[R-G] [BillTottenWeblog] MIT Engineer Asks: Are You Ready for the Future?

[Bill Totten]

by Matthew Stein

http://www.whentechnologyfails.com


Is it not already too late if one waits until one is thirsty to begin
digging a well?
-Chinese Proverb


The devastation of New Orleans, combined with the current rash of wild
fires in the West and severe weather in the East, brings home the fact
that climate change and ecological collapse are bad for business (and
people's lives). Ready or not, life as we know it is going to change
radically over the next decade. I doubt that we will see technology fail
completely, but I am certain that we will see increasing environmental
and political instabilities that will create disruptions in the flow of
electricity, goods, and central services to huge numbers of people, and
that America will not be spared from societal disruptions on a global scale.

When Technology Fails, a book by Matthew Stein, provides something for
everyone, from folks who just want to help their families when disaster
strikes, to the go-it-alone survivalist, to the eco-minded person who
wishes to tread more lightly on the earth, whatever the future may hold.
Hurricane Katrina, the Tsunami in Asia, and 9/11 really bring it home.
How many of us are prepared for disruptions of this magnitude? How will
you cope if the water stops flowing out of your tap, or if gasoline and
electricity are unavailable? If the doctors and hospitals are
overloaded, can you deal with common medical emergencies? How can we do
our part to minimize our impact on this planet, and to live more
sustainably?


What is this book about?

Information / Preparedness / Networking:

*  Climate Change / Hurricanes / Superstorms
*  "Peak Oil" and Gasoline Shortages
*  Sustainable Living / Self-Reliant Communities
*  Disruptions in Supplies and Services
*  Biological Terrorism / Pandemics
*  Skyrocketing Energy Bills
*  Earthquakes / Floods / Wildfires

This web site, and my book When Technology Fails: A Manual for
Self-Reliance and Planetary Survival, are dedicated to helping people
proactively plan for, and deal with, the coming challenges that we will
all face in the first part of this century. Between global warming,
terrorism, Peak Oil, eco-system collapse, and the threat of emerging
viruses and anti-biotic resistant bacteria, there are plenty of reasons
to be concerned about our future. I am not suggesting that we all become
survivalists, but I also don't suggest that you stick your head in the
sand and pretend that these threats will simply disappear.

If we are to avoid global catastrophe, we must accept that we are
occupants of a fragile planetary ecosystem that is showing severe signs
of strain, and that to continue "business as usual", where the bottom
line of profit has supreme precedence over all other considerations, is
a recipe for world wide disaster. It is my desire that the resources in
my book and web site will help people to live more sustainably,
encouraging them to do business in more sustainable ways, and actively
pursue policy changes in local and national government to make a
sustainable future our top priority.
This web site, and my book (When Technology Fails), are dedicated to
helping people to:

1.  Understand the threats to our future.
2.  Help our friends and family to be prepared for disasters and
emergencies.
3.  Seek positive solutions to these current and future threats at
personal, communal, national and global levels.
4.  Promote sustainable business practices from the personal to the
global level, and the establishment of self-reliant sustainable communities.

Personally, I am very excited about the potential for positive
transformation through dealing with the challenges that we will face in
the coming decades. When faced with a potentially fatal disease, such as
cancer, many people initially fall apart but eventually rise to the
occasion, making personal changes and growing in ways that never would
have happened without facing the challenges presented by their
predicament. It is my hope that mankind will collectively rise to this
occasion, working together to create a viable, sustainable future which
respects the spirit of the individual, and the biological systems of the
planet.

We are all in this together! Let us create a future that we can all live
with.


Do The Right Thing!

Most of us just want to "do the right thing" for our selves, friends and
families, but what is this "right thing"?

First, we must educate ourselves (knowledge is power!) about where our
world is headed so we may have a realistic view of the challenges facing
the world in the next few years and the following decades.

