[R-G] West key irritant in Georgia conflict

[Anthony Fenton]

West key irritant in Georgia conflict
Russian support of South Ossetia's wish to unite with northern  
brethren has triggered latest violence
  David Marples
The Edmonton Journal
http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=227207c9-22bf-4210-8fd0-61232a906028&sponsor=
Saturday, August 09, 2008

On Friday, Georgia launched an attack on its autonomous republic of  
South Ossetia in an apparent bid to remove a separatist government and  
reincorporate the region into Georgia. Russia responded with air  
strikes and reportedly casualties within the main South Ossetian city  
of Tskhinvali have been heavy. How did this crisis develop and what  
are the possible solutions to it?

South Ossetia is a small mountainous region occupied mainly by  
Ossetians (about 65 per cent) and Georgians (about 30 per cent). To  
the north lies North Ossetia, an autonomous republic within the  
Russian Federation. Many South Ossetians wish to reunite with their  
northern compatriots. In 1992, they held a referendum in support of  
independence, which was supported by a large majority. However, the  
international community did not recognize the results.

In 2003, after what was termed the "Rose Revolution," Mikheil  
Saakashvili was elected Georgian president and took office in January  
2004. He made it clear his priorities were NATO and EU membership as  
well as renewed negotiations with de facto independent regimes in  
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He received encouragement from the United  
States, which recognizes the territorial integrity of Georgia, as well  
as from NATO, which has indicated that Georgia will soon be accepted  
as a member.

These developments incensed Russia, which regards the area as a vital  
part of its sphere of interest. After the 1992 conflict, Russia sent  
several hundred peacekeepers into South Ossetia. It also offered  
Russian passports to ethnic Ossetians for their own protection, and  
about half of South Ossetian residents are now officially Russian  
citizens. Georgia claims that Russian planes have frequently violated  
Ossetian airspace and that Russia's goal is the outright incorporation  
of South Ossetia and its reunion with the northern territory.

In 2006, South Ossetia once again held a referendum, which again voted  
overwhelmingly for independence. Although international observers were  
present to monitor the vote, and it was reported that 99 per cent of  
South Ossetians supported the motion, Georgians were disenfranchised.  
Therefore, the UN and EU did not recognize it as valid. The Western  
powers also maintained that any referendum required the consent of the  
Georgian government in Tblisi, the rightful ruler of the territory.

Today there are effectively two governments in South Ossetia: an  
unrecognized de facto separatist government based in Tskhinvali under  
Eduard Kokoiti, 44, a former wrestling champion, and an alternative  
pro-Georgian Provisional Government of South Ossetia that is led by  
Ossetian Dmitri Sanakoev, aged 39, formerly an officer in the Soviet  
army. Sanakoev was inaugurated as "president" in a village several  
kilometers to the north-east of Tskhinvali on Dec. 1, 2006.

Koikoiti wishes to unite the two Ossetias under the umbrella of  
Russia. Sanakoev's government derives from another 2006 referendum  
held among the Georgian and Ossetian population, organized by the  
"Salvation Union of South Ossetia." He has received encouragement from  
the U.S. and has presented a speech in Brussels to EU and Georgian  
parliamentary officials. However, his election according to most  
accounts was not democratic, and he enjoyed a near total monopoly of  
the Georgian media. Moreover, it seems inconceivable that a lasting  
solution to the Ossetian question can be found without reflecting the  
wishes of the titular population.

Although South Ossetia has a population of only about 70,000 and few  
major resources--it is mainly mountainous--the conflict that broke out  
on Aug. 8 could develop into a major international problem. Georgia's  
sudden assault on Tskhinvali represents an attempt to resolve an  
intractable issue by force. Russia, in turn, responded with air  
strikes on the grounds that several of its peacekeepers died during  
the invasion.

In the earlier 1991-92 conflict there were many examples of "ethnic  
cleansing." Thousands of Ossetians fled into Russia, and over 20,000  
Georgians moved into Georgia proper. Though the two peoples have also  
enjoyed long periods of peaceful cohabitation and have intermarried  
extensively, there is a danger that ethnic conflict could now develop  
in full. Moreover, the Russian Caucasus is already volatile because of  
the continuing war in Chechnya as well as violence in Daghestan and  
Ingushetia.

Neither the Western nor Russian attitudes to the issue seem  
particularly helpful. The West was quick to recognize Kosovo,  
essentially a second Albanian state in Europe that declared unilateral  
independence, but seems reticent about South Ossetia, which has  
expressed a similar wish. Some analysts perceive the conflict as  
originating with and exacerbated by Russia, and there are numerous  
citations of Russian violations of Georgian airspace. The circulation  
of the Russian ruble in South Ossetia is perceived as a symbol of  
Russia's intentions.

However, there should be some room for manoeuvring between the major  
powers if they wish to resolve the dispute peacefully. Russia is  
unwilling to become involved in a major military conflict despite its  
support for South Ossetian separatism. Georgia cannot continue to  
occupy a region that has expressed a clear desire for independence.

Though Russia responded with unwarranted violence, it is the West and  
its new ally Georgia that needs to find a compromise solution.  
Georgia's territorial integrity--notwithstanding Russian pressure--is  
no longer viable within its current territory, if indeed it ever was.  
Saakashvili bears responsibility for the sudden invasion, carried out  
at a time when world leaders are focused on the Olympic Games in  
Beijing. Georgian control over its wayward province cannot be  
established without bloodshed.

David Marples is professor of history at the University of Alberta and  
director of the Stasiuk Program on Contemporary Ukraine at the  
Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies.