[R-G] Groundhog Day in Pyongyang

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

China and Russia check the USA in East as well as West Asia (M K
Bhadrakumar, "Bush's Last Throw against Iran," 10 January 2008,
<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JA10Ak03.html>
<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JA10Ak04.html>). -- Yoshie

<http://freekorea.us/2008/01/10/groundhog-day-in-pyongyang/>
Groundhog Day in Pyongyang

January 10, 2008 at 11:29 pm · Filed under Six-Party Talks, Diplomacy

Now that we've asked North Korea to tell us about its nuclear
programs, and now that North Korea has answered by telling us to
perform prostate exams on ourselves
<http://freekorea.us/2008/01/07/north-koreas-moment-of-untruth-and-chris-hills/>,
I suppose it's best if we at least pretend to do otherwise. Not that
the pretense is a convincing one. When Chris Hill tells us to react
"with patience and perseverance," understand that translating this
into the North Korean dialect yields something that also means, "How
about never? Is never good for you? Me too. I'll cable Washington."

Today, Hill is finishing a series of talks with other diplomats in
Seoul and Beijing. The Chosun Ilbo has an interesting summary of
Hill's meetings with the various players in Korean politics, including
Park Geun Hye and Park Jin, and of course, Lee Myung Bak. I have the
transcripts of what he told the press appended to the bottom of this
post. Really. The same inside, deep-cover source who provided those
transcripts (thanks, by the way) also tells me that Hill packed two
full pounds of this stuff for all of the rug burns he must be
accumulating on that vast, shiny forehead of his.

The most productive thing I know to have emerged from this is just
what we're going to do about North Korea missing that last deadline.
The answer, for now, is "nothing," aside from setting a new deadline,
which will do nothing but nullify the old one.  The new deadline is
February 25th.  That morning, if Kim Jong Il sees his porcine belly
while taking his morning pee, it will mean six more weeks until the
next six-week extension.  If you can think of a reason why this new
deadline will work any better than the last one, by the way, help us
out with that.  North Korea has been persistent about its disinterest
in disclosing anything for months now (and still is).  Here's a teaser
from the Hill transcripts below:

     QUESTION: What is your sense about what is holding back North Korea
     from offering this declaration? Is it specific elements in
dispute, or is it
     distrust about the wider political environment?

     ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No. I think you have to ask them. But
     some of the elements – and, again, I don't want to get into specifically
     identifying what they are, because if I identify certain elements as
     stumbling blocks then we will surely make them stumbling blocks — I
     think part of it is that the DPRK does not want to acknowledge certain
     activities, because to do so involves for them a change of how they
     have handled those activities in the past. So I think there is concern on
     their part that to acknowledge certain activities would invite additional
     questioning on our part and further scrutiny on things.

One significant thing will happen on February 25th, of course: as of
that day, President Roh Moo Hyun's replacement will be sworn in and
South Korea will have an actual functioning government (if I sold
"02.25.08" stickers, who would buy one?).  Non-anarchists will
appreciate that, and the relative absence of enemy sleeper agents in
the upper ranks of a nominally allied government always makes nuclear
diplomacy easier.  Yet I see zero evidence that our State Department
has any more idea of how to benefit from this than Richard Simmons
might from a Moonlight Bunny Ranch season pass.

Another line of speculation I'll advance is a report from the Hanky
that China has just cut off North Korea's supply of food aid,
supposedly because food prices in China have skyrocketed. That
wouldn't be the first time we've heard reports like this that turned
out to be overstated. It's occasionally in China's interests to seem
cooperative, but not always.  If the report is true, however, take it
in the context of this year's food situation in the North, which is
bad — probably bad enough to affect those few North Koreans who
actually matter to Kim Jong Il, along with plenty of others who don't.

The most significant fact here is that unlike Chris Hill, President
Bush doesn't have five more weeks to waste, except of course for the
fact that that's exactly what he's trying to do.  The most sobering
fact here is that everyone with any leverage over Kim Jong Il has an
incentive to stall.  Still, this isn't leading toward the sort of
legacy Bush or Rice will want their grandkids to read about.  I once
saw a wad of rubber bands pass through my dog more smoothly, and with
a more favorable outcome, than anything I've ever seen Chris Hill do.

Anyway, on to Hill's comments.  Hill makes the point that it's more
important that the declaration be complete than timely, when he
assuredly knows that he'll have to settle for neither of those things
unless he puts Kim Jong Il's head in a vice.  Read it in full below
the fold.

Read the rest of this entry »
<http://freekorea.us/2008/01/10/groundhog-day-in-pyongyang/#more-7249>
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>