Second, we can do our best to be proactively prepared for life on a
changing planet as the business, social and ecological climates of our
world becomes increasingly unstable. The rapidly escalating prices of
gas and oil, which we saw in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, are simply a
preview of future price escalations that will occur once the world's oil
production passes its peak ("Peak Oil") and begins its natural and
inevitable decline. Unless our scientists are able to develop a new
"miracle" as-yet-undiscovered technology to bail us out (as an MIT
engineer, I would not bet on it!), our society will soon grapple with
significant escalations in global climate change combined with an energy
crisis that won't go away.  According to many oil industry experts, this
peak in global oil production will probably occur sometime between now
and 2010. As this occurs, the world's economy will become more volatile
and unstable as the rock upon which it is built (cheap oil to fuel
global industrial expansion and modern methods of food production)
begins to crumble.  

Third, once we have a realistic understanding of where our world is
headed, we stand a chance of pushing our governments to make the
difficult decisions and policy changes that may help us to avoid global
collapse.


A Perspective on Relative Threats

In spite of the very real threat of terrorism, I believe that our
greatest threats are from other sources. To gain some perspective, let's
compare the impact of several major events:

1.  Hurricane Katrina: The official death toll now stands at 1,163 and
the damage higher than $200 billion, topping Hurricane Andrew as the
most expensive natural disaster in US history. Over a million people
were displaced - a humanitarian crisis on a scale unseen in the US since
the Great Depression.

2.  Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918: 675,000 American fatalities and
estimates of 21 to fifty million fatalities worldwide, in a single year.
By comparison, World War One killed nine million men over a four-year
period. Recent analysis of eighty-year-old specimens preserved in wax
indicates that this flu virus originated as a bird virus that mutated
into a swine virus that mutated into a human virus.

3.  Destruction of the World Trade Center (9/11/2001): Estimated
fatalities of 2,936. Insured property damage to the World Trade Center
and the Pentagon is estimated at a combined total of $19 billion dollars.

4.  Indian Ocean Tsunami (12/26/2004, Sumatra-Andaman earthquake): One
of the most deadly natural disasters in modern history, the United
Nations estimated 229,866 dead or missing people.  The earthquake that
caused the tsunami has been estimated at 9.1 to 9.3 on the Richter
scale, making it the fourth largest quake since 1900. Over 1.7 million
people were displaced and property damage has been estimated at rebuild
costs of over $15 billion (relatively low due to damage in mostly third
world locations).

5.  Hurricane Andrew (8/24/1992, Florida): 65 fatalities, 600,000 homes
and businesses destroyed or badly damaged. Property damage estimated at
$26 billion.

6.  Hurricane Mitch (October/ November 1998, Central America): Over
22,000 fatalities, leaving 3,000,000 homeless, Mitch was the fourth most
intense Atlantic hurricane of this century. There is speculation that
global warming contributed to Mitch's severity and unusually long
duration (it stalled over Central America for almost one week). Property
damage was estimated at $8.5 billion (relatively low figure due to third
world location, but higher than the GDP of Honduras and Nicaragua).

7.  Bubonic Plague (China and Europe, sixth, fourteenth, and seventeenth
centuries): An outbreak in China was spread to Italy in 1347. Over the
next five years, it spread throughout Europe, killing about 25 million
people, roughly one third of Europe's population at the time. The cities
became death traps and were deserted until the plague subsided.

8.  Kobe Japan Earthquake (6.9 magnitude, 1/17/1995): 5,470 fatalities,
33,000 injured, 300,000 people left homeless, and an estimated $200
billion in damages (four percent of Japan's GDP). Nearly tied with
Hurricane Katrina as the most costly natural disasters on record.

9.  China's Yangtze River Flood (summer 1998): 3656 fatalities, 33,000
injured, fourteen million people left homeless (an astounding figure!!),
223 million affected, and over $20 billion in damages. Severe
deforestation (85%) of the Yangtze River watershed has been blamed for
significantly contributing to the flood's severity, by reducing the
land's capacity to absorb excessive rainfall.

