[R-G] Dissecting the Politics of Paraguay’s Next President

[Anthony Fenton]

Dissecting the Politics of Paraguay’s Next President  	
Written by April Howard & Benjamin Dangl
Thursday, 10 April 2008
http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/1218/1/

Fernando Lugo, a bearded, left-leaning bishop is expected to win  
Paraguay’s historic presidential election on April 20th, upsetting a  
60-year rule by the right wing Colorado Party. While escaping the heat  
of the Paraguayan sun by sitting in the shade of an orange tree,  
farmer union leader Tomas Zayas explains, “If Lugo is elected, it will  
open a door for more changes in the future, but that’s all. We’ll take  
what we can get.”

As much of the rest of Latin America shifts to the left, Paraguay  
remains a key ally of Washington, a human rights nightmare and example  
of the amorphous and survivalist qualities of the Latin American  
right. In the April 20th presidential elections, Blanca Ovelar and  
Lino Oviedo, two representatives of Paraguay’s old right will come  
head to head with Fernando Lugo, a new face, and possibly a new  
beginning for the Paraguayan left.

Former Education Minister Blanca Ovelar, is carrying the torch of the  
60-year rule of the Colorado, or Red Party, and General Lino Oviedo-  
nicknamed the “Bonsai horseman” for his short stature - is an ex- 
Colorado Party member himself, and until recently was serving prison  
time for an attempted coup. Alternately called “the Bishop of the  
Poor” by his supporters, and “the Red Bishop” by his right-wing  
opponents, Lugo is leading in the polls, and may do the same in the  
elections - if he can out maneuver the gargantuan resources and  
corrupt politics of his opponents.

Lugo: The Bishop of the Poor

Credit: El Pais
Lugo Waxes Patriotic at a Rally
Fernando Armindo Lugo Méndez was born in 1951. As a young man, he  
taught in a rural school district which, according to reporter Nick  
Andrews at Open Democracy, “was so remote that he was able to escape  
the usual rule that teachers had to be members of the Colorado  
Party.”[1] In 1977, Lugo was ordained as a Catholic priest, and worked  
as a missionary in indigenous communities in Ecuador until 1982. He  
then spent 10 years studying at the Vatican, at which time he  
appointed head of the Divine Word order in Paraguay. In 1994 he became  
the Bishop of the Paraguayan department of San Pedro. Though Lugo was  
frequently away from Paraguay, he did not avoid the repercussions of  
the Alfredo Stroessner dictatorship and its conservative influence. In  
fact, three of Lugo’s brothers were exiled and the conservative  
Catholic hierarchy pressured him to resign as bishop due to his  
support for landless families’ settlements on large estates owned by  
absent elites.

However, Lugo’s resignation as bishop also allowed him to realize his  
ambitions as a presidential contender. On December 25, 2006, Lugo  
announced he would run for president in the 2008 contest. As a  
candidate, he is riding the waves of discontent of a population that’s  
tired of Paraguayan business as usual. After leading a march and rally  
in early 2006 protesting the civil rights abuses committed by  
president Duarte Frutos, his popularity rose.

At first, Lugo’s candidacy was impeded by the fact that the Vatican  
did not accept his resignation, which allowed Colorado party members  
to claim that his candidacy would be unconstitutional, as clergy  
members can’t hold political office in Paraguay. However, a legal team  
soon established that this was not the case, and he has become "a  
disturbingly credible threat to the Colorados."[2]

On September 17, 2007 Lugo created a seven party opposition coalition  
called the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC), and on October 31,  
2007, he registered himself as a presidential candidate of the  
Christian Democrat Party (PDC) to participate in the primaries of the  
opposition group which is a part of the APC.[3] Senator Juan Ramirez  
Montalbetti, a Lugo supporter, has said that the election day of April  
20, 2008 will be approached as "a day of war" to protect votes in the  
face the maneuvers in which “officialist” Colorados are experts.[4]

The Paraguayan Right

The current political landscape of the Paraguayan right is shaped  
significantly by the 35-year dictatorial rule of General Alfredo  
Stroessner, a mustachioed man described by Graham Greene as looking  
like “the amiable well-fed host of a Bavarian bierstube,” who  
maintained power through a mixture of brutal repression, corruption  
and cronyism. After 61 years, the Colorado Party, which Stroessner was  
a part of, has had the longest continuous run in power of any  
political party in the world.[5]

