[R-G] Venezuela's Bolivarian Revolution at a Turning Point

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

<http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3042>
Venezuela's Bolivarian Revolution at a Turning Point
January 7th 2008, by Gregory Wilpert

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . [I]t wasn't so much that those who had voted for Chávez in 2006
had now voted against him one year later. Rather, the opposition was
effective in turning out its supporters to vote against the reform,
while Chávez supporters abstained to a far higher degree than
opposition supporters did.3]

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The mood further soured because the government's public administration
had become inefficient and many of the president's supporters wanted
to send him a message. As the human rights group Provea reports, the
social programs, the missions for community health care, literacy
training, high school completion, public housing, subsidized food,
land reform, and employment through the creation of cooperatives, have
all been deteriorating in the past year.4] While pro-Chávez poor
Venezuelans appreciate the increase in social programs and spending
over the past four years,5] they are disappointed and frustrated at
the inefficiency with which these programs are managed.6] It did not
help that there was a severe milk shortage in October and November,
which made it almost impossible to find fresh milk, and hard to find
powdered milk.

The assumption is that, but for these reasons, all Chávez supporters
would have voted for the reform. Among hard-core Chávez supporters
there is a firm belief that the reform process would have helped
address the main issue: creating a society with greater social
justice. Whether the reform was necessary for this is not clear since
a large part of the reform could have been implemented through
ordinary legislation.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

[3] For example, in the mostly poor pro-Chavez neighborhood of 23 de
enero (which voted 75.6% for Chavez in 2006) voter turnout declined by
23% between the presidential election and the constitutional reform
referendum, while in the mostly middle class Caracas neighborhood of
El Recreo (which voted 70.3% for Rosales in 2006) voter turnout
declined by only 14%. (Source: CNE, www.cne.gov.ve)

[4] http://www.derechos.org.ve/publicaciones/infanual/2006_07/index.html

[5] Socialspending increased from 8.2% of GDP in 1998 to 13.2% of GDP
in 2005 (Source: Venezuelan Ministry of Planning and Development,
http://www.sisov.mpd.gov.ve/home/index.php)

[6] A compilation of typical complaints can be found in: "The wind
goes out of the revolution," The Economist, December 6,2007

<http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/3032>
Chavez Announces Major Cabinet Reshuffle
January 4th 2008, by Kiraz Janicke - Venezuelanalysis.com
The newly designated Vice-President Ramon Carrizales (Aporrea)

Caracas, January 4, 2008 (venzuelanalysis.com) - Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez announced a "profound restructuring" of his government,
including the appointment of a new Vice-President and changes in up to
13 out of 27 ministries in a surprise telephone call to current
affairs program Dando y Dando on Thursday night.

Chavez presented the changes in the framework of a new phase of the
Bolivarian revolution which he has denominated the three R's; 'revise,
rectify and reimpulse [sic],' with an emphasis on the formation of the
new United Socialist Party of the Venezuela (PSUV), first proposed
over a year ago in December 2006.

The government will also focus more on "the concrete problems of the
people," such as the construction of housing, rubbish collection,
inflation, crime and food shortages Chavez said, "less theory, more
praxis."

The change in tack comes after the rejection of a series proposed of
constitutional reforms in the referendum on December 2, signifying
Chavez's first electoral defeat since he was elected in 1998.

Ramón Carrizales, the Minister for Housing, will become the new
Vice-president of the Republic, Chavez confirmed, while outgoing
Vice-president Jorge Rodriguez, who was the co-ordinator of the
campaign for the failed constitutional reform, will be charged with
general co-ordination of the PSUV.

"I have met with Jorge Rodriguez and spoken about the PSUV, the
government and many other issues... Rodriguez will be dedicated
exclusively to the task of the party and the political battle," Chavez
said.

Minister of Telecommunications and Information Technology, Jesse
Chacón, was appointed as the new Secretary of the Presidency, taking
over from Erika Farias, and Socorro Hernández, president of the
recently nationalised telecommunications company CANTV, has replaced
Chacón.

Another important change in the cabinet is the replacement of
Communication and Information Minister, William Lara, by Andrés
Izarra, currently the president of Telesur and who previously held the
Communications and Information portfolio in 2005.

