[R-G] The Taliban have Kabul in their sights

Thu Feb 28 11:35:01 MST 2008

Feb 27, 2008
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JB27Df01.html

The Taliban have Kabul in their sights
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - As Pakistani politicians scramble to form a coalition  
government following last week's parliamentary elections, there has  
been a surge in violence in the Swat Valley and in other parts of  
North-West Frontier Province, and on Monday a senior army officer was  
assassinated.

The indications are that whoever takes power in Islamabad - be it the  
Pakistan People's Party or the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif  
or a combination of both - the real battle will be in Afghanistan  
between the Taliban and al-Qaeda-led militants and the North Atlantic  
Treaty Organization (NATO) and its allies.

Army surgeon general Lieutenant General Muhammad Mushtaq Baig and  
seven other people were killed in a suicide attack in the garrison  
city of Rawalpindi. It was the most high-profile killing since the  
death of former premier Benazir Bhutto in the same city last December.

Apart from the Swat Valley, there has been an increase in violence,  
including bomb blasts, in the North Waziristan tribal area and Bajaur  
and Manshera agencies, after a brief lull in the runup to the  
elections. More than a dozen incidents have been reported.

The trigger for this appears to have been planned joint Pakistan-NATO  
operations in the region against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The  
militants aim to open up several fronts in Pakistan to dissuade the  
military from cooperating with NATO.

This situation is an embarrassment to the security apparatus as it  
was believed that following recent countrywide operations that  
uncovered militant cells in Karachi, Rawalpindi, Mianwali, Bannu and  
Dera Ismail Khan that the problem was being contained.

The regional war

Asia Times Online investigations show that the Taliban's three- 
pronged plan for their spring offensive comprises cutting off NATO's  
supply lines running from Pakistan to Afghanistan, recruiting fresh  
volunteers and, most importantly, the creation of a strategic  
corridor running from Pakistan all the way to the capital Kabul.

Since being ousted in 2001 and waging annual spring offensives, this  
is the first time the Taliban have come up with the idea of creating  
such a corridor.

The long road to Kabul
As things stand, the Taliban have established pockets of resistance  
all around Kabul, in addition to more settled pockets across the  
country. The Taliban roam around freely in the eastern province of  
Wardak, just 30 kilometers from Kabul.

But now the Taliban want to connect the dots, as it were, to ensure a  
quick and steady supply of arms and men to reinforce the pockets  
sufficiently for attacks on the capital.

It is envisaged that the corridor initially starts in Mohmand Agency  
and Bajaur Agency in Pakistan and then passes through Kunar and  
Nooristan provinces all the way to the Taghab Valley in Kapisa  
province in the northeast about 100 kilometers from the capital.

In 2006, the Taliban seized the strategic Taghab Valley - as well as  
the Musayab Valley to the south of Kabul - with the goal of an  
assault on the capital, but because of limited supply lines they were  
only able to maintain their positions for a few months.

This year, the Taliban aim to retake these positions, while having in  
place secure supply lines starting in the Pakistani tribal areas to  
maintain a steady stream of men and resources.

Over the past year, the Taliban have increased the number of their  
fighters in Mohmand Agency to 18,000 and to between 20,000 to 25,000  
in Bajaur Agency. Taliban quarters believe this will provide  
sufficient strength to ensure operation, which is due to run from  
April to September.

The counter-strategy

This steady gathering of forces in the two agencies did not go  
unnoticed by NATO. So, with Pakistani assistance, NATO will increase  
military operations aimed at nipping the corridor idea in the bud.

American special ground troops have escalated their activities in  
Kunar and Nooristan provinces and a US base in Kunar, just three  
kilometers from Bajaur Agency, is now fully operational. Once the  
operations are in full swing, Pakistan will provide assistance  
through its air base in Peshawar for attacks on militant bases in the  
agencies.

"The operation has to start in the month of March as the Taliban have  
to launch their operation in April," a Pakistani security official  
told Asia Times Online.

However, Pakistan's plans could still be derailed. A powerful  
lawyers' movement is scheduled to launch protests on March 9 to  
pressure the new government into ousting President Pervez Musharraf.  
This would certainly delay any decision on Pakistan taking on the  
militants in a big way.

The lawyers are agitating for the reinstatement of members of the  
higher judiciary "who ceased to be judges" after Musharraf imposed  
emergency rule on November 3. Musharraf also suspended chief justice  
Iftikhar Chaudhry last March,a move that set off country-wide protests.

Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, will be doing its best to fuel these flames to  
force Pakistan to back off and leave the way clear for the Taliban's  
corridor.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He  
can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002 at yahoo.com