[R-G] Russia Goes Its Own Way + Khamenei: Iran Sees "No Benefit" in Resuming Ties with the United States

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

Russia, among other key factors, has strengthened Iran's hands
immeasurably, which is reflected in Khamenei's new statements. --
Yoshie

<http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/01/opinion/edtakeyh.php>
Russia goes its own way
By Ray Takeyh and Nikolas Gvosdev
Tuesday, January 1, 2008

If the deadlock in the UN Security Council over the final status of
Kosovo signals any future trends, it is that Russia has finally
dispensed with any lingering beliefs that it should work with the
United States to set the global agenda.

One of the legacies that Vladimir Putin bequeaths to his successor is
Russia's changed position in the world. Moscow no longer has any
interest in making minor modifications to a policy largely
predetermined in Washington. And the principal beneficiary of this
changed perception may be Iran.

Because the revelations in December of the U.S. National Intelligence
Estimate have all but eliminated the military option in dealing with
Iran's nuclear intransigence, the Bush administration has refocused on
exerting diplomatic and economic pressure on the recalcitrant
theocracy. It is hoped that an escalating series of Security Council
resolutions would press Iran toward the suspension of the critical
enrichment component of its nuclear program. The reliance on the
Security Council as the principal platform for dealing with Iran is
surprisingly acceptable to both Moscow and Tehran.

Despite Washington's professions that the Security Council's rebukes
reflect international solidarity against Tehran, the Islamic Republic
has largely adjusted to the UN process. At first, Iran was concerned
about the Iraq precedent, whereby the U.S. employed the UN to isolate
and sanction Iraq for much of the 1990s, and then used Baghdad's lack
of compliance as the basis of its military intervention. Iran tried
hard to prevent the transfer of its nuclear file to the UN, and even
suspended its program from 2003 to 2005 in order to forestall that
development.

Moreover, Russia's acquiescence to America's requests did create
tension in its relations with Iran, leading some to conclude that
Putin was prepared to jeopardize the strategic and economic ties
between the two countries.

Russia does share one principal U.S. concern: Moscow has no desire to
see Iran possess nuclear weapons. The problem is that Russia has a far
narrower definition of the term than the U.S., which sees Iran's
entire nuclear infrastructure as constituting a weapons program. So
Russia has no difficulty going along with UN measures designed to
target a specific Iranian program to produce operational warheads, one
which the National Intelligence Estimate says has been inactive since
2003. At the same time, Russia is moving to establish itself as a
Middle East power independent of the West, and thus, can ill-afford to
antagonize Iran.

Tehran has found value in Moscow's clever strategy of endorsing
watered-down resolutions while deepening its relations with Iran. On
the one hand, Russian diplomats are in active negotiations with their
American counterparts for a third UN resolution against Iran. Yet,
Moscow is willing to provide fuel for Iran's light-water reactor in
Bushehr.

The incongruity of providing sensitive nuclear resources to a country
that is actively sanctioned for its nuclear malfeasance is not lost on
Iran's clerical elite. A similar pattern is continuing in other areas,
whereby Russia's complaints about Iran's nuclear activities has not
deter it from signing additional commercial contracts with Iran.

There are strong economic motives guiding the Russian designs, as
Moscow and Tehran together control roughly 20 percent of world's oil
reserves and close to half of the world's gas reserves. The two powers
could do much to dilute their respective leverage over the global
energy markets. Moreover, in addition to atomic power projects, Iran's
oil and gas sector offer many opportunities to Russian firms looking
for new investments. Keeping Iranian energy from becoming attractive
for European consumers, while financing projects that will tie
ever-hungrier South Asia and China into even greater dependence on
Iran benefits a number of Russian objectives.

However, reducing this relationship to economic impulses obscures the
equally compelling strategic rationale for improved ties between
Moscow and Tehran. Despite its unsavory reputation in the West, Iran
has acted responsibly in dealing with Muslim republics and populations
of Central Asia. The United States may view Iran as a revolutionary
power bent on upending the regional order. But for Russia, Iran is
largely a status quo state whose continued cooperation is critical for
stability in the Middle East and the projection of Russian influence
in that region. The strategic alignment between the two nations only
reinforces the economic interests.

The Bush administration, which has dedicated so much of its efforts to
rebuilding ties with Europe, has utterly failed to bridge the gap with
the Russian Federation. Having failed to stop the United States over
Kosovo and Iraq, Moscow's stance on Iran demonstrates Russia's return
as a major actor. For its part, Tehran has learned to love Russia's
strategy of placating the United States with superficial gestures
while enhancing its relations with Iran. In the coming months, there
will be ample Russian and American pledges of cooperation against
Iran's persistent nuclear violations. However, the strategic landscape
has changed. And that does not bode well for America's attempt to rein
in Iran.

Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is
the author of "Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic
Republic." Nikolas Gvosdev is editor of The National Interest.

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-7194979,00.html>
Khamenei: Wrong Time for Iran-US Ties
Thursday January 3, 2008 3:01 PM
By NASSER KARIMI

Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said
Thursday he was willing to improve relations with the United States
but that the moment was not right because it would make his country
more vulnerable to U.S. espionage.

