[R-G] Western forces poised to halt Taliban tide

[Anthony Fenton]

Western forces poised to halt Taliban tide
By Kim Sengupta and Andrew Buncombe
Monday, 25 August 2008
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/western-forces-poised-to-halt-taliban-tide-908316.html

The cross-border flow of militants has resulted in a blurring of the  
distinction between Pakistan Taliban and the Taliban

Western special forces are poised to increase their clandestine  
military operations in Pakistan to stop the flood of Taliban fighters  
pouring into Afghanistan, amid concerns that the militants are  
"winning the war".

As fears grow that the Taliban's strength has been underestimated and  
not enough is being done to stop militants crossing Afghanistan's  
porous border, Western forces are considering taking the controversial  
step of carrying out more missions in Pakistan.

In recent weeks, increased attacks by Taliban fighters on Western and  
Afghan targets, including the killing of 10 French soldiers and the  
attempted storming of an American base, have been linked by Nato  
officials to peace deals struck between the militants and Pakistan's  
government and an unwillingness in some parts of the Islamabad  
establishment to |confront extremists.

At the same time, the widespread condemnation by Afghans, including  
President Hamid Karzai, of a Nato-led air raid aimed at a Taliban  
commander which killed up to 90 civilians, including women and  
children, has added impetus to the need for more on-the-ground  
operations.

At the weekend, the de facto leader of Pakistan's government, Asif Ali  
Zardari, admitted: "The world is losing the war. I think at the  
moment, the Taliban definitely has the upper hand."

The resurgent Taliban has profited from the increased political  
turmoil in Pakistan, which saw Pervez Musharraf, considered by the  
West to be a stalwart ally, resign as president last week.

Earlier today, the chaos deepened as the former Pakistani prime  
minister, Nawaz Sharif, withdrew from the coalition government in a  
row over the reinstatement of sacked judges. While his resignation  
will be unlikely to trigger a snap election, it adds to the confusion  
and the belief by some analysts that militants have seized on a  
perceived power vacuum in Islamabad since February's elections, which  
installed the civilian government.

Meanwhile, under pressure from Washington, which has provided it with  
millions of dollars, Pakistan's government announced yesterday it was  
outlawing the main Taliban organisation in the country, the Tehrik-e- 
Taliban Pakistan, saying it would freeze its assets. Pakistan's  
Interior Minister, Rehman Malik, said: "This organisation is a  
terrorist organisation and has created mayhem against public life."  
The group has claimed responsibility for a wave of suicide bombings  
that have killed hundreds since the fragile civilian government took  
power.

American, British and Afghan officials claim there are up to 80  
rudimentary Taliban and al-Qa'ida training camps in Pakistan, churning  
out insurgents often with the connivance of elements in the Pakistani  
military and the notorious ISI intelligence service. The cross-border  
flow of militants has resulted in a blurring of the distinction  
between Pakistan Taliban and the Taliban "proper". Mullah Omar, the  
Taliban leader, is believed to be living in Pakistan's tribal areas,  
as is Osama bin Laden.

But increasing the number of clandestine operations inside Pakistan  
would be a major step, with huge potential for serious repercussions.  
While it is generally recognised that the CIA and special forces  
operate covertly in the country, the subject is sensitive and not  
publicly discussed. Previously, Pakistan forces have publicly taken  
responsibility for missile attacks and other military strikes probably  
carried out by US forces.

To enable the clandestine operations, it is understood the US has  
established bases just inside Afghanistan's border with Pakistan. They  
include Lowara Mundi, facing North Waziristan, Mughalgai, across the  
border from the training camp of the Taliban commander Maulvi  
Jalaluddin Haqqani, and Gurbaz near Khost.

Yet the challenge presented is far from straightforward and, for all  
of the West's rhetoric about the so-called war on terror, there is no  
easy fix. Recent military operations in the tribal areas by Pakistani  
forces – carried out under pressure from the West – have caused a  
refugee crisis, with up to 300,000 civilians fleeing the Bajaur region  
alone.

Military operations have increasingly resulted in retaliatory suicide  
bomb attacks, the most recent at a weapons factory near Islamabad in  
which about 80 people were killed. While the West may criticise the  
civilian government's efforts to broker peace deals with the Taliban,  
Mr Musharraf – whom it supported for so long – did the same thing when  
it suited him.

Covert operations in Pakistan were curtailed after the country's  
election so as not to embarrass and antagonise the newly elected  
civilian government. But the exasperation felt at the seeming failure  
of the Pakistanis to control the Taliban was made clear to the new  
head of the Pakistani army General Ashfaq Kayani, during meetings in  
the Afghan capital with US General David McKiernan, head of the  
International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) and General Bismillah  
Khan, Afghanistan's chief of general staff.

Meanwhile, the US has also provided Pakistan with what it says is  
clear evidence that elements of the ISI were involved in the recent  
bomb attack on India's embassy in Kabul, resulting in 54 deaths.

One senior Western commander involved in the Afghan operations said:  
"The facts are pretty plain, the deals across the border have led to a  
significant rise in insurgent activities here in Afghanistan. We know  
where these guys are being trained and armed to be sent to Afghanistan  
to kill civilians and Afghan and coalition troops. This is obviously a  
political hot potato, but we would be failing in our duty if we did  
not seek to counter this."

Asked why operations against the Taliban were not being left to the  
Pakistanis, he said: "I can only echo what President Bush told the  
visiting Pakistanis the other day – that, in effect, information we  
share with them seems to end up with the bad guys."

Anthony Cordesman, of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and  
International Studies said he believed a resurgent al-Qa'ida,  
harboured by the Taliban in the years before the suicide attacks of 11  
September 2001, could be the result of failing to tackle the militants  
emanating from Pakistan's tribal areas. He added: "The US is now  
losing the war against the Taliban. Pakistan may officially be an ally  
but much of its conduct has made it a major threat to US strategic  
interests."

A number of Taliban leaders have been killed and captured in Pakistan  
by US-led forces engaged in a counter-terrorist operations. They are,  
however, formally considered a separate mission, which allows the Nato- 
led Isaf to say it is not involved.

In contrast to the Taliban, which has a steady source of recruits from  
Pakistan, Nato forces continue to be tightly stretched. The US is due  
to dispatch between 7,000 and 10,000 extra troops to Afghanistan, but  
other countries in the alliance have been less forthcoming.

Many of the member nations, including France, Canada and Germany, are  
already facing hostile public opinion by deploying soldiers in  
Afghanistan.