Stroessner’s reign dominated the second half of the last century in  
Paraguay, and casts a dark shadow into this one. Originally elected in  
1954 to fill a vacancy, Stroessner was “re-elected” seven times  
through a state-of-siege law in the constitution and with the aid of  
the military and the Colorado Party. The Colorado Party had already  
ruled Paraguay from 1947 until 1962, as a one-Party state in which all  
other political parties were illegal.[6] It also served in tandem as  
one of the "twin pillars" supporting the Stroessner regime (the other  
pillar being the military).[7] Stroessner collaborated with Chilean  
dictator Augusto Pinochet and the military junta in Argentina to  
orchestrate a regional crackdown on political opponents through a  
mixture of kidnapping, torture and murder. In 1989, the transition to  
democracy pushed the hard-line Stronistas out of power. Though a new  
constitution created in 1992 established a democracy and new legal  
protections of rights, the Colorado Party has continued its rule over  
Paraguay.

The Colorado Party’s vast system of clientelism – offering public jobs  
to people to gain political support – is entirely reliant on state  
programs and public services. It is effective because of the country’s  
high unemployment rate: one of citizens’ few prospects for employment  
is through the Colorado Party, whether in such positions as a road  
construction worker, teacher or mayor. Though many citizens view the  
Party as corrupt and ineffective, supporting it often means receiving  
a salary. The Colorado Party employs some 200,000 people, 95% of whom  
are members of the Party.[8]

Credit: ABC Color[[This photo was posted on the national newspaper ABC  
Color's website by Anibal Caballero. He inserted a comic caption in  
which Ovelar asks Nicanor Duarte "Dude, Nica, lend me your  
presidential pen, I can't wait to practice my signature with it, you  
know, for later on." Duarte replies "I guess I dropped it, dude,  
hmmm . . . I can't find it. Too bad."]]


Yet another Colorado Party Candidate, Nicanor Duarte Frutos was  
elected president in 2003. The current leader of the Colorado Party is  
president Nicanor Duarte Frutos, who joined the Colorado Party when he  
was just 14.[9] Duarte, a fiery, gravel-voiced public speaker who  
styled himself a populist, grassroots politician, campaigned in 2003  
on promises to fight crime and corruption and to create public works  
jobs. However, during his presidency, rising crime and high-profile  
kidnappings have drawn criticism.

In the middle of the current “pink tide” of Latin American populist  
governments, Frutos allied himself with the United States during the  
majority of his presidency. According to the Council on Hemispheric  
Affairs, Washington, with its nightmares of a communist haven replaced  
by fears of terrorist funding, has lavished Paraguay with  
democratization projects (read military training), which have helped  
keep “the Brazilian military at bay while effectively intimidating the  
armed peasant groups into submission.” Renewed cooperation has been  
felicitous for the security self-interests of both parties, and  
promises to continue.  He signed an energy agreement with Chavez, and  
supports the Bank of the South, the project for economic integration  
among South American nations as pushed by Chavez.[10] Duarte has made  
populist gestures publicly, notably condemning “lawless capitalism” in  
a UNESCO assembly.[11]

Recently, Duarte has cooled his relations with Washington and warmed  
up to Caracas – if for no other reason that, in Latin America, it’s  
popular to do so.

The Red Queen and the Bonsai Horseman

In the current electoral field for the presidential election, Lugo’s  
opposition is represented by the massive state and social apparatus of  
the Colorado Party, as well as newer, right-wing opposition parties.

Ironically, the shift in economy from public works and government  
spending to the booming agricultural export business has eroded some  
support for the Colorado Party. The newly strengthened left and the  
emergent new right are evidence that, according to political analyst  
Milda Rivola, “Economic times have changed. . . The idea of the state  
as the country's biggest employer no longer works," she said.[12] That  
is exactly where the interests that form the new right come into play.

Credit: El Commercial
Oviedo in his days as a general
“Bonsai horseman” General Lino Oviedo, a former presidential hopeful  
is another representative of the old right. Ironically, Oviedo  
originally rose to political fame in Paraguay as an upholder of  
democratic values by participating in the uprising that overthrew  
Stroessner. Yet after Oviedo disobeyed a presidential order to step  
down as commander of the army in April of 1996, he began to resemble  
the militaristic caudillo of the past.