Khamenei said restoring ties with the U.S. now would ``provide
opportunity for security agents to come and go, as well as for
espionage.''

``It has no benefit for Iranian nation,'' state radio quoted him as
saying at a student group meeting in the central province of Yazd. It
would be an ``opportunity for U.S. infiltration, traffic of their
intelligence agents and espionage of Iran.''

Iran last year claimed it uncovered spy rings organized by the U.S.
and its Western allies and detained a four Iranian-Americans, who were
later released. The arrests prompted the United States to warn its
citizens against traveling to Iran, accusing authorities there of a
``disturbing pattern'' of harassment.

The United States and Iran have had no diplomatic ties since the 1979
Islamic Revolution, when militants seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.
The dispute over Iran's nuclear program and U.S. allegations of
Iranian support for armed groups in Iraq have raised tensions.

``I would be the first one to support these relations,'' said
Khamenei, who has final say in all state matters. ``But for the time
being, it (restoring ties) is harmful and we should not pursue it.''

Washington has refused to hold talks with Iran over the issue of
diplomatic ties until Tehran suspends uranium enrichment, a process
that can be used to produce fuel for both nuclear energy and weapons.

But the two countries have held three rounds of ambassador-level
negotiations on security in Iraq, breaking the 27-year diplomatic
freeze.

Iran says its nuclear program is intended solely for energy
production, and Khamenei reiterated Thursday that his country would
continue to pursue it to generate some 20,000 megawatts of electricity
in the next two decades.

Washington's push for a third round of U.N. sanctions against Iran was
undermined by the release of a new U.S. intelligence report in
December, saying that Tehran suspended development of nuclear weapons
development under international pressure in 2003. It was a dramatic
turnaround from the previous U.S. stance that Iran restarted the
program in 2005.

<http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h1Brk-R6jhqgDP0eRS6ncYsIxFaQ>
Iran has no interest in US ties now: Khamenei

3 hours ago

TEHRAN (AFP) — Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday
that Iran sees "no benefit" in resuming ties with the United States at
the moment but does not rule out a resumption of relations in the
future.

In his most significant speech on foreign policy in several months,
Khamenei also vowed that Iran would not halt sensitive work on its
controversial nuclear programme as demanded by the West.

"Cutting ties with the United States is one of our basic policies. We
have never said that they will be cut for ever," Khamenei told
students in a speech in the central city of Yazd.

"The conditions of the US government are such now that it is harmful
for us to resume relations," he said, describing the United States as
a global "danger".

"Despite some talkative people's claims, it has no benefit for the
Iranian nation.

"The day that relations with the United States are beneficial to the
Iranian nation, I will be the first one to approve of that," he said.

The position of Khamenei as Iran's undisputed number one, which he
holds for life, takes him above the fray of day-to-day politics. Such
statements on major issues like US relations are made only
occasionally and are hugely significant.

Tehran and Washington have had no diplomatic links since 1980 when the
United States cut relations amid the siege of the US embassy in Tehran
by Islamist students that was to last a total of 444 days.

Exchanges since then have been marked by acrimony and suspicion,
although the two sides held talks on Iraqi security last year in the
highest level official contacts for almost three decades.

The United States was a major ally of the imperial regime of the last
shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi -- who was deposed by the Islamic
revolution in 1979 -- supplying vast quantities of military equipment.

Khamenei said the current US hostility to Iran had not been provoked
by firebrand statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other
officials against Tehran's arch enemy, known here as the "Great
Satan".

"Its enmity is with the principles of the Iranian nation and it has
been there since the beginning of the Islamic revolution," he said.

"Resuming relations will create the possibility of US influence (in
Iran) and the coming and going of US spies," he said. The massive
compound in central Tehran that housed the US embassy is known locally
as the "Den of Spies".

The two sides remain at loggerheads over the Iranian nuclear
programme, with the United States leading Western calls for Iran to
suspend uranium enrichment, which Washington fears could be used to
make nuclear weapons.

"The nation, which is carrying out enrichment by relying on itself,
will build the (nuclear) plants too. If the nation had not done
enrichment, it would be behind by years," he said.

Russia is building and supplying the fuel for Iran's first 1,000
megawatt nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr but
Khamenei reaffirmed his desire for Iran to construct and supply atomic
power plants independently.

"In the next 20 years, we should have at least 20,000 megawatts of
nuclear electricity," added Khamenei.

He angrily lashed out at moderates inside Iran who had cautiously
suggested that the country should consider suspending enrichment to
de-escalate the nuclear crisis.

"Some people challenge the system and the government over this and, in
line with the enemy, seek to create disappointment. The nation should
be watchful of such infiltrations."

Western powers have offered Iran full negotiations including with the
United States on the nuclear standoff if it suspends enrichment. But
Tehran has always responded it would only consider talks without
preconditions.

Iran has always insisted its nuclear programme, revived after Khamenei
became supreme leader in 1989, is aimed solely at producing nuclear
energy for a growing population whose fossil fuels will eventually run
out.

The United States has never ruled out military action against Iran but
a US intelligence report that said Tehran halted a nuclear weapons
programme in 2003 has taken the heat out of the crisis for the moment.

--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>