[R-G] [BillTottenWeblog] Russia and Georgia: All About Oil

[Bill Totten]

by Michael Klare

Foreign Policy In Focus (August 13 2008)


In commenting on the war in the Caucasus, most American analysts have
tended to see it as a throwback to the past: as a continuation of a
centuries-old blood feud between Russians and Georgians, or, at best, as
part of the unfinished business of the Cold War. Many have spoken of
Russia's desire to erase the national "humiliation" it experienced with
the collapse of the Soviet Union sixteen years ago, or to restore its
historic "sphere of influence" over the lands to its South. But the
conflict is more about the future than the past. It stems from an
intense geopolitical contest over the flow of Caspian Sea energy to
markets in the West.

This struggle commenced during the Clinton administration when the
former Soviet republics of the Caspian Sea basin became independent and
began seeking Western customers for their oil and natural gas resources.
Western oil companies eagerly sought production deals with the
governments of the new republics, but faced a critical obstacle in
exporting the resulting output. Because the Caspian itself is
landlocked, any energy exiting the region has to travel by pipeline -
and, at that time, Russia controlled all of the available pipeline
capacity. To avoid exclusive reliance on Russian conduits, President
Clinton sponsored the construction of an alternative pipeline from Baku
in Azerbaijan to Tbilisi in Georgia and then onward to Ceyhan on
Turkey's Mediterranean coast - the BTC pipeline, as it is known today.

The BTC pipeline, which began operation in 2006, passes some of the most
unsettled areas of the world, including Chechnya and Georgia's two
breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. With this in mind,
the Clinton and Bush administrations provided Georgia with hundreds of
millions of dollars in military aid, making it the leading recipient of
US arms and equipment in the former Soviet space. President Bush has
also lobbied US allies in Europe to "fast track" Georgia's application
for membership in NATO.

All of this, needless to say, was viewed in Moscow with immense
resentment. Not only was the United States helping to create a new
security risk on its southern borders, but, more importantly, was
frustrating its drive to secure control over the transportation of
Caspian energy to Europe. Ever since Vladimir Putin assumed the
presidency in 2000, Moscow has sought to use its pivotal role in the
supply of oil and natural gas to Western Europe and the former Soviet
republics as a source both of financial wealth and political advantage.
It mainly relies on Russia's own energy resources for this purpose, but
also seeks to dominate the delivery of oil and gas from the Caspian
states to the West.

To further its goals in the Caspian, Putin and his protégé Dmitry
Medvedev - until recently the chairman of Gazprom, the Russian state gas
monopoly - have enticed (or browbeaten) the leaders of Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan into building new gas pipelines through
Russia to Europe. The Europeans, fearful of becoming ever more dependent
on Russian-supplied energy, seek to build alternative conduits across
the Caspian Sea and along the route of the BTC pipeline in Azerbaijan
and Georgia, bypassing Russia altogether.

It is against this backdrop that the fighting in Georgia and South
Ossetia has been taking place. The Georgians may only be interested in
regaining control over an area they consider part of their national
territory. But the Russians are sending a message to the rest of the
world that they intend to keep their hands on the Caspian Sea energy
spigot, come what may. This doesn't necessarily mean occupying Georgia
outright, but they will certainly retain their strategic positions in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia - for all practical purposes, daggers aimed
at the BTC jugular. So even if a cease-fire is put into effect, the
struggle over energy resources - sometimes hidden and stealthy,
sometimes open and violent - will continue long into the future.

_____

Michael T Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at
Hampshire College, the author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The
New Geopolitics of Energy (Metropolitan Books, 2008), and a columnist
for Foreign Policy In Focus (www.fpif.org). Klare's previous book, Blood
and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on
Imported Petroleum has been made into a documentary movie - to order and
view a trailer, visit www.bloodandoilmovie.com

Published by Foreign Policy In Focus (FPIF), a project of the Institute
for Policy Studies (IPS, online at www.ips-dc.org). Copyright (c) 2008,
Institute for Policy Studies.

Recommended citation: Michael Klare, "Russia and Georgia: All About
Oil", (Washington, DC: Foreign Policy In Focus, August 13 2008).

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5462


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