[R-G] Taliban in 72 percent of Afghanistan, think-tank says

[Anthony Fenton]

Taliban in 72 percent of Afghanistan, think-tank says
Mon Dec 8, 2008 6:00am EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B70YB20081208?sp=true

By Jon Hemming

KABUL (Reuters) - The Taliban hold a permanent presence in 72 percent  
of Afghanistan, a think-tank said on Monday, but NATO and the Afghan  
government rejected the report, saying its figures were not credible.

The findings by the International Council on Security and Development  
(ICOS) come in the wake of a series of critical reports on Western-led  
military and development efforts to put an end to the seven-year  
Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

The U.S. government is conducting a wide-ranging review of strategy  
aimed at countering the Taliban guerrilla and bombing campaign which  
analysts agree has grown in both scale and scope in the last year.

But while the trends in the ICOS report reflected prevailing sentiment  
on Afghanistan, many of its findings appeared flawed and contained  
some glaring errors, security analysts said.

"The Taliban now has a permanent presence in 72 percent of the  
country," ICOS, formerly known as the Senlis Council, said in the  
report, adding that the figure had risen from 54 percent last year.

ICOS is an independent think-tank and research organization based in  
Brazil that has researchers in the region.

The report defines a permanent presence as an average of one or more  
insurgent attacks per week over the entire year.

According to ICOS, a "permanent presence" then would include many  
areas of the country where the Taliban traditionally launch a large  
number of attacks in the spring and summer "fighting season," before  
melting away during the harsh winter months.

"We don't see the figures in this report as being credible at all,"  
said NATO spokesman James Appathurai. "The Taliban are only present in  
the south and east which is already less than 50 percent of the  
country."

The Afghan government also rejected the report and said "in addition  
to the questionable methodology of the report and its conceptual  
confusion, the report has misinterpreted the sporadic, terrorizing and  
media-oriented activities of the Taliban."

CLOSING ON KABUL?

At least 4,000 people have been killed in fighting in Afghanistan this  
year, around a third of them civilians, according to United Nations  
figures.

In the traditional Taliban heartlands of the mainly ethnic Pashtun  
south and east, NATO-led and U.S.-led coalition forces are engaged in  
daily clashes with militants fighting to overthrow the Afghan  
government and drive out foreign troops.

But the insurgents generally shy away from massed attacks against  
Afghan and international troops, preferring "shoot and scoot"  
ambushes, backed by roadside and suicide bomb attacks.

The Taliban, said Appathurai, "don't control any areas where Afghan  
and international forces are present. Whenever Afghan or international  
forces patrol into an area they simply run away."

"So the idea that the Taliban control large swathes of the country is  
simply impossible," Appathurai said.

ICOS said the Taliban are "closing a noose" around the Afghan capital,  
Kabul, "establishing bases close to the city from which to launch  
attacks ... Using these bases, the Taliban and insurgent attacks in  
Kabul have increased dramatically."

While the Taliban have built up a presence in provinces just to the  
south, west and east of Kabul in the last year, the number of  
insurgent attacks inside the city has actually gone down this year,  
the U.N. says.

That is largely due to a much stronger and highly visible police  
presence in the city in response to a series of high-profile suicide  
attacks in Kabul last year.

ICOS said Kabul was "virtually Taliban-free a year ago" and said in  
the city there were "no police checkpoints at night and few in the day."

An ICOS map of Kabul also showed the area occupied by the U.S.  
embassy, the sprawling NATO headquarters and the Afghan presidential  
palace as one of "high Taliban/criminal activity."

(Additional reporting by Golnar Motevalli; Editing by Paul Tait)