10.  Bangladesh Cyclone (1991): Killing at least 138,000 people and
leaving as many as ten million homeless, the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone
ranks as one of the deadliest tropical cyclones on record.

11.  Shansi China Earthquake (unknown magnitude, 1/23/1956): Fatalities
estimated at 830,000 people.

Except for possibly biological or nuclear terrorism, from a review the
above statistics one may conclude that natural disasters, such as storms
(growing more severe due to global warming), earthquakes, and plagues,
far out rank terrorism in scope.


The Main Threats to Our Future

As I see it, the four main threats to a stable American and world future
are:

*  Peak Oil: The oil crisis of the 1970s was a result of a five percent
drop in global oil production due to the OPEC oil embargo. We are facing
an imminent, unavoidable drop in global oil production as most of the
world's oil fields are now in decline. Many oil industry experts state
that global oil production has essentially already reached a plateau and
predict that it will start to decline sometime between this year and the
year 2010. This is happening at precisely the same time that the huge
populations of China and India are rapidly expanding their industrial
capacities and their appetite for oil. Read more at
http://whentechfails.com/node/15

*  Eco Threat: Global warming and other climate changes (super storms,
et cetera) coupled with major ecosystem collapse are the basis for the
Eco-Threat. Hurricane Katrina is a powerful example of the effects of
climate change. When you consider that a single degree Fahrenheit of
global warming so far has contributed to the changes in weather that
most of us now acknowledge (re: severity of hurricanes Katrina, Andrew,
Mitch, et cetera), and that a continuation of current consumption
patterns is projected to result in a global warming that is 2.5 to ten
times as great over the next century, it is obvious there are
potentially dire consequences for the stability and quality of human
life on our planet. Read more at http://www.whentechnologyfails.com/node/16

*  Bio Threat: We face a potential for massive plagues due to:
(1) The ability of viruses to mutate into new forms that make the jump
from animal to human species (for example, Bird Flu).
(2) The widespread use of antibiotics in animal feeds makes a perfect
breeding ground for growing bacteria that are resistant to modern
antibiotics.
(3) The potential for terrorists to secretly infect populations with
deadly bacteria or viruses and for them to spread the infection globally
(air travel) before it is detected.
Read more at http://www.whentechnologyfails.com/node/node/19


*  Terror Threat: The threat of terrorism is obvious. What is not quite
as obvious is the connection between our dependence upon foreign oil and
how it funds terrorism while putting our soldiers, engineers and oil
company personnel in harms way, and draws the attacks of fanatical
Muslim minorities in their attempt to drive American influences from the
entire Middle East. Read more at
http://www.whentechnologyfails.com/node/node/20


Preparedness Planning

I suggest that you develop a personal preparedness plan, and have
prepared the following checklist which may be printed from this web
site's "Articles" section:

*  Place 72 hour Grab-And-Run emergency survival kits in your car or home.
*  Determine a local meeting place with a large open area, such as a
park or school, where your household can gather if you are separated and
do not have access to your home during emergencies.
*  Make sure that all capable members of your family know how and where
to shut off the water, gas, and electricity for your home in the event
of an emergency.
*  Stash spare keys to your vehicles somewhere on the vehicle and an
additional supply of keys somewhere outside of your home (securely hidden).
*  Store at least one week's supply of food for your household.
*  Store a combination of water, water treatment chemicals, and
water-purifying filters to provide for your household for at least a
week (see Chapter 5, "Water", for more information on filters and
purification).
*  Keep a survival manual in each car with your 72-hour kit.
*  Get proper first aid and CPR training for all capable members of your
family. See the American Red Cross for first aid training and assistance
with local emergency planning.
*  Arrange for an out-of-state emergency contact to reach for
coordination and communication. After an emergency, it may be easier to
call long distance than locally, or your family may be separated and
need an outside contact to communicate through.
*  Locate your nearest emergency shelter (call your local Red Cross for
this information). Practice the route to the shelter, if it's not
conveniently located.
*  Make sure that you have smoke detectors in your home. Change their
batteries at least once each year.
*  Store your important papers in one easily accessible location,
preferably in a waterproof and flameproof box.
*  Discuss your emergency preparedness plans with all members of your
household. Keep the discussion light and positive.