In light of the fierce opposition media campaign against the
constitutional reforms in the lead up to the referendum last year
Chavez also said it was necessary to examine the government's
communication strategy. In particular, the role of state owned VTV and
of Tves, (which assumed the public broadcast license of private TV
channel RCTV after it expired in May last year), which "hardly anyone
watches," should be assessed, Chavez said.

Izarra said today that Chavez's three R's; 'revise, rectify and
reimpulse,' should be applied to the Communications and Information
portfolio and proposed a plan of establishing a national nework of
community and alternative media to boost the "communication capacity"
of the revolution and combat the "savage" opposition media campaign.

Erika Farias will take over the portfolio of Popular Participation and
Social Development from former Communist Party member David Velásquez
and Jorge Pérez Prado, who was vice-Minister for Housing will replace
Carrizales as the new Minister for Housing.

In his new role as Secretary of the Presidency, Chacón also announced
a series of further changes today including, the appointment of Ramón
Rodríguez Chacín, co-ordinator of the suspended humanitarian mission
'Operation Emmanuel,' as the new Minister of Justice in place of Pedro
Carreño; Haiman El Troudi as Minister of Planning; Rafael Isea to
assume the portfolio of Finances, and Rodolfo Sanz as new Minister of
Mining and Basic Industry.

Félix Osorio Guzmán, president of Mission Mercal, a program which
provides government subsidized food, will become the new Minister of
Food and Victoria Mata was designated as Minister of Sport.

It is expected that Chavez will make further adjustments in the next few days.

Chavez also called for an alliance of "patriotic forces" in the next
round of elections for governors and mayors set for October this year,
which would involve the PSUV, Homeland for All (PPT) and the Communist
Party of Venezuela and announced that the founding congress of the
PSUV would commence on the 12th of January. The congress is expected
to last one month and will decide the political program, structure and
stautes od the new party.

<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i7EbR41gGVYppKaBPAobaH0KkvPwD8U0U3LO0>
Chavez to Slow Socialism Drive

By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER – 1 day ago

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Hugo Chavez is putting the brakes
on his drive for revolutionary change in Venezuela, shifting away from
radical socialist reforms in favor of a pragmatic focus on everyday
problems from soaring crime to trash-strewn streets.

The turn comes one month after voters rejected reforms that would have
greatly expanded his power and enshrined socialist principles in the
constitution.

"I'm forced to reduce the speed of the march," Chavez said Sunday,
telling new members of his Cabinet to "accept reality" and "put their
feet on the ground."

"This will be the year of the three R's: Revision, rectification and
relaunching," he said.

A close ally of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Chavez spent much of 2007
promoting his idyllic vision of a new Venezuela transformed through
"21st-century socialism," and he began by nationalizing the country's
electricity, telecommunications, natural gas and oil industries.

But Venezuelans tugged on the reins in December, narrowly voting down
his far-reaching constitutional changes — and forcing the former
paratroop commander to rethink his strategy for remaking this
oil-rich, yet poverty-stricken South American nation.

"The problem is not an abstract ideology, it's putting it to work,"
said Steve Ellner, a political science professor at Venezuela's
University of the East. "The ideologues have to demonstrate the
ideology can work."

Ellner expects Chavez to shelve "ambitious schemes that may be
criticized as impractical," such as building offshore cities similar
in design to oil platforms in the Caribbean Sea.

Instead, the government is turning its attention to entrenched
problems such as high crime and rampant corruption — which some say
Chavez has failed to correct nine years after he was first elected.

Polls show that rising crime rates — among the highest in the Western
Hemisphere — are a leading concern for Venezuelans. The Justice
Ministry reported 9,402 homicides in the country of 23 million in 2005
but has yet to reveal complete figures for 2006 or 2007.

"Insecurity and corruption, they are inherited evils that we must stop
cold and not allow to continue expanding. If we don't stop them, they
become the biggest enemy of our revolution," Chavez said Sunday during
his weekly radio and TV show. "I call for us to fight more
successfully against these scourges."

Venezuela also faces challenges such as a 22.5 percent annual
inflation rate last year — the steepest in Latin America — and
shortages of staples like milk, eggs, sugar and beef that have
prompted consumers to question the government's economic policies,
including price controls.

Others complain of bumper-to-bumper traffic that clogs the streets of
Venezuela's increasingly chaotic capital, as well as ineffectual
garbage collection in Caracas and other major cities.

"In a socialist country the streets cannot be filled with trash," Chavez said.