Oviedo, who left the Colorado Party in 2005, was until recently,  
exiled for his participation in a foiled coup in 1996. Still popular  
however, Oviedo continues to be a presidential contender, and was  
pardoned for his coup attempt on October 30, 2007. This brought his  
National Union of Ethical Citizens Party (UNACE) back in to the fray  
with all the symbolism of a martyred military hero it can muster.[13]

Supported most loyally by extremely rich and extremely poor  
constituents, Oviedo has campaigned stridently against gays and,  
according to Uruguayan political analyst Raul Zibechi, “threatens to  
defeat his opponents with ‘vote-shots,’ with the same impetus he used  
in 1989 to defeat dictator Alfredo Stroessner with ‘gunshots.’”[14]

Oviedo is currently running as a lone-wolf, in contrast to the  
momentum of alliances that supported Lugo as a candidate. Oviedo  
recently said, “I just propose a government program consensus  
regardless of alliance…coalition or whatever.” Very much the victim of  
this earlier comment, he promotes “a judicial guarantee of public  
order,” and says that whoever wants to rule alone will be boycotted.  
When asked what country model Paraguay must follow, Oviedo said with  
confident ambivalence, "Neither Right nor Left nor center, but  
progress. . . Neither neoliberal nor populist, communist, nor  
authoritarian, but a legal and democratic government, where neither  
the rich benefit off the deterioration of the poor, nor the poor  
benefit off the deterioration of the rich.” He also promises a new  
constitution, and to restructure the state government.[15]


Credit: Reuters
Oviedo is greeted by supporters as he is released from prison in 2007
New candidates have also entered the arena. In lieu of Duarte’s  
inability to run, Blanca Ovelar, a former minister of education, is  
playing a new populist “Social Democrat” face of the Colorado Party.  
Ovelar, who speaks in a smooth professorial tone, proposes to use  
educational reform to pull the country out of poverty. At a campaign  
rally for Colorado Party presidential candidate Blanca Ovelar,  
journalist Charles Lane met Colorado supporters wearing the signature  
red shirts. One supporter said, “Our parents were Coloradoans, I was  
born Colorado, and I will die Colorado.” Ovelar’s loyalty to Duarte  
and the party have negatively affected her popularity.[16] When asked  
if they were paid directly by the party, the Coloradoans said no, but  
admitted to having other benefits. “I was twice elected mayor and my  
wife has a job with the government,” one responded. Elsewhere another  
supporter told the journalist that the fastest route to the hospital  
is through the Colorado Party.[17]

In Paraguay, women make up 49.6 percent of the population, yet only 10  
percent of congressional seats are held by women. Women were given the  
right to vote in 1961, but the first woman to hold the position of  
minister was appointed in 1989, and only 10 percent of the cabinet is  
presently made up of women, one of the smallest percentages in Latin  
America.[18] While Ovelar postures herself as “the first woman  
president of Paraguay, breaking with the ‘machista’ tradition," her  
appeal doesn’t seem to resonate with Paraguayan women.

Credit: Reuters
Ovelar with Duarte: Taking Instructions?
Angélica Cano, of Parlamento Mujer, a political advocacy forum for  
women, told IPS News that the Colorado Party is simply using Ovelar’s  
gender as political capital: “When a political project has run out of  
male representatives that can sustain it, it calls in a woman to  
legitimize a model that is already obsolete.” According to Maggy  
Balbuena, of the rural womens’ organization CONAMURI, Ovelar “actually  
represents . . . 60 years of domination by the Colorado Party, 60  
years of poverty and injustice. I think it would be very hard for her  
to reverse that long history,” Balbuena told IPS News, “and I don’t  
think she can change it all just because she’s a woman.”

Former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, on the other hand, renounced  
his post to run as a closer ally to Washington and the agricultural  
industry, and to push more neoliberal plans.[19] Castiglioni, who lost  
the Colorado Party primary, as well as Ovelar, represent the new right  
wing of the Colorado Party. According to Paraguayan sociologist Tomas  
Palau, in spite of the differences between the parties of the new  
right, “their goal is to continue operating with impunity and making  
huge profits." A continuation of right-wing rule in any form is likely  
to be disastrous for the country’s human rights, environment and over  
half of Paraguayans who live under the poverty line.[20]

Meanwhile, the left’s main option in the midst of this heavily right- 
wing election season is Fernando Lugo. Lugo represents a wide  
coalition of opposition forces whose interests probably don’t coincide  
past the rejection of Colorado rule. Neither experienced nor  
completely radical, Palau says Lugo is "more befuddled than a yuppie  
in the middle of the jungle."

