[R-G] Restructuring the U.S. Transport System: The Potential of High-Speed Rail

[Richard Menec]

http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB3ch11_ss5.htm

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RESTRUCTURING THE U.S. TRANSPORT SYSTEM: THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL

Lester R. Brown

Aside from the overriding need to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) 
levels to stabilize climate, there are several other compelling reasons for 
countries everywhere to restructure their transport systems, including the 
need to prepare for falling oil production, to alleviate traffic congestion, 
and to reduce air pollution. The U.S. car-centered transportation model, 
with three cars for every four people, that much of the world aspires to 
will not likely be viable over the long term even for the United States, 
much less for everywhere else.

The shape of future transportation systems centers around the changing role 
of the automobile. This in turn is being influenced by the transition from a 
predominantly rural global society to a largely urban one. By 2020 close to 
55 percent of us will be living in cities, where the role of cars is 
diminishing. In Europe, where this process is well along, car sales in 
almost every country have peaked and are falling.

With world oil output close to peaking, there will not be enough 
economically recoverable oil to support a world fleet expansion along U.S. 
lines or, indeed, to sustain the U.S. fleet. Oil shocks are now a major 
security risk. The United States, where 88 percent of the 133 million 
working people travels to work by car, is dangerously vulnerable.

Beyond the desire to stabilize climate, drivers almost everywhere are facing 
gridlock and worsening congestion that are raising both frustration and the 
cost of doing business. In the United States, the average commuting time for 
workers has increased steadily since the early 1980s. The automobile 
promised mobility, but after a point its growing numbers in an increasingly 
urbanized world offer only the opposite: immobility.

While the future of transportation in cities lies with a mix of light rail, 
buses, bicycles, cars, and walking, the future of intercity travel over 
distances of 500 miles or less belongs to high-speed trains. Japan, with its 
high-speed bullet trains, has pioneered this mode of travel. Operating at 
speeds up to 190 miles per hour, Japan's bullet trains carry almost a 
million passengers a day. On some of the heavily used intercity high-speed 
rail lines, trains depart every three minutes.

Beginning in 1964 with the 322-mile line from Tokyo to Osaka, Japan's 
high-speed rail network now stretches for 1,360 miles, linking nearly all 
its major cities. One of the most heavily traveled links is the original 
line between Tokyo and Osaka, where the bullet trains carry 117,000 
passengers a day. The transit time of two hours and 30 minutes between the 
two cities compares with a driving time of eight hours. High-speed trains 
save time as well as energy.

Although Japan's bullet trains have carried billions of passengers over 40 
years at high speeds, there has not been a single casualty. Late arrivals 
average 6 seconds. If we were selecting seven wonders of the modern world, 
Japan's high-speed rail system surely would be among them.

While the first European high-speed line, from Paris to Lyon, did not begin 
operation until 1981, Europe has made enormous strides since then. As of 
early 2007 there were 3,034 miles (4,883 kilometers) of high-speed rail 
operating in Europe, with 1,711 more miles to be added by 2010. The goal is 
to have a Europe-wide high-speed rail system integrating the new eastern 
countries including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, into a 
continental network by 2020.

Once high-speed links between cities begin operating, they dramatically 
raise the number of people traveling by train between cities. For example, 
when the Paris-to-Brussels link, a distance of 194 miles that is covered by 
train in 85 minutes, opened, the share of those traveling between the two 
cities by train rose from 24 percent to 50 percent. The car share dropped 
from 61 percent to 43 percent, and CO2-intensive plane travel virtually 
disappeared.

Carbon dioxide emissions per passenger mile on Europe's high-speed trains 
are one third those of its cars and only one fourth those of its planes. In 
the Plan B economy, CO2 emissions from trains will essentially be zero, 
since they will be powered by green electricity. In addition to being 
comfortable and convenient, these rail links reduce air pollution, 
congestion, noise, and accidents. They also free travelers from the 
frustrations of traffic congestion and long airport security lines.

Existing international links are being joined by links between Paris and 
Stuttgart, Frankfurt and Paris, and a link from the Channel Tunnel to London 
that cuts the London-Paris travel time to scarcely two hours and 20 minutes. 
On the newer lines, trains are operating at up to 200 miles per hour.

There is a huge gap in high-speed rail between Japan and Europe on one hand 
and the rest of the world on the other. The United States has the Acela 
Express that links Washington, New York, and Boston, but neither its speed 
nor its reliability comes close to the trains in Japan and Europe.

China is beginning to develop high-speed trains linking some of its major 
cities. The one introduced in 2007 from Beijing to Shanghai reduced travel 
time from 12 to 10 hours. China now has 3,750 miles of high-speed track and 
plans to double this by 2020.

In the United States, the need both to cut carbon emissions and to prepare 
for shrinking oil supplies calls for a shift in investment from roads and 
highways to railways. In 1956 U.S. President Eisenhower launched the 
interstate highway system, justifying it on national security grounds. Today 
the threat of climate change and the insecurity of oil supplies both argue 
for the construction of a high-speed electrified rail system, for both 
passenger and freight traffic. The relatively small amount of additional 
electricity needed could come from renewable sources, mainly wind farms.

The passenger rail system would be modeled after those of Japan and Europe. 
A high-speed transcontinental line that averaged 170 miles per hour would 
mean traveling coast-to-coast in 15 hours, even with stops in major cities 
along the way. There is a parallel need to develop an electrified national 
rail freight network that would greatly reduce the need for long-haul 
trucks.

Any meaningful global effort to cut transport CO2 emissions begins with the 
United States, which consumes more gasoline than the next 20 countries 
combined, including Japan, China, Russia, Germany, and Brazil. The United 
States-with 238 million vehicles out of the global 860 million, or roughly 
28 percent of the world total-not only has the largest automobile fleet in 
the world but is near the top in miles driven per car and near the bottom in 
fuel efficiency.

Three initiatives are needed in the United States. One is a meaningful 
gasoline tax. Phasing in a gasoline tax of 40¢ per gallon per year for the 
next 12 years and offsetting it with a reduction in income taxes would raise 
the U.S. gasoline tax to the $4-5 per gallon prevailing today in Europe. 
Combined with the rising price of gas itself, such a tax should be more than 
enough to encourage a shift to more fuel-efficient cars. The second measure 
is raising the fuel-efficiency standard from the 22 miles per gallon of cars 
sold in 2006 to 45 miles per gallon by 2020, a larger increase than the 35 
miles per gallon approved by Congress in late 2007. This would help move the 
U.S. automobile industry in a fuel-efficient direction. Third, reaching CO2 
reduction goals depends on a heavy shift of transportation funds from 
highway construction to urban transit and intercity rail construction.

For more information on restructuring transport systems, including the use 
of buses, bicycles, and congestion charging, see Chapter 10, "Designing 
Cities for People," in Lester Brown's latest book, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to 
Save Civilization, available on-line at 
www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB3/index.htm.

Adapted from Chapter 11, "Raising Energy Efficiency," in Lester R. Brown, 
Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & 
Company, 2008), available for free downloading and purchase at 
www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB3/index.htm

Released February 3, 2009

Earth Policy Institute Email: epi at earth-policy.org

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