[R-G] Military sees Obama as key to victory in Afghanistan

[Anthony Fenton]

Military sees Obama as key to victory in Afghanistan
Democrat's popularity abroad will make European nations less reluctant  
to contribute more troops, generals believe

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081104.wcampafghan04/BNStory/Afghanistan/home

DOUG SAUNDERS

 From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

November 4, 2008 at 3:08 AM EST

LONDON — In normally hawkish military and diplomatic circles, it is  
being called an "Obama boost": a widespread belief that the war in  
Afghanistan may be winnable only if Barack Obama is elected president  
tonight.

To a surprising degree, military and government officials in the  
United States and Europe have pegged their hopes for victory in  
Afghanistan or a reduction in violence to Mr. Obama's ability to win  
over skeptical European audiences and persuade them to contribute  
large numbers of troops to a war that is widely seen to be in serious  
trouble.

Amid fast-increasing violence and declining public support in  
Afghanistan, many top U.S., British and Canadian military commanders  
and government officials involved with the war say in private  
discussions that they believe the Afghan war will be lost unless a  
large number of additional soldiers and civil workers - a number that  
ranges from 60,000 to more than 100,000 - is sent to Afghanistan by  
the end of next year.

There are currently about 64,000 troops in Afghanistan, including  
2,500 Canadian soldiers. To bring about this effective doubling in  
troops at a time when NATO has had difficulty getting its member  
countries to contribute even 2,000 additional soldiers, officials are  
counting on an Obama victory.

"The Europeans are likely to be more accommodating of the next  
administration to increase their own troop presence," said James  
Dobbins, who was President George W. Bush's envoy to Afghanistan. "And  
I think Obama, if he becomes the next president, is greatly more  
popular in Europe. So I think there's a honeymoon, and he'll have more  
leverage to increase troops ... the effect is there, and it's not  
negligible."

Mr. Obama, whose campaign has focused on the war in Afghanistan far  
more than that of his Republican opponent, John McCain, has pledged to  
remove all U.S. soldiers from Iraq within 16 months and shift the  
military focus to Afghanistan.

This would contribute as many as 40,000 soldiers to the Afghan war,  
though some analysts say that in practice the contingent would be more  
in the range of 25,000 to 30,000, or about half the required number.

The other half would have to come from North Atlantic Treaty  
Organization countries, including Canada and most European countries,  
which have been reluctant to contribute more troops.

This is where the military is putting its hopes on Mr. Obama.

A British general said in an off-the-record briefing last month that  
he believes "a five-figure number" of soldiers can be made available  
by Western European countries including Britain, but are being held  
back because of a desire to avoid seeming to support the Bush  
administration.

An Obama victory, he said, would provide an even greater number of  
troops.

"I would say that there is a reasonable prospect of Obama getting the  
Europeans to do more," said Charles Kupchan, a former U.S. National  
Security Council director who is now a member of the Council on  
Foreign Relations.

"One reason has to do with discomfort with President Bush, the war in  
Iraq, and U.S. foreign policy during the past eight years. And the  
discomfort with U.S. policy creates a domestic environment across  
Europe which makes it harder for European governments to step up to  
the plate in Afghanistan. Having Obama in the White House will  
engender goodwill, which will buy European governments more room for  
manoeuvre, more latitude to act."

Also, European and Canadian voters, and to some extent governments,  
are seen to have lost any sense of purpose in the Afghanistan war, and  
to have developed a skepticism toward U.S. motives in the war. Because  
Mr. Bush has done so little to sell the war, there is a widespread  
sense that countries are seeking excuses to withdraw from the conflict.

"That's an area, I think, where Obama will be able to work with his  
European allies to do a better job of selling the war to skeptical  
publics," Mr. Kupchan said.