[R-G] [BillTottenWeblog] The Peak Oil Crisis: Transiting to Transit

[Bill Totten]

by Tom Whipple

Falls Church News-Press (May 08 2008)


With crude oil now above $120 a barrel and threatening to go higher, it
is clear that our preferred and convenient means of going places, our
car, the airplane and the rental car soon are going to be parked because
they will be too expensive to operate.

Like it or not, most of us are going to be riding some form of mass
transit or multiple passenger vehicle - trains, buses, trolleys, car
pools, van pools, et cetera - while waiting for our cars to be replaced
with electric or higher mileage vehicles. As there are currently about
220 million cars and light trucks registered in the US and 700 million
or so elsewhere, the replacement process is going to be lengthy one.

In America, our accustomed daily transportation needs are so diverse
that it is difficult to foresee how new transportation methods and
patterns will come about. For some simply accepting the inconvenience of
taking public transit to work or joining a car pool will save enough
gasoline each week that much higher prices, shortages and ultimately
rationing can be accommodated without undue hardship.

For others whose livelihood depends on a large vehicle that moves
frequently throughout the work day there is more of a problem for mass
transit as currently configured is unlikely to be of much use. At some
point driving around at ten miles per gallon to mow lawns will no longer
be economically viable for customers will no longer be willing to pay
the fuel surcharges. Someday there probably will be satisfactory
electric or ultra high mileage vehicles, but it is likely to be a while
before they filter down from better off organizations such UPS, FedEx
and the grocery stores to local maintenance contractors.

One day soon, it will simply be too expensive for electricians, plumbers
and a myriad of other household service providers to drive fifty or
sixty miles in large, inefficient vehicles to perform some relatively
minor maintenance task. The very nature of such services will have to
change, be localized, and planned so that travel is minimized. Someday,
your electrician may arrive on a city bus pulling his tools and parts
behind.

The speed with which we have to transition from unlimited, cheap,
personal travel to some form of public or at least multiple passenger
transport will determine how transit works in the coming decades. If
people are priced out of their cars relatively slowly over a period of
many years then the transit industry and private entrepreneurs will have
time to react. Bus schedules can be stepped up. More vehicles can be
added to transit fleets and new routes can be added. Local governments
might start or charter small local transit services that can move people
and goods to and from their homes to longer-haul transit services.

There may be efficiencies in combining people transport and package
delivery on the same vehicle. An empty bus winding around a subdivision
all day long might be unaffordable, but if that vehicle were delivering
the groceries as well as providing the last leg of package deliveries,
the economics even with very high gasoline prices might make sense. The
internet and cell phone are likely to be of great value in coordinating
efficient use of local transport.

Five dollar gasoline may be enough to force some people to give up
steady use of their personal cars and seek other solutions. For others,
the quitting price may be ten or twenty dollars per gallon and for the
very wealthy even $100 a gallon gasoline ($80 or $100 thousand a year)
would be an acceptable price to pay for the convenience of the private car.

In the case of slowly increasing gasoline prices the problem is one of
forming a critical mass that will make economic sense for greatly
expanded mass transit. Such a critical mass is likely to come for long
distance travel first, for as soon as discretionary air travel becomes
unaffordable, the demand for better train and bus service will increase
rapidly. Long distance automobile travel may fill some of this gap
especially for moving multiple passengers or if cars become
significantly more efficient, but for the lone traveler, a long distance
car trip could become very expensive.

A totally different situation will exist if gasoline prices increase
rapidly and permanent shortages develop leading to the imposition of
rationing. Such an increase looks likely at the minute, demand simply
getting so far ahead of the supply that the US is no longer able to
import its accustomed twelve million barrels per day. It would only take
a five percent shortfall in supply to cause turmoil.

Large organizations should have the resources to look after their
employees in a transportation emergency - be it assistance in forming
carpools, company supplied vans, flexible hours, telecommuting or
whatever works. It is the self-employed or employees of small firms that
currently are dependent on motor vehicles for their living that will be
in deep trouble almost immediately. Independent truckers are already
complaining mightily about diesel prices and many have been forced out
of business. Their used trucks, by the way, are being sold to the
Russians in increasing numbers. The Russians will still have cheap
diesel for a while and they love the reliability and comfort of big
American eighteen wheelers that are being sold off at bargain prices.

Local governments are going to have to deal with the transportation
problem or be faced with massive social issues as people become isolated
from places of employment. A large decline in personal mobility is
likely to result in considerable economic hardship and job losses as
much discretionary travel will simply stop due to excessive costs or the
inconvenience of other arrangements.

http://www.fcnp.com/national_commentary/the_peak_oil_crisis_transiting_to_transit_20080508.html


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