[R-G] US runs out of patience with Pakistan

Mon Jun 16 22:46:20 MDT 2008

South Asia
Jun 17, 2008
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JF17Df02.html

US runs out of patience with Pakistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The words came from Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the  
weekend, threatening to send troops into Pakistani territory in hot  
pursuit of the Taliban, but Islamabad has no doubts Karzai was reading  
from a script prepared by the United States.

The message is crystal clear: Pakistan's failure to cooperate at the  
sub-strategic level leaves the North Atlantic Treaty Organization  
(NATO) with no alternative but to mobilize the newly trained Afghan  
National Army into Pakistan whenever it sees fit.

Karzai said his country had the right to "self defense", adding, "When  
they [militants] cross the territory from Pakistan to come and kill  
Afghans and to kill coalition troops it gives us the right to go back  
and do the same.

"[Pakistani Taliban leader] Baitullah Mehsud should know that we will  
go after him now and hit him in his house. And the other fellow,  
[Taliban leader] Mullah Omar of Pakistan, should know the same," said  
Karzai.

Karzai was reacting to a bad week for the Afghan government and NATO,  
which lost at least 15 troops in various incidents. Kabul was  
embarrassed by a carefully planned operation in the southern city of  
Kandahar in which suicide bombers and about 100 Taliban attacked a  
jail, resulting in the death of nearly 20 security forces and the  
escape of over 1,000 prisoners, including 380 Taliban. And in another  
attack on Saturday, the governor of Helmand province was injured and  
the police chief killed.

NATO headquarters see the spate of violence as the result of the  
Taliban's training in Pakistani territory and their ability to easily  
cross the border into Afghanistan.

The Taliban completed their launch of men last month, promising  
specific, target-oriented attacks such as the jail operation.

In response, NATO wanted to catch the Taliban in a pincer movement,  
with Pakistani forces operating from the Mohmand and Bajaur tribal  
agencies and NATO across the border in Kunar and Nooristan provinces.  
(See Pakistan's grand bargain falls apart Asia Times Online, March 6.)

Asia Times Online was the first publication to write about US strikes  
using Predator drones and later a detailed story was published in the  
New York Times citing US officials who confirmed plans to target  
Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries in the Pakistani tribal areas, with  
Pakistani help.

Following US pressure, Pakistan prepared its plan, which Asia Times  
Online outlined on March 6:

     According to Asia Times Online contacts, a military operation is  
imminent, starting from a base camp in Peshawar in North-West Frontier  
Province (NWFP). The main focus will be Mohmand and Bajaur agencies,  
and some other tribal areas, to pre-empt the Taliban's spring  
offensive in Afghanistan.

     Under the initial plan, the operation would have been largely  
symbolic and the militants had been convinced that if they remained at  
the forefront and fought against Pakistani troops, their positions  
would be exposed to the foreign supervisors and they would sustain  
huge losses.

     Instead, if they struck ceasefire deals and retreated from  
forward positions to the border regions, they would be helped with  
advance information about possible raids and they could take  
alternative measures for their survival. They were categorically told  
that the operation was inevitable, so it would be best for them to  
take rear positions and flit on both sides of the border for their  
survival.

     The military rationale for adopting this approach was based on  
pragmatic grounds - that it would cause the militants to evacuate the  
main tribal areas for Afghanistan or the tribal fringes. This would  
allow secular Pashtun sub-nationalist forces to regain a hold in the  
area and develop an atmosphere of peace and reconciliation.

The scheme was a blueprint to get rid of the Taliban-led insurgency  
from Pakistan and force it back into Afghanistan, but NATO considered  
it a betrayal on the part of Pakistan, especially it turning a blind  
eye to the Taliban crossing the border with impunity.

Faced now with the very real threat of coalition raids into its  
territory, Pakistan might be forced to restart military operations in  
the tribal areas. Meanwhile, President Pervez Musharraf will have to  
play a significant role in reassuring Washington that Pakistan is  
still on board in the "war on terror" and that the Americans need to  
be patient. Time is not on his side, though.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He  
can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002 at yahoo.com