<http://www.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUSN0852160320080108>
UPDATE 3-Venezuela cuts foreign oil clients' payment time
Tue Jan 8, 2008 6:02pm EST

(Recasts, adds contract details from trading source)

By Enrique Andres Pretel

CARACAS, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Venezuela has slashed the time foreign
clients have to pay for its oil, in an unusual move that increases the
OPEC nation's control over its resources as its massive state oil
company apparently faces a cash crunch.

The company, PDVSA, said on Tuesday its demand for a payment within
eight days -- instead of the previous industry norm of 30 days -- was
prompted in part by weakness in the U.S. dollar and would give it more
liquidity for investment.

Industry officials say PDVSA periodically faces cash crunches despite
record crude prices, because the company hands over much of its income
to President Hugo Chavez to finance his leftist social programs for
his majority poor backers.

"With this measure PDVSA injects greater intensity and speed to
reinvestment with the aim of staying competitive in the hydrocarbons
market," the company said in a statement.

The company said it could not give further details and it was not
immediately clear if the changes would affect all crude purchases
including longer-term contracts.

But a source familiar with PDVSA sales said the new conditions only
affected spot sales.

The move was at least due in part to cash flow problems at the company
but could have the unintended consequence of reducing PDVSA's income,
he said.

"The decision hurts the price. Those clients that accept the new
conditions can demand a better price because there is an implied
financial cost for them in the transaction," he said.

PDVSA, which is the government's main source of income, has borrowed
heavily in recent and sometimes made in-kind payments to creditors in
crude to avoid spending cash, they say.

INDUSTRY ANGER

The decision angered oil industry players, frustrated by Chavez's
sudden rule changes that last year included nationalization decrees
seizing billions of dollars worth of foreign oil companies' assets.

"There he goes again, acting out against Western interests," said John
Kilduff, senior vice president at MF Global, who added that the change
could pressure the dollar.

Venezuela's relative short shipping distance from the U.S. Gulf Coast
may reduce the sting for its major clients but will likely be
particularly unwelcome to its Asian clients who have to wait up to 40
days for a shipment.

"It definitely makes Venezuelan crude less attractive to more distant
buyers," said a crude trader at one oil major.

With producer nations emboldened by world crude prices that hit $100
in recent days, the contract move showed Chavez's leftist government
flexing its muscles again.

Last year, he wrested a number of large oil projects from foreign
companies. Some, including Chevron Corp (CVX.N: Quote, Profile,
Research) and BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) stayed in the South
American nation under weaker terms.

This year, Chavez has promised to slow his socialist reforms, after a
painful referendum defeat showed voter dissatisfaction with more
down-to-earth problems like crime and irregular food supply.

PDVSA's reinvestment programs have been weighed down in recent years
by increased demands from the government for cash used in programs to
build clinics, schools and roads.

Analysts say output has fallen below the official amount of 3.2
million barrels per day. (Additional reporting by Saul Hudson in
Caracas and Robert Campbell in New York; Writing by Frank Jack Daniel;
editing by Marguerita Choy)

<http://oilwars.blogspot.com/2008/01/just-for-record.html>
Just for the record
As it does every year the Venezuelan Central Bank came out with a year
end report <http://www.bcv.org.ve/Upload/Publicaciones/mfa2007.pdf>
summarizing the state of the Venezuelan economy.

Although it was full of upbeat numbers, as it has been for the past
few years, I thought what was left unsaid was more important that what
it did say. No mention of the status of the Venezuelan currency, the
effects of it on the Venezuelan economy and when it might change.
Worse, there was no meaningful discussion of the future of the
Venezuelan economy and how it will progress when the price of oil is
no longer serving to push it forward. So on the whole, the report was
bland, deficient, and not all that worth reading.

However, there was one table of worthwhile statistics and it is worth
looking at it here:

<http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y218/oilwars/oilwars%202/BCVreport.jpg>

On the top we see how the economy and its different sectors grew in
the past year. Overall GDP growth slowed from 10.3% to 8.4%. Probably
the determining factor in why growth overall declined was that oil
production also declined - 5.3% according to this table. That is not
unexpected, Venezuela had to cut back in response to OPEC quotas and
there were some operational difficulties in the Orinoco oil operations
immediately after Venezuela assumed operational control of them. This
decline in oil production in part offset an increase in prices and as
a result oil revenues were fairly flat for the first part of the year.

