[R-G] CANADA: Energy Politics Could Make or Break Liberals

[Anthony Fenton]

CANADA:  Energy Politics Could Make or Break Liberals
By Chris Arsenault
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=43890

VANCOUVER, Sep 16 (IPS) - While U.S. media pundits dub the race for  
the White House as a battle between the "warrior" and the "orator",  
Canada's current election campaign might be characterised as "the  
meanie" versus "the weenie".

As Canada's contest enters its second week, the Conservative Party,  
led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper -- "the meanie" -- is looking to  
take majority control over Parliament, boosting its current minority  
government status. Stéphane Dion, leader of the opposition Liberals --  
and "the weenie" -- is fighting for his political career.

The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) and separatist Bloc  
Québécois aim to boost their Parliamentary presence while Elizabeth  
May's Green Party hopes to win its first official seat.

Currently, out of 308 Parliamentary seats, Conservatives hold 127,  
Liberals 95, Bloc Québécois 48, New Democrats 30, independents 4,  
while 4 others are vacant. The election will take place on Oct. 14.

Canada's government is ostensibly bicameral, with an elected  
Parliament and an appointed Senate, but senators hold little more than  
ceremonial power. To fully implement their agenda, the Conservatives  
need to win 155 Parliamentary seats in a first past the post voting  
system.

"Whenever it seems like the Conservatives are on the verge of winning  
a majority, there is some pull back, particularly in the large urban  
areas where people become concerned about the Conservatives' social  
policy and what could change in a majority with them fully unrolling  
their agenda," Paul Adams, executive director of the polling firm EKOS  
Research Associates, told IPS.

Supported by the religious right, the Harper Conservatives are accused  
of harbouring anti-gay and anti-abortion sentiments -- views which  
aren't popular with the majority of Canadians. Harper is also seen as  
too close to the George W. Bush administration south of the border.

"I'd say Harper is the most conservative prime minister in Canada's  
history," York University political science professor James Laxer told  
IPS.

An economist by training, Harper led the National Citizens Coalition,  
a right-wing lobby group with the goal of dismantling Canada's public  
health care system, before he entered electoral politics.

"Coming from Alberta [a petroleum-rich western province] Harper is  
closely tied to the big oil companies," said Dr. Laxer. "The one thing  
he never wants to see is any constraints on the development of the oil  
industry."

Dion, the Liberal leader, has staked his campaign on a carbon tax,  
which would constrain oil development. A bookish former professor from  
Quebec who does not communicate well in English, Dion proposes to tax  
carbon dioxide emissions in order to control global warming, a policy  
supported by many economists and environmentalists but loathed in the  
oil patch.

Like other countries, Canada is feeling the effects of an economic  
downturn, especially in the manufacturing heartlands of Quebec and  
Ontario, and many voters are sceptical of new taxes. The social  
democratic NDP also oppose the carbon tax, favouring instead a cap and  
trade deal for greenhouse gas emissions.

While the carbon tax won't directly affect the price of gasoline  
motorists buy at the pumps, recent spikes in gas prices likely make  
voters leery of anything that might make driving more expensive and  
Dion has been unable to properly communicate the carbon tax plan in a  
simple fashion.

Some analysts, however, say that dealing with energy politics is the  
key to Canada's economic future. "The most important underlying  
issues, in elections both north and south of the border, have to do  
with energy sovereignty and trade," said Joe Cressy with the Polaris  
Institute, a left leaning think-tank.

"With the Obama-Biden campaign talking about re-negotiating NAFTA [the  
North American Free Trade Agreement], Canadian political leaders  
should be trying to get solid progressive proposals in the  
renegotiation," Cressy told IPS.

Under NAFTA's proportionality clause, Canada cannot limit its oil  
exports to the U.S. without decreasing its own consumption in tandem.  
Canada is currently the largest foreign exporter of oil to the United  
States.

Investment in the oil industry has driven up the value of the Canadian  
dollar, making manufacturing exports less competitive. Regionally,  
this means the west of the country benefits at the expense of the  
rest. And extracting Canadian tar sands oil is at least three times  
worse for the environment than conventional petroleum.

"If you look at the trajectory, it won't be long before Canada is the  
largest per capita producer of greenhouse gases in the industrialised  
world and Harper basically doesn't want to slow that down," Dr. Laxer  
told IPS.

After pulling Canada out of the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas  
emissions last year, the Conservatives unveiled their own  
environmental plan which calls for reductions in carbon intensity --  
the ratio of GDP to carbon emissions produced -- rather than total  
emissions.

On Sep. 11, halfway through the first week of campaigning, four former  
prime ministers, including two Conservatives, and 70 other Canadian  
business and academic leaders, signed a document titled "Time To Get  
Serious on Climate Change," stating that "Avoiding the worst risks [of  
global warming] requires reducing emissions more than half, perhaps  
more than 80 percent, by the year 2050."

Without referring to Stephen Harper by name, former Conservative prime  
minister and report signatory Joe Clark expressed concern at a "lack  
of decisive action by Ottawa on climate change."

While most of the campaign has been standard rhetoric and political  
posturing, the first week has seen some surprises. The Green party  
will be included in televised leaders' debates for the first time  
ever, and Prime Minister Harper promised to pull Canadian troops out  
of Afghanistan by 2011.

(END/2008)