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Fri May 30 04:35:31 MDT 2008

in gold. Kazakhstan is the richest energy producer in Central Asia and
is a regional heavyweight. It borders China. The entire US regional
strategy in Central Asia ultimately aims at replacing Russia and China
as Kazakhstan's number one partner. American oil majors began making a
beeline to Kazakhstan immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991 - including Chevron, with which US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice was associated.

Unsurprisingly, Kazakhstan figured as a favorite destination for US Vice
President Dick Cheney and President George W Bush has lavishly hosted
Nazarbayev in the White House.

The US had gone the extra league in cultivating Nazarbayev, with the
fervent hope that somehow Kazakhstan could be persuaded to commit its
oil to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, whose viability is otherwise in
doubt. The pipeline is a crucial component of the US's Caspian great game.

The US had gone to great lengths to realize the pipeline project against
seemingly hopeless odds. In fact, Washington stage-managed the "color"
revolution in Georgia in November 2003 (which catapulted Mikheil
Saakashvili to power in Tbilisi) on the eve of the commissioning of the
pipeline. The general idea behind the commotion in the South Caucasus
was that the US should take control of Georgia through which the
pipeline passes.

Besides, Kazakhstan shares a 7,500 kilometer border with Russia, which
is the longest land border between any two countries in the world. It
would be a nightmare for Russian security if NATO were to gain a
foothold in Kazakhstan. Again, the US strategy had targeted Kazakhstan
as the prize catch for NATO in Central Asia. The US aimed to make a
pitch for Kazakhstan after getting Georgia inducted into NATO.

These American dreams have suffered a setback with the Kazakh leadership
now closing ranks with Moscow. It seems Moscow outwitted Washington.

Belarus voices support

The other neighboring country sharing a common border with Russia,
Belarus, has also expressed support for Moscow. Belarus President
Alexander Lukashenko visited Medvedev in Sochi on August 19 to express
his solidarity.

"Russia acted calmly, wisely and beautifully. This was a calm response.
Peace has been established in the region - and it will last", he commented.

What is even more potent is that Russia and Belarus have decided to sign
an agreement this autumn on creating a unified air defense system. This
is hugely advantageous for Russia in the context of the recent US
attempts to deploy missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech
Republic.

According to Russian media reports, Belarus has several S-300 air
defense batteries - Russia's advanced system - on combat duty and is
currently negotiating the latest S-400 systems from Russia, which will
be made available by 2010.

Attention now shifts to the meeting of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO), which is scheduled to take place in Moscow on
September 5. The CSTO's stance on the crisis in the Caucasus will be
closely watched.

It appears that Moscow and Kazakhstan are closely cooperating in setting
the agenda of CSTO, whose members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The big question is how
the CSTO gears up to meet NATO's expansion plans. The emergent
geopolitical reality is that with Russia's recognition of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia, Moscow has virtually checkmated the US strategy in the
Black Sea region, defeating its plan to make the Black Sea an exclusive
"NATO lake". In turn, NATO's expansion plans in the Caucasus have
suffered a setback.

Not many analysts have understood the full military import of the
Russian moves in recognizing the breakaway Georgian republics.

Russia has now gained de facto control over two major Black Sea ports -
Sukhumi and Poti. Even if the US-supported regime of Viktor Yushchenko
in Ukraine creates obstacles for the Russian fleet based in the Crimean
port of Sevastopol - in all probability, Moscow will shrug off any
Ukrainian pressure tactic - the fleet now has access to alternative
ports on the Black Sea. Poti, in particular, has excellent facilities
dating to the Soviet era.

The swiftness with which Russia took control of Poti must have made the
US livid with anger. Washington's fury stems from the realization that
its game plan to eventually eliminate Russia's historical role as a
"Black Sea power" has been rendered a pipe dream. Of course, without a
Black Sea fleet, Russia would have ceased to be a naval power in the
Mediterranean. In turn, Russia's profile in the Middle East would have
suffered. The Americans indeed had an ambitious game plan towards Russia.

There is every indication that Moscow intends to assert the strategic
presence of its Black Sea Fleet. Talks have begun with Syria for the
expansion of a Russian naval maintenance base at the Syrian port of
Tartus. The Middle East media recently suggested in the context of
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow that Russia might contemplate
shifting its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Syria. But this is an
incorrect reading insofar as all that Russia needs is a supply and
maintenance center for its warships, which operate missions in the
Mediterranean. In fact, the Soviet navy's 5th Mediterranean Squadron had
made use of Tartus port for such purpose.

China shows understanding

Moscow will approach the CSTO summit pleased with the SCO's backing,
even it it was not without reservations. Medvedev said of the SCO meeting,

"Of course, I had to tell our partners what had actually happened, since
the picture painted by some of the Western media unfortunately differed
from real facts as to who was the aggressor, who started all this, and
who should bear the political, moral and ultimately the legal
responsibility for what happened ...

"Our colleagues gratefully received this information and during a series
of conversations we concluded that such events certainly do not
strengthen the world order, and that the party that unleashed the
aggression should be responsible for its consequences ... I am very
pleased to have been able to discuss this with our colleagues and to
have received from them this kind of support for our efforts. We are
confident that the position of the SCO member states will produce an
appropriate resonance through the international security, and I hope
this will give a serious signal to those who are trying to justify the
aggression that was committed."

It must have come as a relief to Moscow that China agreed to line up
behind such a positive formulation. On Thursday, the Russian Foreign
Ministry in Moscow also seems to have had its first contact with the
Chinese Embassy regarding the issue. Significantly, the Foreign Ministry
statement said the meeting between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
Alexei Borodavkin and Chinese ambassador Liu Guchang took place at the
Chinese initiative.

The statement claimed, "The Chinese side was informed of the political
and legal motives behind Russia's decision and expressed an
understanding of them". (Emphasis added.) It is highly unlikely that on
such a sensitive issue, Moscow would have unilaterally staked a tall
claim without some degree of prior tacit consent from the Chinese side,
which is a usual diplomatic practice.

The official Russian news agency report went a step further and
highlighted that "China had expressed its understanding of Russia's
decision to recognize Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia".

The favorable stance by Belarus, Kazakhstan and China significantly
boosts Moscow's position. In real terms, the assurance that the three
big countries that surround Russia will remain on friendly terms no
matter the West's threat to unleash a new cold war, makes a huge
difference to Moscow's capacity to maneuver. Any time now - possibly
this weekend - we may expect Belarus to announce its recognition of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Clearly, Moscow is disinterested to mount any diplomatic campaign to
rally support from the world community for the sovereignty and
independence of the two breakaway provinces. As a Moscow commentator put
it, "Unlike in comrade Leonid Brezhnev's time, Moscow is not trying to
press any countries into supporting it on this issue. If it did, it
could find quite a few sympathizers, but who cares?"

It serves Moscow's purpose as long as the world community draws an
analogy between Kosovo and the two breakaway provinces. In any case, the
two provinces have been totally dependent on Russia for economic sustenance.

With the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, what matters
critically for Moscow is that if the West now intends to erect any new
Berlin Wall, such a wall will have to run zig-zag along the western
coast of the Black Sea, while the Russian naval fleet will always stay
put on the east coast and forever sail in and out of the Black Sea.

The Montreal Convention assures the free passage of Russian warships
through the Straits of Bosphorous. Under the circumstances, NATO's
grandiose schemes to occupy the Black Sea as its private lake seem
outlandish now. There must be a lot of egg on the faces of the NATO
brains in Brussels and their patrons in Washington and London.

_____

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri
Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag02.html

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