[R-G] GAO Report Challenges Effect of Longtime U.S. Sanctions on Iran

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

Very good news. -- Yoshie

"Iran Sanctions: Impact in Furthering U.S. Objectives Is Unclear and
Should Be Reviewed," GAO-08-58, December 18, 2007:
Highlights Page (PDF),
<http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d0858high.pdf>;
Full Report (PDF, 60 pages),
<http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0858.pdf>.

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/16/AR2008011603711.html>
GAO Report Challenges Effect of Longtime U.S. Sanctions on Iran
By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 17, 2008; Page A16

A three-year international effort to pressure Iran is faltering, with
a new report to Congress questioning the impact of 20 years of U.S.
economic sanctions on Tehran and a long-sought U.N. resolution against
Iran in trouble.

In a report released yesterday, the investigative arm of Congress
challenged the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran dating to 1987.
Tehran has circumvented many economic sanctions, it concluded, noting
Iran's ability to negotiate $20 billion in contracts with foreign
firms since 2003 to develop its energy resources. With the country's
oil wealth, Iranian banks also have funded their activities in
currencies other than the dollar.

"Iran's global trade ties and leading role in energy production make
it difficult for the United States to isolate Iran and pressure it to
reduce proliferation and support for terrorism," the Government
Accountability Office said. "Iran's overall trade with the world has
grown since the U.S. imposed sanctions, although this trade has
fluctuated."

The report also faults the Bush administration for not developing a
system to assess sanctions and recommends that Congress require the
National Security Council to do so and report results regularly to
Congress.

The Treasury Department countered that Iran faces "increased economic,
financial and political isolation" because of U.S. and U.N. sanctions,
with about 25,000 transactions worth more than $5 billion rejected
since 1997. Stuart A. Levey, undersecretary for terrorism and
financial intelligence, said many financial institutions had stopped
doing business with Iran.

The report comes as the Bush administration is struggling to salvage a
new U.N. resolution on Iran. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is
expected to meet with representatives of the world's major powers in
Berlin on Tuesday to try to work out disputes that have significantly
watered down new punitive measures on Iran, European and U.S.
officials said.

"The substance is getting smaller and smaller," said a senior European
official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because
of the sensitive diplomacy still underway. Some of the provisions in
the latest draft call for "monitoring" financial transactions with
Iran rather than freezing assets of institutions, banks and businesses
suspected of ties to nuclear proliferation.

The United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany backed
two modest resolutions -- in December 2006 and March 2007 -- demanding
Iran suspend its uranium enrichment, a process that can be used to
produce energy and to develop a nuclear weapon. After Tehran failed to
comply, the Bush administration called on the Security Council to
impose tougher restrictions on Iranian banks, financial institutions
and military.

"The whole strategy here is to use various kinds of diplomatic
pressure at a gradually increasing rate to try to get a different set
of decisions out of the Iranian leadership," State Department
spokesman Sean McCormack said.

After a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate last month said Iran had
halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, the Bush administration
has been under increasing pressure from across the Arab world not to
consider military options against Tehran. The Arab News yesterday
called President Bush's "saber rattling" against Iran during his
Middle East tour "sad, even depressing."

Undersecretary of State R. Nicholas Burns has had almost daily
conversations with allies over the past two weeks. "We still have some
gas left in the tank," a senior administration official said.

But the main product of eight months of intense diplomacy may be just
getting a resolution that still has limited practical impact on Iran,
European officials said. "Even if there's not much substance in the
end, at least we'll have a show of unity," one European official said.

Russia and China balked at earlier drafts. Both countries have
significant financial ties to Iran, with Moscow building Iran's first
nuclear reactor and China importing Iranian oil. The resolution is now
not expected to be put up for a vote until next month, U.S. and
European officials said.

The divisions among the world's major powers will make it increasingly
difficult for the Bush administration to achieve its goal of getting
Iran to suspend uranium enrichment before leaving office, diplomats
said.
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>