[R-G] Taliban Raids on NATO Convoys Crippling - Analysts

[Anthony Fenton]

PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN:  Taliban Raids on NATO Convoys Crippling -  
Analysts
By Zofeen Ebrahim
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=45107

KARACHI, Dec 14 (IPS) - While NATO and United States forces have  
downplayed raids in Peshawar by pro-Taliban militants, destroying  
hundreds of their military vehicles and supply containers destined for  
Afghanistan, analysts here believe that the damage is significant.

On Saturday the militants destroyed 11 trucks and 13 containers in the  
latest of a series of attacks over the past week designed to disrupt  
supply lines to NATO and U.S. troops fighting the ‘war on terror’ in  
Afghanistan

Saturday’s raid defied increased security for some 13 supply terminals  
around Peshawar, ordered after a major raid last weekend in which  
hundreds of trucks and containers were torched.

After that raid, the U.S. military in Afghanistan had played down the  
damage in a statement that said it would have only "minimal effect on  
our operations’’. U.S. military spokeswoman in Kabul Lt. Col. Rumi  
Nielsen-Green was quoted saying: "It's militarily insignificant.’’

But analysts here think otherwise and say that if the attacks continue  
they will impact plans to double the strength of NATO troops in  
Afghanistan from the present 67,000 -- nearly half of them from the U.S.

"More troops mean more supplies," said Ikram Sehgal, a noted defence  
analyst.

Sehgal does not buy the U.S. dismissal of the attacks as  
insignificant. "If I’m hurt bad, I’m not going to own up. It is a  
significant loss whether they (U.S.) admit it or not. It will create  
horrendous problems."

If troop deployment is increased as planned then an estimated 70,000  
containers of supplies will have to be shipped to Afghanistan annually.

"If the supply lines are cut off, it will have a choking effect on the  
troops," said Brig. Mehmood Shah, former home secretary of the  
Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) that borders Afghanistan.

Already NATO has begun looking for alternative supply routes to  
Afghanistan, even through Belarus and the Ukraine.

Contractors engaged in moving the containers are jittery at the  
possible loss in business.

Kifayatullah Jan, manager at the Port World Logistics, a contractor  
that has been ferrying NATO supplies, said last week’s attack on their  
terminal, in which 106 containers were torched, "must have cost the  
U.S. millions’’.

"And if the loss to the U.S. is insignificant, for us it may mean we  
close shop," said Jan, talking to IPS from Peshawar over telephone.  
"We can’t do business if the government cannot provide us protection,"  
he said. According to Jan, the company and its drivers receive regular  
threats from militants to "stop transporting supplies to the Americans  
or face the consequences."

In March, insurgents torched 40-50 NATO oil tankers near Torkham. In  
April, a military helicopter valued at 13 million US dollars was  
hijacked. And in July, there were sporadic attacks on the convoys.  
Last month, some 60 Taliban fighters hijacked a convoy of trucks in  
broad daylight as it was travelling through the Khyber pass.

Talk of alternative supply routes have been going on since September.  
According to the Washington Post, the U.S. defence department was  
seeking safer but longer routes through Europe, the Caucasus and  
Central Asia due to "strikes", "border delays", "accidents and  
pilferage" in Pakistan.

"The Iran route is out. And they simply cannot airlift the supplies  
because it would be far too costly. But the supplies can come from the  
north," suggested Sehgal.

"The supplies can pass through the northern route by rail through  
Russia and the Central Asian nations to northern Afghanistan," agreed  
Mehmood Shah, but added: " It’s a poor alternative and will take very  
long to reach southern Afghanistan.’’

About 75 percent of supplies, including food, fuel, equipment and  
vehicles meant for the allied forces in Afghanistan pass through  
Pakistan’s Khyber Pass, after being offloaded from ships at the  
southern port city of Karachi. A second overland route connects  
Pakistan’s Quetta city with Kandahar in Afghanistan.

Pakistan represents the shortest land route to Afghan cities like  
Kandahar and Kabul.

In last week’s attack on the Port World terminal, the security guards  
on duty watched helplessly as around 300 militants blasted their way  
into two transport terminals and torched vehicles.

"These included APC jeeps, trucks, lifters and fire brigades," said  
Jan. "They came through the main gate which they destroyed using a  
rocket-propelled grenade and set fire to 106 vehicles including 80-90  
Humvees. They also shot dead one of the guards.’’

"I was in my village near Charsadda, less than a hour from Peshawar,  
when the guards telephoned me around 3:15 am. There was no way the  
dozen or so of our guards could confront the militants who were armed  
with sophisticated weapons,’’ Jan said.

According to Shah, the attackers were criminal elements and not  
necessarily the Taliban as they latter have still not entered the  
settled area. "However, they all work hand-in-glove. And for all we  
know, they may have carried out the attack at the behest of the  
Taliban."

However, Rahimullah Yusufzai, resident editor of English daily, The  
News thinks otherwise. An expert on the Taliban he said: "These recent  
attacks show that militants are slowly moving into the settled area;  
that they have gained strength, and are not afraid," he said. "It also  
shows how weak the government is and that it cannot protect anyone."

Yusufzai told IPS that the earlier hijackings of convoys on the  
highways were only possible if the drivers, and perhaps even the  
contractors, were in collusion with the Taliban.

Terming these depots as "soft" targets, Sehgal said it is easier to  
attack such passive locations than intercept convoys that are  
protected by Pakistan’s Frontier Constabulary (FC) militia.

While past attacks have been limited to pilfering and sale of the loot  
in the local markets, the latest attacks were intended to disrupt  
supplies. "This means they want to sever the supply lines to make it  
unsustainable for the deployed forces," said Sehgal.

Yusufzai observed that the Taliban were adopting the age-old strategy  
of cutting off supply lines from the south. "It also signifies that  
the capacity and numbers of the militants have grown despite the  
army’s claim of annihilating entire villages in the tribal areas."

"This war on terror has unleashed more horrors than one can imagine.  
The Pakistan army, by its own act has steered civilians towards  
militancy. In a bid to capture one Talib, entire villages have turned  
into Talibans," said Yusufzai.

(END/2008)