[R-G] Conservatives Win Minority Govt Amid Larger Battle

[Anthony Fenton]

CANADA:  Conservatives Win Minority Govt Amid Larger Battle
Analysis by Chris Arsenault
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=44271

VANCOUVER, Oct 15 (IPS) - While Prime Minister Stephen Harper's  
Conservatives will continue ruling Canada as a minority government,  
they are several steps closer to a coveted parliamentary majority  
after Tuesday's general election.

The Conservatives increased their parliamentary seat count by 16 to  
143. The opposition Liberals led by Stéphane Dion lost 17 seats to  
finish with 76. Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party (NDP) won 37  
seats, an increase of 7. The Bloc Quebecois, which only runs  
candidates in Quebec, won 50 seats up from 44 in the last election.

Despite optimistic polling numbers and inclusion in the televised  
leaders' debate, the Green Party did not win any seats in Canada's  
first past the post voting system.

The Conservatives won about 37 percent of the popular vote, up one  
percentage point from the 2006 election. The Liberals' popular vote  
dropped to 27 percent, one of the lowest levels in the party's history.

The one area where the Conservatives lost ground was Quebec, where  
their cuts to funding for artists and promises of mandatory sentences  
for offenders as young as 14 alienated voters.

"Without the Bloc Québécois, Stephen Harper would be forming a  
majority government," said Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, who supports  
the idea of Quebec province separating from Canada. The Bloc won two- 
thirds of Quebec's ridings, even though most Quebeckers are opposed to  
separation from Canada.

Prior to Tuesday's election, some observers were discussing the  
possibility of a coalition government between the three opposition  
parties, who share some key policy goals.

"The NDP, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals (in their leftist  
Dionista variant, at least) are all pro-Kyoto [Protocol], down-the- 
line socially liberal, anti-American, weak on crime, culturally  
nationalistic, and fiscally redistributionist," opined Jonathan Kay in  
a post-election blog entry for the conservative National Post.

"Scary stuff," wrote Kay. "And here's the scariest part: About two- 
thirds of Canadians voted for this vision on Tuesday."

Because of Canada's election laws, a coalition government of the three  
allegedly leftist parties seems unlikely and thus the views of the  
majority of Canadians won't be realised.

Fundamentally, Canada's 40th Parliament will look very similar to the  
one which preceded it. "What a waste of money, a 300-million-dollar  
election which told us what we already knew," one voter in northern  
British Columbia told the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation as  
election results came in. Prior to the election, most polls had  
forecast another minority government.

In calling the election just three years into a four-year term, Harper  
violated his promise to institute fixed election dates so politicians  
couldn't call voters to the polls whenever it seemed to their partisan  
advantage.

The question then, according to some voters, is why did Prime Minister  
Harper dissolve Parliament and call an election? The answer may lie at  
Harper's alma mater, the University of Calgary.

Tom Flanagan, one of Harper's closest advisors and a political science  
professor from the far right "Calgary school" at the university,  
outlined the Conservatives' long-term strategy during a series of pre- 
election interviews.

"Strategically, this is sort of a prolonged war of attrition," Dr.  
Flanagan told CTV news when the election was called on Sep. 7. "You  
can fight a war with some objective less than total victory," he said,  
predicting that poor outcomes for the Liberals would lead the party to  
dump Stéphane Dion as its leader.

Dion will likely be turfed by the Liberal party executive in the  
coming weeks and months.

High-profile Liberals and potential party leaders including former  
Ontario Premier Bob Rae and former Harvard professor and Iraq war  
supporter Michael Ignatieff have yet to pay off their debts from the  
last Liberal leadership race.

Another race for the Liberal leadership would invariably leave the  
party in a weaker financial position while creating rifts within party  
ranks. During the most recent campaign, the Conservatives  
significantly outspent their opponents, buying prime television air  
time. More debt for Liberals could make the party even weaker in  
future elections.

In the wake of Tuesday's results, everything seems to be going  
according to Dr. Flanagan's pre-election plan.

The Conservative minority, strengthened by Tuesday's election, coupled  
with Stéphane Dion's lacklusture performance will "throw the Liberals  
into turmoil and give Harper... a virtually free hand in Parliament  
for quite a while and really handicap his main opponent," according to  
Flanagan.

There is nothing unique or troubling about conservative intellectuals  
providing guidance to political parties. However, Dr. Flanagan, a  
purported admirer of the neo-conservative philosopher Leo Strauss, has  
raised the ire of other academics and native groups.

In his book "First Nations? Second Thoughts" Flanagan writes that,  
"the European colonisation of North America was inevitable, and, if we  
accept the philosophical analysis of John Locke and Emer de Vattel,  
justifiable."

"The reality is that if Flanagan was making these kinds of statements  
about any other group in Canada -- Jewish, Italians, French -- he  
would not be given a senior role in a major national party and would  
more likely be exiled into the political wilderness," wrote Chief Phil  
Fontaine from the Assembly of First Nations.

Besides a series of interviews at the beginning of the campaign  
outlining the Conservatives' long-term strategies, Flanagan stayed  
quiet for most of the election. Instead of his hard-line rhetoric, the  
Conservatives opted for television ads focusing on Prime Minister  
Harper talking gently in a simple down home blue-collared sweater.

But, with the Harper Conservatives in a stronger position than ever  
before and the Liberals severely weakened, it seems like everything is  
going according to plan for Dr. Tom Flanagan and his colleagues at the  
neo-conservative Calgary school.

(END/2008)