The New Right and Current Popular Struggles in Paraguay

As the years passed since the Stroessner era, new interests effecting  
electoral politics have pushed their way into the Paraguayan  
landscape. According to Palau, powerful interests in Paraguay in can  
be summarized into four groups: 1) The oligarchy (soy growers and  
cattle ranchers who depend on paramilitaries to allow them to expand),  
2) The narco-traffickers who pay off politicians, 3) The lumpen  
business class that relies on international trade and black market  
goods,[21] and 4) the transnational corporations that produce soy,  
cotton and sugar. The parties are simple transmitters of those  
interests.[22] In turn, these sectors create non-governmental interest  
groups that can pressure conservative sectors likely to do them  
favors. While non-governmental groups don’t necessarily present  
candidates, they are vocal proponents of the parties they support.

On the other hand, in the past twenty years, campesino organizations  
including the Mesa Co-ordinadora Nacional de Organizaciones Campesinas  
(MCNOC) and the Federación Nacional Campesina (FNC) have increased  
demands for reform of the corrupt party favors of the Stroessner  
regimes’ “land reform.” As Paraguayan farmers have found themselves  
increasingly confronted by Brazilian farmers buying up land for  
industrial agriculture and speculation, the movement has become more  
radical.[23]

The fastest growing sector of the sources of power, and the one that  
has been and will likely continue to be at the forefront of national  
and international political and business interests and social conflict  
in the coming years is the agrofuel industry. This "gold rush" - so- 
called by the chief executive of Cargill - is sweeping over the once  
diverse jungles and small farms of eastern Paraguay like a vast and  
toxic genetically modified tsunami.

Photograph from the San Pedro Departmental Committee of in Defense of  
Sovereignty and Life.
Farmers protest soy industry fumigations
Paraguay is the world's fourth largest exporter of soybeans, and soy  
production has increased exponentially in recent years, reaching a  
record 6.5m tons in 2006-2007, due to rising demand worldwide for meat  
and cattle feed, as well as the booming agrofuels (also known as  
biodiesel) industry. As multinational agro-producers gain more and  
more stake in the production of soy, corn, wheat, sunflower and  
rapeseed in Paraguay, they too look to both the old and the new right  
to protect their land, production and trade interests.

Managing this gargantuan agro-industry in Latin America are  
transnational seed and agro-chemical companies including Monsanto,  
Pioneer, Syngenta, Dupont, Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and  
Bunge. International financial institutions and development banks have  
promoted and bankrolled the agro-export of monoculture crops. The  
profits have united political and corporate entities from Brazil, the  
US and Paraguay, and increased the importance of Paraguay's  
cooperation with international business.

In Paraguay especially, the expansion of the soy industry has occurred  
in tandem with violent oppression of small farmers and indigenous  
communities who occupy the vast land holdings of the wealthy. Most  
rural Paraguayans cultivate diverse subsistence crops on small plots  
of ten to twenty hectares, but do not have titles to their land or  
receive assistance from the state.[24] The Colorado Party  
administration has represented the soy growers in this conflict by  
using the police and judicial system to punish campesino leaders. To  
this effect, protests have been criminalized, and campesino leaders  
have been linked to delinquency, kidnappings and a supposed guerilla  
movement linked to the Colombian FARC.[25] A report compiled by the  
Paraguayan-based human rights organization SERPAJ concluded “that with  
public forces in its hands, the alliance of the Public Prosecutor, and  
the Supreme Court as a guarantee of impunity, has created a campaign  
of massive repression of the campesino sector, in order to facilitate  
and guarantee the amplification of the border of genetically modified  
soy.”[26]

Since the 1980s, national military and paramilitary groups connected  
to large agribusinesses and landowners have evicted almost 100,000  
small farmers from their homes and fields and forced the relocation of  
countless indigenous communities in favor of soy fields. More than 100  
campesino leaders have been assassinated; only one of the cases was  
investigated, resulting in the conviction of the assassin. In the same  
period, more than 2,000 others have faced trumped-up charges for their  
objections to the industry.