You may also use my book, When Technology Fails, as a guide for further
preparedness planning:

1.  Prepare a 72-hour emergency survival kit, including a hand crank or
battery-operated radio, first aid kit, clean water and water
purification chemicals or filter, matches, wool blankets, flashlight
with spare batteries, candles, toiletries, multi-tool knife, map,
compass, whistle, sewing kit, towel, cooking utensils and can opener,
tent or plastic sheeting, extra outdoor wear, garbage bags, and rope.
(See pages 31-34).

2.  Stock up on dried and other nonperishable food.  You can store
enough food to feed a family of four for a whole year in a relatively
small space without refrigeration. (See pages 35-40).

3.  Have on hand methods of purifying water. You can boil water to kill
bacteria and viruses. Various types of filters and distillers can be
used to remove other types of contamination, such as chemical poisons
and radiation (see pages 70-89, includes very specific recommendations).

4.  Learn basic first aid and have handy a first aid kit (see pages
33-34 for items to include).  See pages (176-199) for instructions with
clear diagrams illustrating first aid for various types of injuries,
from stabilizing a broken arm to giving CPR.

5.  Learn how to prepare your home to use renewable energy for heat and
power.  There are simple things you can do to be prepared in the case of
a total power failure.  See pages (277-307). For emergencies, you can
use a tent, tipi, or yurt. If you are planning to build a new home,
consider one using alternative energy, such as solar power.  (See pages
137-166)

6.  In case of extreme emergency survival in the wild, know emergency
measures such as how to tell if a wild plant is edible, how to safely
eat things like worms, insects, and grubs, and how to make simple tools
(see pages 46-65).

7.  In the case of long-term disruption, learn how to live off the land
through proper growing, hunting, foraging, and storing, without
electricity or other modern technological advances.  (See pages 97-127).

For several easily printed handy lists and information about
preparedness, check out some of the articles listed on this web site,
such as Preparedness Checklist, First Aid Kit, Grab-And-Run Kit,
Earthquake Precautions, et cetera


Positive Action

Many people ask, "What can I do?" Individually we can educate ourselves
and prepare ourselves to cope with future instabilities in the climate
and the supply of gasoline and central services. Remember, preparedness
is disaster & terrorism insurance.

Katrina gave us a glimpse of what we might expect when society reels
under the load of a huge disaster, or simply degrades due to (in the
words of James Howard Kunstler) the "long slow emergency" of life after
Peak Oil. In these events, there will be safety in numbers, living among
people you can trust, in localized sustainable communities built upon
the principles of Permaculture. While the world is still functioning
reasonably well, is the best time to start developing your skills and
links with other like-minded people. Location will be important if and
when the world situation takes a turn for the worse. You may use this
web site as a good starting point. My goal is to make it a useful tool
for networking, education, and activism.

Reducing consumption, recycling and the use of renewable energy sources
are all positive steps toward reaching a sustainable future.
Individually, none of us will save the world, but collectively we can
decide that we (the people) wish to make a sustainable future the number
one priority of business and government. There is a huge momentum that
tends to keep the world on the same track of "Business as Usual".
Currently, it would be political suicide for an American leader in
today's world to make the difficult decisions to halt our momentum
sliding towards global collapse, but this doesn't mean we can't change
this course. We can change the world, but it takes massive numbers of
people to make changes on the scale of the end of slavery or the
institution of women's rights. Hitler could never have been stopped if
it was number ten on the priority list. Stopping Hitler was a matter of
survival. Changing the way we do business in our world is also a matter
of survival.

http://www.whentechnologyfails.com/


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