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territories is the proper antidote to NATO's planned expansion, to
offset the US's growing encroachment, and a clear warning to
neighboring states, such as Azerbaijan and Ukraine, to refrain from
cozying up to US or NATO.

Russia is now devoting more energy to building up both the CIS network
and the implementation of its collective security principle, and
equally important, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which
had a summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, this week (attended by Iran's
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad as an observer).

Should the SCO, which comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, consent to Iran's quest for full
membership, then Russia may reciprocate the US's unwanted encroachment
into its backyard by gaining a foothold in the US's traditional turf,
the oil-prized Persian Gulf, via Iran.

With the Russians building a power plant in Bushehr in Iran and
Russian oil and gas companies energetically involved in Iran's energy
sector, the door has already been opened for a future security
dimension to such a Russian presence in the Persian Gulf.

In a worst-case scenario, should the US pile up the pressure on Moscow
in the Caucasus (Ukraine has already expressed an interest in a
US-installed anti-missile system), Moscow may resort to backing
anti-NATO forces in the region, including the Taliban in Afghanistan.

As Cheney heads to Georgia to pledge firm American support for the
combative Tbilisi government, he and other White House officials may
want to think twice before taking steps that could have such dire
consequences. These include Moscow possibly substantially increasing
its naval presence in the Baltic Sea.

This fissure between Russia and the US throws into turmoil the future
of Russia's cooperation with the West on such international issues as
the nuclear program's of Iran and North Korea, as well as the future
of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty agreement that expires in
December 2009.

The US's triumphalism prevents Washington policy-makers from properly
gauging the numerous instances in which Russia could counteract the
US's encroachment by taking advantage of US vulnerabilities, such as
military overstretch and multiple and diversified foes.

Cheney would also want to beware of not making over-commitments to
Georgia that would tie the hands of next administration in the White
House.

Note
1. Medvedev told the SCO summit, "I told them about the real events
[in South Ossetia] not the ones told by the Western media, which
indicated a different culprit for the fierce battle." He also
mentioned that "SCO has broadened the possibilities of observer states
[such as Iran]. From now on, they can take part in the organization's
activities and we may invite certain countries to the solution of
certain important problems." Russia's envoy to SCO, Vitaly Vorobyov,
has expressed a great deal of optimism about SCO's potential.

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New
Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) and co-author of
"Negotiating Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World Affairs,
Volume XII, Issue 2, Summer 2005, with Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also
wrote "Keeping Iran's nuclear potential latent", Harvard International
Review, and is author of Iran's Nuclear Program: Debating Facts Versus
Fiction. For his Wikipedia entry, click here.

<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag02.html>
<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag03.html>
Russia remains a Black Sea power
By M K Bhadrakumar

If the struggle in the Caucasus was ever over oil and the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) agenda towards Central Asia,
the United States suffered a colossal setback this week. Kazakhstan,
the Caspian energy powerhouse and a key Central Asian player, has
decided to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia over the conflict
with Georgia, and Russia's de facto control over two major Black Sea
ports has been consolidated.

At a meeting in the Tajik capital Dushanbe on Thursday on the
sidelines of the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazarbayev told
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that Moscow could count on Astana's
support in the present crisis.

In his press conference in Dushanbe, Medvedev underlined that his SCO
counterparts, including China, showed understanding of the Russian
position. Moscow appears satisfied that the SCO summit also issued a
statement on the Caucasus developments, which, inter alia, said, "The
leaders of the SCO member states welcome the signing in Moscow of the
six principles for regulating the South Ossetia conflict, and support
Russia's active role in assisting peace and cooperation in the
region." The SCO comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

There were tell-tale signs that something was afoot when the Kazakh
Foreign Ministry issued a statement on August 19 hinting at broad
understanding for the Russian position. The statement called for an
"unbiased and balanced assessment" of events and pointed out that an
"attempt [was made] to resolve a complicated ethno-territorial issue
by the use of force", which led to "grave consequences". The statement
said Astana supported the "way the Russian leadership proposed to
resolve the issue" within the framework of the United Nations charter,
the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and international law.

The lengthy statement leaned toward the Russian position but offered a
labored explanation for doing so.

Kazakhstan has since stepped out into the thick of the diplomatic
sweepstakes and whole-heartedly endorsed the Russian position.
This has become a turning point for Russian diplomacy in the
post-Soviet space. Nazarbayev said:

    I am amazed that the West simply ignored the fact that Georgian
armed forces attacked the peaceful city of Tskhinvali [in South
Ossetia]. Therefore, my assessment is as follows: I think that it
originally started with this. And Russia's response could either have
been to keep silent or to protect their people and so on. I believe
that all subsequent steps taken by Russia have been designed to stop
bloodshed of ordinary residents of this long-suffering city. Of
course, there are many refugees, many homeless.

    Guided by out bilateral agreement on friendship and cooperation
between Kazakhstan and Russia, we have provided humanitarian aid: 100
tons have already been sent. We will continue to provide assistance
together with you.

    Of course, there was loss of life on the Georgian side - war is
war. The resolution of the conflict with Georgia has now been shifted
to some indeterminate time in the future. We have always had good
relations with Georgia. Kazakhstan's companies have made substantial
investments there. Of course, those that have done this want stability
there. The conditions of the plan that you and [President of France
Nicolas] Sarkozy drew up must be implemented, but some have begun to
disavow certain points in the plan.

    However, I think that negotiations will continue and that there
will be peace - there is no other alternative. Therefore, Kazakhstan
understands all the measures that have been taken, and Kazakhstan
supports them. For our part, we will be ready to do everything to
ensure that everyone returns to the negotiating table.