[R-G] Politically, Hamas May Have Won

[Anthony Fenton]

MIDEAST:  Politically, Hamas May Have Won
Analysis by Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=45651

CAIRO, Feb 3 (IPS) - Despite declarations of victory by Israel, the  
military assault on the Gaza Strip failed to achieve its stated aims,  
many analysts say. The assault, and even its exceptional brutality,  
may only have vindicated the notion of resistance among the Arab public.

"The steadfastness of the resistance in Gaza in the face of Israeli  
military power has resuscitated the idea of armed resistance," Gamal  
Fahmi, political analyst and managing editor of opposition weekly Al- 
Arabi Al-Nassiri told IPS.

 From Dec. 27 to Jan. 17, Israel pounded targets throughout the Gaza  
Strip from air, land and sea, in ostensible retaliation for rockets  
fired at Israel by Palestinian resistance factions, chief among them  
Hamas. The latter two weeks of the campaign brought a parallel ground  
offensive that encountered fierce resistance in and around a number of  
population centres.

The campaign only came to a close - albeit an uncertain one -  
following Israel's announcement of a unilateral ceasefire Jan. 17. The  
next day, Palestinian resistance factions also announced a temporary  
cessation of hostilities, but not before launching several rocket  
salvoes at targets inside Israel.

Over the course of the following week, Israel gradually withdrew its  
ground forces from the Gaza Strip. When the dust settled, more than  
1,300 Gazans lay dead, mostly women and children. Thousands were  
injured.

Israeli military officials hastened to declare the operation a  
success. Some Egyptian commentators, however, say that despite the  
high civilian death toll and infrastructural damage the conflict  
represented a strategic victory for the Palestinian resistance.

"Victory in war isn't determined by casualty rates but by the  
achievement of war aims," Abdelhalim Kandil, political analyst and  
editor-in-chief of independent weekly Sout Al-Umma wrote Monday (Jan.  
26). "And Israel failed to achieve its stated aims after more than  
three weeks of punishing Gaza."

He said Israel's ‘unilateral ceasefire’ - for which Israel received  
nothing in return from the Hamas-led resistance - was unprecedented in  
the history of Israeli war-making. "The resistance called its own  
ceasefire one day later, but not before demonstrating that its  
capacity for launching rockets at Israel remained intact," Kandil wrote.

Gamal Mazloum, former Egyptian Army general, said Israel's stated war  
objectives changed more than once mid-campaign.

"Over the course of the conflict, Israeli officials went from saying  
that the goal of the operation was 'removing' Hamas, to 'degrading'  
its rocket-launching capacity, to 'teaching Hamas a lesson’," Mazloum  
told IPS. "But the unexpected steadfastness of the resistance forced  
them to conclude operations without achieving any of these. Now Israel  
says its chief aim is to 'cut off weapons smuggling' to Gaza."

According to Hamas officials, Israel's real objective was clear from  
the outset.

"The reason for Israel's aggression is to change the Hamas government  
in the Gaza Strip," Hamas leader Musa Abu Marzook was quoted as saying  
during the conflict Jan. 13. "They have been thinking about this ever  
since Hamas won the elections."

This was not the first attempt at forcible removal of the resistance  
group.

Shortly after Hamas's surprise victory in the 2006 legislative  
elections, the U.S. covertly armed and trained elements of the  
Palestinian Fatah movement, Hamas's secular rival, with the aim of  
wiping out the Hamas leadership in Gaza in one fell swoop. Based in  
the West Bank, Fatah currently heads the Palestinian Authority (PA)  
under the leadership of western-backed PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

The scheme, coordinated by U.S. Lt-Gen Keith Dayton and Fatah  
strongman Mohamed Dahlan, later became known as the Dayton Plan.

But after learning of the plot in mid-June 2007, Hamas pre-emptively  
routed its Fatah adversaries and seized control of Gaza. Hamas has  
maintained control of the Gaza Strip ever since. As a result, Gaza  
been subject to an internationally-sanctioned embargo that has brought  
it to humanitarian ruin.

Hamas officials say that Israel's latest assault was simply an attempt  
to finish the job that Fatah - with U.S. and Israeli support - failed  
to do in 2007.

"They tried to push Fatah to stand and fight Hamas, but we defeated  
them in the Gaza Strip," Marzouk said in a reference to the failed  
Dayton plot. "So Israel took action themselves."

Several commentators agree that both campaigns had the same objective  
- namely, the obliteration of Hamas. "Both the Dayton Plan and  
Israel's recent war aimed - and failed - to remove Hamas from power in  
Gaza," said Mazloum.

Despite the Dayton Plan's significance in the chronology of the  
conflict, it is seldom referred to in current reporting by the western  
mainstream media.

"The Dayton affair is largely ignored - but then facts concerning  
Palestine are always subject to deceptions and disinformation in the  
western media," Fahmi said. "The western press also rarely mentions  
that Hamas won democratic elections in 2006, or the extent of  
corruption in the PA."

Along with Israel's failure to achieve its stated war aims,  
commentators note that the war on Gaza - horrific images of which have  
been transmitted around the world - represented a public relations  
catastrophe for Israel.

"The war revealed Israeli criminality to the entire world," said  
Fahmi. "It also served to put the Palestinian cause back on the  
conscience of the international community."

"Israel's image is now at an all-time low," said Mazloum, pointing to  
the massive demonstrations worldwide in solidarity with Gaza. "Israel  
is already suffering from the effects of this crisis, politically,  
economically and socially."

Mazloum attributed Israel's uncharacteristic unilateral ceasefire  
declaration to mounting worldwide outrage over its assault on Gaza's  
largely defenceless civilian population.

"There was an unprecedented explosion of popular rage in the Arab  
world, which put most Arab governments under tremendous pressure and  
could have led to serious regional escalations," said Mazloum. "The  
blatant carnage also eventually led to pressure on Israel by the  
international community to stop the aggression."

Both domestically and regionally, he said, Hamas was already reaping  
the fruits of what amounted to a political victory.

"Both in Gaza and the Fatah-controlled West Bank, the people have  
rallied around Hamas as defender of the Palestinian cause," said  
Mazloum. "And on the regional level, Hamas proved its staying power  
and showed it cannot be simply removed from the equation. Egypt, for  
one, will now have no choice but to deal with Hamas as a political  
reality."

According to Fahmi, the most notable outcome has been a resurgence of  
the notion of armed resistance to Israel - after some 30 years of  
fruitless negotiations.

"Resistance doesn't mean irrational violence devoid of political  
considerations, as its detractors would suggest," he said. "On the  
contrary, it is - particularly in the face of brutal occupation - the  
only logical choice." (END/2009)