[R-G] [BillTottenWeblog] New comment on Peak Money and the Shambles from Peak Oil

[Bill Totten]

Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. has left a new comment on your post "Peak
Money and the Shambles from Peak Oil":

The Price of oil will rise again, soon.

The top story of the year is that global crude oil production peaked in
2008.

The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this
issue.

Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then
plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at
maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear
indication of Peak Oil.

Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very
high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per
day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor
of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1)
http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_monthly.pdf.

Peak Oil is now.

Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to
the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and
Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist
(2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist
(2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi
Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008
to 2018)

Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.

Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as
supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between
supply and demand and drive prices even higher.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now
decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day
by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will
be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and
more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is
high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations,
once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be
higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global
oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus,
conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates
significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor
capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield
electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18
wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent
scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled:
“Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically
lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by
growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy
sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining
taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments
will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance.
Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway
workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the
highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge
maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and
roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power
grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for
pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways
out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power
grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of
gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building
systems.

Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/



Posted by Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. to Bill Totten's Weblog at 9:46 PM,
January 15, 2009