[R-G] Pakistan After Musharraf

[Anthony Fenton]

How Long Before the Military is Back at the Helm?
Pakistan After Musharraf
http://counterpunch.org/tariq08182008.html
By TARIQ ALI

Pakistan’s military dictators never go quietly. Field-Marshal Ayub was  
removed by a three-month long popular insurrection in March 1969.  
General Yahya Khan destroyed Pakistan before he departed in 1972.  
General Zia-ul-Haq (the worst of the lot) was blown up in his military  
pl;ane rtogether with the US Ambassador in 1988. And now General  
Musharraf is digging his heels. There is a temporary stalemate in  
Pakistan. The Army is in favour of him going quietly, but is against  
impeachment. Washington is prepared for him to go, but quietly. And  
last Friday the chief of Saudi intelligence agency, Prince Muqrin bin  
Abdul Aziz, had secretly arrived in Pakistan and held talks with  
coalition leaders and President Musharraf. He wants a ‘safe exit’ for  
the president. Sanctuaries in Manhattan, Texas and the Turkish island  
of Büyükada (Prinkipo) are being actively considered. The General  
would prefer a large estate in Pakistan, preferably near a golf  
course, but security considerations alone would make that infeasible.

One way or another he will go soon. Power has been draining away from  
him for over a year now. Had he departed peacefully when his  
constitutional term expired in November 2007 he would have won some  
respect. Instead he imposed a State of Emergency and sacked the Chief  
Justice of the Supreme Court. In January, the latter wrote an open  
letter to Nicolas Sarkozy, Gordon Brown, Condoleezza Rice and the  
president of the European Parliament. The letter, which remains  
unanswered, explained the real reasons for Musharraf’s actions:

     At the outset you may be wondering why I have used the words   
‘claiming to be the head of state’. That is quite deliberate. General  
Musharraf’s constitutional term ended on 15 November 2007. His claim  
to a further term thereafter is the subject of active controversy  
before the Supreme Court of Pakistan. It was while this claim was  
under adjudication before a bench of 11 learned judges of the Supreme  
Court that the general arrested a majority of those judges in addition  
to me on 3 November 2007. He thus himself subverted the judicial  
process which remains frozen at that point. Besides arresting the  
chief justice and judges (can there have been a greater outrage?) he  
also purported to suspend the constitution and to purge the entire  
judiciary (even the high courts) of all independent judges. Now only  
his hand-picked and compliant judges remain willing to ‘validate’  
whatever he demands. And all this is also contrary to an express and  
earlier order passed by the Supreme Court on 3 November 2007.

Now Musharraf will go in disgrace, threatened with impeachment and  
abandoned by most of his cronies, who grew rich under his rule and are  
now sidling shamelessly in the direction of the new power-brokers. The  
country has moved seamlessly from a moth-eaten dictatorship to a moth- 
eaten democracy. Six months after the old, morally obtuse, political  
gangs returned to power, the climate has further deteriorated. The  
widower Bhutto and his men are extremely unpopular. The worm-eaten  
tongues of long discredited politicians and resurrected civil servants  
are on daily display. Removing Musharraf, who is even more unpopular,  
might win the politicians some time, but not for long.

Amidst the hullabaloo there was one hugely diverting moment last week  
that reminding one of pots and kettles. Asif Zardari, the caretaker- 
leader of the People’s Party who runs the government and is the second  
richest man in the country (funds that accrued when his late wife was  
Prime Minister) accused Musharraf of corruption and siphoning official  
US funds to private bank accounts. For once the noise of laughter  
drowned the thunder of money.

Musharraf’s departure will highlight the problems that confront the  
country, which is in the grip of a food and power crisis that is  
creating severe problems in every city. Inflation is out of control  
and was approaching the 15 percent mark in May 2008. Gas (used for  
cooking in many homes) prices have risen by 30 percent. Wheat, the  
staple diet of most people has seen a 20 percent price hike since  
November 2007 and while the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organisation  
admits that the world's food stocks are at record lows there is an  
additional problem in Pakistan. Too much wheat is being smuggled into  
Afghanistan to serve the needs of the NATO armies. The poor are the  
worst hit, but middle-class families are also affected and according  
to a June 2008 survey, 86 percent of Pakistanis find it increasingly  
difficult to afford flour on a daily basis, for which they blame their  
own new government.

Other problems persist. The politicians are weak and remain divided on  
the restoration of the judges sacked by Musharraf. The Chief Justice,  
Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, is the most respected person in the  
country. Zardari is reluctant to see him back at the head of the  
Supreme Court. A possible compromise might be to offer him the  
Presidency. It would certainly unite the country for a short time.

Over the last fifty years the US has worked mainly with the Pakistan  
Army. This has been its preferred instrument. Nothing has changed. How  
long before the military is back at the helm?

Tariq Ali’s latest book, ‘The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of  
American Power’ will be published on September 15 by Scribner.