The vast majority of Paraguayan farmers, however, have been poisoned  
off their land either intentionally or as a side effect of the more  
than 24 million liters of hazardous pesticides dumped by soy  
cultivation in Paraguay every year. When farmers saw their animals  
die, crops withering, families sickening and wells contaminated, most  
packed up and moved to the city.[27]

The devastation caused by agro-industries created some of the most  
grave human rights violations since Stroessner’s reign. Press reports  
say that when crops are fumigated "school classes are often cancelled  
on days of crop spraying on the field twenty meters away because the  
children faint from the smell." Since 2002, the deaths of five small  
children in rural areas have been documented.[28]

A report produced by the Committee of Economic, Social and Cultural  
Rights of the United Nations stated that “the expansion of the  
cultivation of soy has brought with it the indiscriminate use of toxic  
pesticides, provoking death and sickness in children and adults,  
contamination of water, disappearance of ecosystems and damage to the  
traditional nutritional resources of the communities.”[29] A social  
investigation carried out last year found that, in the four  
departments where soy production is the highest, 78% of families in  
rural communities near soy fields showed a health problem caused by  
the frequent crop spraying in the soy fields, 63% of which was due to  
contaminated water.[30]

As opposition to the soy industry builds among farmers and human  
rights groups, presidential candidates are posturing themselves either  
against soy expansion or in favor of it. Lugo’s promise of land reform  
addresses this issue.[31] Playing up the populist rhetoric of Colorado  
Party, presidential candidate Blanca Ovelar has said that as president  
she will change agro-legislation and fight against the development of  
a “soy fatherland.”[32] At the same time, the majority of Lugo’s base  
is made up of farmers who have been hurt by the industrial soy  
companies.

As the election nears, the Duarte administration has made particularly  
vicious attacks on the political rights of social organizations. In  
February and March of 2008, three candidates of the Patriotic  
Socialist Alliance Party were arrested for visiting land occupied by  
campesinos, a political leader of the Tekojoja Popular Movement was  
assassinated under unclear circumstances, and the media published  
articles about supposed guerrilla connections to two campesino  
organizations with candidates in the upcoming elections.[33] According  
to a recent article in LaSojaMata.org written by social analysts based  
in Paraguay, “As the election nears, greater acts of violence and  
criminalization are generated against critical sectors and the  
opposition.”[34]

On Wednesday, April 9, a drive by shooting seriously injured radio  
commentator Alfredo Avalos, and killed his partner, Silvana Rodríguez. 
[35] Avalos is a leader in the leftist movement Tekojoja, which is  
part of the coalition supporting Lugo. The attack took place in the  
town Curuguaty in the Canindeyúby state which is 250km northeast of  
the capital, Asunción. Journalist Dawn Paley [36] wrote that the  
Paraguayan news outlet Jaku'éke [37] explained "death threats to the  
Alliance Campaign are being followed through." Lugo told Reuters [38]  
that this violence was "in keeping with the fear campaign led by those  
who are afraid of losing power." Paley reported that Carrillo Iramain,  
an organizer in Canindeyúby, said "there are constant telephone  
messages, indirect messages and direct threats happening in these  
final days [before the elections]. This is an area where fear rules."  
According to Reuters, this is the second politically motivated murder  
of a Tekojoja organizer in two months.[39]

Lugo’s Proposals Rattle Colorado Rule

Image
Itaipu Dam
Lugo has recently promised to implement land reform, fight corruption  
and the conservative forces of the Colorado Party.[40] The  
presidential contender has also pledged to renegotiate the treaty of  
Itaipu, the biggest plant for hydroelectric power in the world,  
producing 20% of Brazil’s electricity. This renegotiation plan would  
secure more of the massive financial and electric bounty of this  
project for Paraguay rather than primarily benefiting Brazil. If  
Brazil refuses to negotiate for better terms for Paraguay, Lugo has  
promised to take the case to the International Court of Justice.  
Analyst Raul Zibechi points out that though Lugo may win the  
presidency, his political bloc may gain only a minority in Congress  
with the Colorado Party having the majority.[41]

