would need to seal off South  
Waziristan, especially the option of retreat into Afghanistan,  
requiring strong co-ordination with the U.S.-led forces across the  
border. Joint Pakistan-U.S. planning for the operation is likely to be  
underway, mirroring the collaboration undertaken last year when the  
Bajaur offensive began and U.S. forces intercepted fleeing Pakistani  
Taliban in the bordering Afghan province of Kunar. The Waziristan  
campaign should coincide with the arrival of the extra "surge" of U.S.  
troops in Afghanistan.

"They should co-operate with the Americans and employ the classic  
'hammer and anvil' technique, with Pakistan forces isolating South  
Waziristan and pushing them (the Taliban) towards the border," said  
Javed Hussain, a former Brigadier with Pakistan's Special Services  
Group commando unit. "That's where the American forces should act as  
the anvil, and the Pakistani forces as the hammer. In between the two,  
the insurgents are crushed."

The operation in Swat valley, launched on 7 May, could be over in "two  
to three days" senior Pakistan defense official Syed Athar Ali told a  
conference in Singapore Sunday. There is speculation that Waziristan  
could follow as early as this month (June), though July or August may  
be more likely given the need to stabilize Swat.

Sensing the coming showdown, Taliban in South Waziristan have started  
to attack army bases and check posts in the area, with 25 militants  
and at three soldiers reported killed by the authorities Sunday.

Shah is McClatchy's special correspondent in Pakistan and is based in  
Islamabad.

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