[R-G] US division doesn't add up

Mon Nov 3 17:01:48 MST 2008

  Nov 4, 2008
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JK04Df01.html
US division doesn't add up
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - General David Petraeus, who took over last Friday as the new  
head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM) with overall  
responsibility for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has arrived in  
Pakistan with Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian  
Affairs Richard Boucher to push his plans in the South Asian theater  
of the "war on terror".

This involves the dual task of government-led reconciliation with  
Taliban insurgents in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the leveraging of  
diplomatic and economic initiatives with the countries influential in  
the war.

Petraeus' arrival on Sunday coincided with two events. One was a US  
Predator drone strike which killed 25 people, including

possibly an Arab commander, Abu Akash, in the North Waziristan tribal  
area in Pakistan. At the same time, militants and Pakistan, on  
Islamabad's initiative, agreed on a peace formula under which Pakistan  
has stopped military operations in the tribal areas and the militants  
have assured they will not unleash a "winter offensive" in Pakistan.  
(See A long, hot winter for Pakistan Asia Times Online, October 11,  
2008.)

Pakistan has already slowed operations in Bajaur Agency and shelved  
plans for operations in North Waziristan. All the same, the militants  
welcomed the month of November with unprecedented attacks, which,  
according to the militants, are a part of a carrot-and-stick game.

On Friday, a suicide attack on a police office in Mardan, North-West  
Frontier Province (NWFP), killed four policemen. These were followed  
by three more suicide attacks at different locations and a rocket  
attack at Peshawar airport in NWFP that killed several security  
personnel.

Tackling al-Qaeda
Petraeus is credited with saving the United States from defeat in Iraq  
through his initiative to engage the indigenous tribal resistance  
especially the Sunnis, and getting them to turn against foreigners,  
that is al-Qaeda.

If the same is planned for South Asia, it is sure to fail as al- 
Qaeda's traditions in the region are different from those in Iraq: al- 
Qaeda was a new phenomenon in Iraq, while it has been in South Asia  
for several decades.

After September 11, 2001, and the invasion of Afghanistan that year,  
al-Qaeda became even closer to the local tribes who became a part of  
the Afghan resistance.

After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, a large number of al-Qaeda and  
Arab groups (not all Arab groups were al-Qaeda) based in Afghanistan  
went to Iraq, leaving behind a small group of Arabs.

Most of them were trainers, like Iraqi Abu Akash, or ideologues like  
Abu Waleed Ansari, a Jordanian-Palestinian. Neither Ansari nor Abu  
Akash was directly linked with the hardcore of al-Qaeda. Ansari was  
more of cleric than a commander and he gave sermons to youths in North  
Waziristan to fight against foreign forces in Afghanistan. On the  
other hand, Abu Akash established a maaskar (training center) in North  
Waziristan at which he prepared youths for guerrilla battle.

Through this process, a new Arabic-speaking tribal Pashtun generation  
was raised. Now, at a time when numerically al-Qaeda and Arab warriors  
in South Asia are insignificant, this breed of tribal Pashtuns has  
become the vanguard of al-Qaeda's cause.

One could call them the neo-Taliban, and in most instances they have  
taken over the leadership of the Taliban. Veteran mujahideen leader  
Jalaluddin Haqqani was once close to the Pakistani establishment and  
he had a pure tribal mindset. But his sons Sirajuddin and Nasiruddin,  
who speak Arabic, lean towards Arabs and their cause.

Qari Ziaur Rahman is another case in point in eastern Afghanistan and  
Pakistan. The Arabic-speaking commander of Pashtun ethnicity is closer  
to Arabs and there is no chance of him siding with the establishment  
in either country.

There is no official word on whether Abu Akash has been killed, but  
even if he is dead he will have left a strong legacy.

Abu Akash (or Abu Akasha as his comrades call him) is not a veteran of  
the Afghan jihad against the Soviets in the 1980s as he is in his  
mid-30s. He is an expert in explosives and guns and after arriving in  
North Waziristan he tapped Uzbeks and Tajiks of Central Asian origin  
to act as trainers.

He also used his young trainees to control traffic in North  
Waziristan. This was a simple drill but some local tribes did not like  
it and in 2007 he was expelled to the Shawal region that spans the  
Pakistan-Afghanistan border. But he returned within a few months and  
blended even further into tribal society, so much so that he could  
speak the local dialects of Urdu and Pashtun and at one point  
Pakistani intelligence reported that they suspected Abu Akash was  
Punjabi, not Arab.

Abu Akash and his likes will make it very difficult for Petraeus to  
divide and defeat the resistance, as in Iraq.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He  
can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002 at yahoo.com