Lugo has also campaigned on a platform that allies itself with the  
poor majority of the country. He was quoted in Open Democracy as  
saying, "There are too many differences between the small group of 500  
families who live with a first-world standard of living while the  
great majority live in a poverty that borders on misery." Indeed, his  
alliances with the Catholic Church may be a key to broad support as  
the institution is viewed as clean of the rampant corruption in the  
country.[42]

He also aligns himself closer to leftist presidents like Hugo Chavez  
and Evo Morales than his opponents, and is more anti-imperialist at  
least in his rhetoric. The Council on Hemispheric Affairs quoted Lugo  
as saying, “Paraguay is feeling the new winds growing across the  
region.”[43] Similarly, author Richard Gott points out that a victory  
for Lugo in Paraguay, “will signal that the new mood in Latin America  
is not just the creation of a competent economist in Ecuador, a  
charismatic colonel in Venezuela, or a couple of union leaders in  
Brazil and Bolivia, but the result of a heartfelt and deep-rooted  
desire for change.”[44]

On March 24, Lugo told Paraguayan newspaper ABC Color that as  
president he would be against a free trade agreement with the US: "I  
would rather try to keep deepening regional integration through  
adhesion and work with the South Common Market (MERCOSUR)." He also  
advocated for agrarian reform, saying, "Every Paraguayan citizen has  
the right to be settled on his own land."

Lugo: A Step in the Right Direction

While Fernando Lugo is the only candidate that represents change from  
the Colorado regime, for many Paraguayans he is at most a step in the  
right direction, and does not represent a new face in the pantheon of  
leftist leaders being elected across the continent. As a centrist,  
Lugo finds himself in the perhaps uncomfortable position of being a  
radical alternative to the 60 year Colorado rule. Lugo is evidence  
that to be considered a “leftist” in Paraguay only requires having  
political views that are “less right.”

Though many see Lugo as someone who has experience with rural social  
conflicts and connections with the campesino movement, it would be a  
mistake to see him (as many on the right do) as “the red bishop,” a  
radical heir to the liberation theology movement. In fact, when  
Oviedo’s popularity was on the rise last September, Lugo even said he  
could work with Oviedo as a vice president, or vice versa.

Image
Lugo at a Rally
Lugo has been careful to distance himself from leaders who have used  
natural resources to fund new government programs. “Paraguay,” he says  
“ . . . cannot be like Venezuela because it has no oil. Nor can it be  
like Bolivia because it has no natural gas and it can’t be like Chile  
because it has no copper.” Pragmatic as his assessment may be, Lugo  
doesn’t seem to think nor desire that Paraguay’s government can be  
like that of these countries either. Lugo has taken pains to maintain  
a friendly distance from Caracas, and has not used anti-Washington  
rhetoric to stir up his supporters. Though Lugo praised the social  
aspect of Chavez’s government, he criticized the “strong dose of  
statism, totally at the service of one person . . . which is dangerous  
for a real democracy.”

In terms of economic changes, Lugo seems unlikely to cause too many  
ripples. In fact, in a distinctly Paraguayan fashion, caving in to  
Washington’s pressure to privatize resources and public services could  
be in Lugo's, and the new right’s, agenda. The clientilism of the  
Colorado Party relies almost entirely on the state, and is therefore  
in opposition to neoliberal policies favoring corporate control of  
services. Unlike other countries in the region where neoliberalism has  
flourished, many Paraguayan roads, water and electricity systems  
remain under state control. Right-wing proponents of neoliberalism  
advocate corporate control of public services and further deregulation  
of the economy. This large, cumbersome political apparatus could be  
the Colorado Party’s downfall, as splits within threaten to kill the  
old, statist right.[45]

However, Lugo has also seen no conflict in Chilean president Michelle  
Bachelet’s Socialist government signing a free-trade agreement with  
the United States. During a visit to Washington on June 18, 2007 Lugo  
gave a speech at George Washington University titled “Political  
Alternatives to the World’s Longest Ruling Party.” The Council on  
Hemispheric Affairs reported that “What Lugo seems to be saying is  
that he wants access to the U.S. market, as well as to be a  
beneficiary of Chávez’s now well known generosity.”

On the other hand, if Lugo does win, there is no guarantee that he  
would be able to make any changes. If he wins the April 20 election,  
he will not take office until August; plenty of time for the defeated  
Colorados to strategize on how to use their likely congressional  
majority to their benefit. This would allow plenty of time, too, for  
Lugo’s aggregate political alliance of socialists, farmer and  
indigenous groups, liberals and ex-Colorados to crumble into in- 
fighting.