There is nothing concerning in that - oil production has been
increased as OPEC raised its quotas and prices are now at record
levels. If that keeps up 2008 could be another very strong year for
the Venezuelan economy.

However, look at the break down of growth by sector and you can see
some REAL cause for concern. Note how in key sectors growth dropped
off significantly:

Mining growth dropped from 4.5% to 1.4%

Construction growth dropped from 35.6% to 10.2%

Manufacturing growth dropped from 9.7% to 7.5%

<http://www.aporrea.org/ddhh/a48445.html>
¿Qué le pasa Sr. Presidente?
Ligia Aparicio - www.aporrea.org
02/01/08 - http://www.aporrea.org/ddhh/a48445.html
De verdad me encuentro atónita e indignada por los acontecimientos de
los últimos días.

Sr. Presidente ¿Es que usted no se da cuenta de que con esa decisión
INCONSULTA de amnistía a todos aquellos que participaron activamente
en los sucesos de Abril del 2002, el paro petrolero, etc, etc, esta
dando rienda suelta, aún más, a la impunidad y al desacato a las leyes
de esta Répública?

¿Cómo cree usted que nos sentimos todos los venezolanos que nos
echamos a la calle a defender la constitución y a reclamar su regreso
a Miraflores en aquellos aciagos días?

¿Cómo cree usted que nos sentimos los que apoyamos este ansiado
proceso cuando, aún, no podemos ni mencionar algo que huela a chavismo
en muchos lugares de esta ciudad so pena de ser escupidos e
insultados, ante semejante decisión de indultar a los pocos que fueron
llamados a responder por los actos que ocasionaron dolor, muerte,
hambre y que jugaron con la necesidad de un pueblo que aguanto
estoicamente los sucesos de abril de 2002 y el paro petrolero?

No Sr. Presidente, esto no tiene razón de ser, le digo a usted como le
digo a mi hija, te amo, te quiero mucho pero está usted haciendo muy
mal, nada justifica esta llamada Amnistía, nada justifica que se le dé
la oportunidad a quienes ni siquiera se han arrepentido de lo que
hicieron, nada justifica que no se castigue a quien es responsable de
semejante delito. Si ellos quienes atentaron contra la PATRIA tienen
perdón, ¿Por qué entonces no libera a todos los presos de este país
que sea cual fueren sus delitos seguro no serán tan graves como el
haber TRAICIONADO el suelo que los vio nacer?

No puedo estar contenta con lo que vi y oí de su boca el día 31 desde
el Palacio de Miraflores ¡FELIZ AÑO a todas las COLOMBIANAS Y
COLOMBIANOS! ¿Y a los venezolanos y venezolanas que?

De verdad le pido a Dios que los secuestrados y no solo de Colombia,
sino de todo el mundo sean liberados sanos y salvos y regresados a sus
familias, apoyo el proceso de integración de América Latina, pero no
puedo sentirme colombiana, no Sr. Presidente, no puede sentirme sino
VENEZOLANA porque eso es lo que SOY y me duele verlo a usted que ha
sido nuestro guia y es nuestro líder más pendiente de lo que pasa en
Colombia y en otros países, y hasta sintiéndose colombiano, que
pendiente lo que pasa en NUESTRA QUERIDA VENEZUELA, nuestro país, que
debe ser nuestro principal objetivo, porque Sr. Presidente entienda
algo, no se le puede dar de comer a los hijos de los demás sino le
damos de comer a nuestros propios hijos, no se puede ayudar a los
demás si no ayudamos primero a los de nuestra propia casa.

Quizás algún dia pueda sentirme, no digo colombiana, sino tambien
peruana, boliviana, ecuatoriana, argentina, chilena, paraguaya,
brasilera, etc, etc, pero para sentirlo habrá que recorrer un largo
camino, donde impere la consideración y el respeto sincero entre todas
las naciones.

Usted mismo nos ha dicho siempre EL QUE TENGAS OJOS QUE VEA, EL QUE
TENGA OIDOS QUE OIGA! ya tiene un indicio con lo que paso el 3 de
diciembre pasado, que espera para hacer los correctivos necesarios?
que pase otro Abril 2002? y si llegara a pasar, ni Dios lo permita!
¿Cree usted que saldremos nuevamente a las calles a exponer nuestras
vidas?

Pienselo y reflexione le pido por Amor a Dios!!! Sr. Presidente.

lalinda1977 at hotmail.com
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>