Count Down to the Election

An April 9th election poll published in the Paraguayan newspaper ABC  
Color, and conducted by First Análisis y Estudios, showed that Lugo is  
in the lead with 33.6% support of those polled. Oviedo came in second  
with 27.4%, Blance Ovelar in third with 24.6%. Current president  
Nicanor Duarte won the 2003 election with 37.1% of the votes.[46]

As Lugo leads in the polls right now, the Colorado Party is deeply  
worried. If the opposition wins, Duarte has said he believes the  
Coloradoans will be “chased down as the Jews were in the time of  
Hitler,” which is ironic in light of the Colorado Party’s alliance  
with the axis during World War II. As political analyst Marcelo Lacchi  
puts it, "For the first time in 20 years, the Colorados are facing the  
possibility of losing and they're worried." The party is abysmally  
divided between Oviedo, Ovelar and even Lugo with the election rapidly  
approaching. Yet, Lacchi reminds us, similar divisions were in place  
in the 1998 elections, and the results were the re-unification of the  
party and a Colorado win. "There is still a large part of Colorado  
voters who haven't been captivated and mobilised," he said.[47]

The Colorado Party has never lost a presidential election, and once  
the usual tools of employment, bribes and threats are in place, things  
could look very different. However, writes Zibechi, if the Colorado  
Party apparatus can’t be set in motion, it’s possible that this  
election could be different. He points out that “the crisis within the  
Party, the enormous unpopularity of Duarte, and the appearance on the  
scene of a center-left candidate who can break the eternal two-party  
split between the Red and the Liberal Parties” as three reasons to  
expect the unexpected in this historic election.[48]

***

April Howard is a journalist, translator, and adjunct lecturer of  
Latin American studies at the State University of New York,  
Plattsburgh. Benjamin Dangl is the author of The Price of Fire:  
Resource Wars and Social Movements in Bolivia (AK Press, 2007) and the  
editor of TowardFreedom.com, a progressive perspective on world  
events. Both are editors at UpsideDownWorld.org, a Web site on  
activism and politics in Latin America.

Also see “New Versus Old Right in Paraguay’s Elections”by the same  
authors in the January/February issue of NACLA Report on the Americas.

Notes

[1]. Nickson, Andrew. “Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado  
machine.” Open Democracy (02-28-2008).

[2]. Schaeffer, Jenna. “Is Paraguay Set to be the Next Latin American  
Country to Lean to the Left?” Council on Hemispheric Affairs  
(06-29-2007).

[3]. “Lugo se postula por la Democracia Cristiana” ABC Color.

[4]. “Opposition Opens Space for Debate in Paraguay.” Prensa Latina.  
(11-07-08).

[5]. Gimlette, John. At The Tomb of the Inflatable Pig. Knopf  
(01-06-2004)

[6]. “Paraguay: Opposition Parties.” Library of Congress Studies.  
(1988).

[7]. “The Twin Pillars of the Stroessner Regime.” Library of Congress  
Studies (1988).

[8]. Zibechi, Raúl. “Paraguay's Hour of Change.” IRC Americas Program.  
(09-24-2007).

[9]. “Country Profile: Paraguay.” BBC  (03-01-2008).

[10]. Stefanoni, Pablo. “¿Fin de época en Paraguay?: Entre la  
esperanza y el escepticismo.” Yacaré (06-2007).

[11]. “Nicanor condena el “capitalismo desaforado” en asamblea de  
UNESCO.” ABC Color.

[12]. “Paraguay rulers face election fight.” www.tvnz.co.nz/,  
(3-29-2008).

[13]. Plummer, Robert, “Profile: Lino Oviedo”, BBC News, (6-28-2004)

[14]. Zibechi, Raúl. “Paraguay: Elections, Yellow Fever, and a  
Meddling Ambassador.” IRC Americas Program (3-13-2008)

[15]. Lino Oviedo Website and ABC Color.

[16]. Zibechi, Raúl. “Paraguay: Elections, Yellow Fever, and a  
Meddling Ambassador.” IRC Americas Program (3-13-2008)

[17]. Lane, Charles. “I was born Colorado, and I will die Colorado.”  
Pulitzer Center, The Soy Bean Wars, (8-17-2007)

[18]. Vargas, David. “Elections-Paraguay: Women Unimpressed by Female  
Candidate.” IPS News, (4-10-2008)

[19]. Stefanoni, Pablo. “¿Fin de época en Paraguay?: Entre la  
esperanza y el escepticismo.” Yacaré (06-2007).

[20]. Machain, Andrea “Paraguay president full of promises.” BBC News,  
(8-16-2003)

[21]. Zibechi, Raúl. “Paraguay's Hour of Change.” IRC Americas  
Program. (09-24-2007).

[22]. Interview with Tomas Palau

[23]. Nickson, Andrew. “Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado  
machine.” Open Democracy (02-28-2008).

[24]. Nickson, Andrew. “Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado  
machine.” Open Democracy (02-28-2008).

[25]. Marco Castillo, Regina Kretschmer, Javiera Rulli, Gaby  
Schwartzmann. “Paraguay: Campesino Leader Charged For Confronting Crop  
Spraying.” LaSojamata.org, (3-27-2008)

[26]. Misión internacional de observación al Paraguay, Informe 2006,  
p. 6; SERPAJ Paraguay.

[27]. Howard, April and Dangl, Benjamin“The Multinational Beanfield  
War: Soy cultivation spells doom for Paraguayan campesinos.” In These  
Times, (4-12-2007)

[28]. Nickson, Andrew. “Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado  
machine.” Open Democracy (02-28-2008).

[29]. Marco Castillo, Regina Kretschmer, Javiera Rulli, Gaby  
Schwartzmann. “Paraguay: Campesino Leader Charged For Confronting Crop  
Spraying.” LaSojamata.org, (3-27-2008)

[30]. Interview with Tomas Palau

[31]. “Paraguay: Land Reform for Sure, Says Lugo.” Prensa Latina,  
(3-27-2008)

[32]. “Contra la patria sojera.” ABC Color, (4-10-2008)

[33]. Marco Castillo, Regina Kretschmer, Javiera Rulli, Gaby  
Schwartzmann. “Paraguay: Campesino Leader Charged For Confronting Crop  
Spraying.” LaSojamata.org, (3-27-2008)

[34]. Marco Castillo, Regina Kretschmer, Javiera Rulli, Gaby  
Schwartzmann. “Paraguay: Campesino Leader Charged For Confronting Crop  
Spraying.” LaSojamata.org, (3-27-2008)

[35]. “Radio commentator seriously injured in shooting attack 12 days  
before elections.” Reporters Without Borders, (4-10-2008)

[36]. Paley, Dawn. “Ni una muerte más! Elections in Paraguay.” The  
Dominion. (4-9-2008)

[37]. Paley, Dawn. “Ni una muerte más! Elections in Paraguay.” The  
Dominion. (4-9-2008) and http://www.jakueke.com/articulo.php?ID=6976

[38]. “Attack on activist stirs fear before Paraguay vote.” Reuters.  
(4-9-2008)

[39]. “Se eleva alarma por violencia electoral en Paraguay.” Reuters.  
(4-9-2008)

[40]. “Paraguay: Land Reform for Sure, Says Lugo.” Prensa Latina,  
(3-27-2008)

[41]. Zibechi, Raúl. “Paraguay: Elections, Yellow Fever, and a  
Meddling Ambassador.” IRC Americas Program (3-13-2008)

[42]. Nickson, Andrew. “Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado  
machine.” Open Democracy (02-28-2008).

[43]. Schaeffer, Jenna. “Is Paraguay Set to be the Next Latin American  
Country to Lean to the Left?” Council on Hemispheric Affairs  
(06-29-2007).

[44]. Gott, Richard. “Rise of the Red Bishop.” The Guardian. (4-10-2008)

[45]. Based on phone interview with Marcos Castillo

[46]. “Former Bishop Lugo Still Ahead in Paraguay.” Angus Reid Global  
Monitor. (4-9-2008)

[47]. “Paraguay rulers face election fight.” www.tvnz.co.nz/,  
(3-29-2008).

[48]. Zibechi, Raúl. “Paraguay: Elections, Yellow Fever, and a  
Meddling Ambassador.” IRC Americas Program (3-13-2008)