[R-G] Islamists in Somalia and World Oil Transit Chokepoints

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

The empire enjoyed a brief success in Somalia by backing the Ethiopian
intervention in the country which routed the Islamic Courts Union in
December 2006.  It took nearly two years, but the US-Ethiopian backed
"transitional government" in Somalia may be approaching its end:
Islamists in Somalia have been taking back town after town, village
after village, and they may recapture Mogadishu soon.

Somalia is strategically located close to Bab al Mandab, one of the
world oil transit chokepoints, and Eritrea, half of whose population
are Muslims and whose government is backing the Somali Islamists, is
right on the Gate:
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Full.html>.
 The Islamic Republic of Iran, on the opposite end of the MENA region,
stands next to the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit
chokepoints in the world.

The rest of the chokepoints are close to Turkey (the Turkish Straits),
Malaysia and Indonesia (the Strait of Malacca), Egypt (the Suez
Canal), and Panama (the Panama Canal).  Not only do Muslims sit on the
world's largest known oil reserves; but also nearly all oil transit
chokepoints are located in the predominantly Islamic region.

Say, the Islamic Republic of Iran withstands the US-led sanctions; the
Islamists regain power in Somalia; the Muslim Brotherhood, in
coalition with liberals and socialists, put an end to the Mubarak
dynasty in Egypt, the second largest recipient of US aid after Israel.
 Now, _that_ will already begin to redraw the political geography of
oil considerably.

Then, suppose that Hizballah and its communist and Christian allies
continue to check the pro-Americans in Lebanon, the Sadrist movement
grows and begins to nationalize itself, broadening its appeal across
ethno-linguistic-confessional divides, and the Assad government holds
its ground in Syria; Hamas refuses to surrender in Palestine; the AKP
manages to fend off the military, continuing to play the role that
Brazil's Lulda government does in Latin America (Brazil takes the
middle course between the empire and Venezuela, and Turkey, between
the empire and Iran); the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger
Delta, which has taken down "about 10 percent" of Nigeria's daily oil
production (cf.
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/20/business/worldbusiness/20oil.html>),
becomes more powerful in the fifth largest exporter of oil to the
United States that supplies 11% of US oil imports (cf.
<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2836.htm>); etc.

Very interesting, isn't it?  These states, parties, and movements in
Asia and Africa are not as coherent as those found in Latin America.
Left-wing governments in Latin America differ from one another
qualitatively and quantitatively, but all speak what sound like
recognizable languages of the socialist and social democratic Left
that sound familiar to Western leftist ears (especially if Western
leftists tune out strains of populism, Peronism, indigenism,
liberation theology, etc.); whereas the aforementioned Islamic
currents in Asia and Africa, spanning a greater variety of cultures,
are more cacophonous than Latin leftist currents, and their ideologies
and practices are ones that are alien to most Western leftists, which
makes it very difficult to get any large, militant Western opposition
to the empire's plan against them .  And yet, the aforementioned
Islamic currents hold the key to politics in the areas that are
crucially important to the Great Game of the 21st Century, a question
of energy supplies as China and India industrialize.  Latin
socialists, who have done the right thing regarding Iran under the
Ahmadinejad administration, would do well to survey the rest of the
Islamic currents as well and see what they can make of them.

<http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gTPUi5t4mduc_7EdSGaw_N6y7pLQ>
Islamists seize Somali town after fighting: witnesses

1 hour ago

MOGADISHU (AFP) — Islamists militants Sunday took control of a Somali
trading post after heavy fighting that saw government forces escape
into the countryside, an official and witnesses said.

The Islamists wrested control of Balad town, 30 kilometres (19 miles)
north of the capital Mogadishu, said Mohamed Abshir, a government
official.

"They took control of the town forcefully after fighting with
government forces. There were casualities but I do not know how many,"
he told AFP by phone.

Several witnesses confirmed the takeover of the post, which the
Islamists lost when Ethiopian forces entered the country to help
bolster the government late 2006.

"There was heavy fighting in Balad today," said Balad resident Ugas Mohamed.

"I saw heavily-armed Islamist fighters in the town chanting "Allahu
Akbar" -- God is Great. They took control of the town and the
government forces fled to the countryside," he added.

Over the past year, the insurgents have attacked government targets
after finally being ousted from the southern and central regions by
Ethiopian-backed Somali troops in early 2007.

The guerrilla fighting has killed thousands and forced hundreds of
thousands to flee mainly from Mogadishu, which has been the epicentre
of the clashes.

Somalia has lacked an effective government since the 1991 ousting of
dictator Mohamed Siad Barre paved the way for factional clashes that
have defied numerous bids to restore stability.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/world/africa/01somalia.html>
April 1, 2008
Somali Town Falls to Insurgent Raid
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

NAIROBI, Kenya — Islamist insurgents overpowered Somali government
troops on Monday, seizing a strategic town and continuing their steady
march across the country.

According to witnesses, several truckloads of Islamist fighters
stormed Bulo Burti, a town north of the capital, Mogadishu, and killed
eight government soldiers. Government troops then fled, and residents
said government offices, weapons depots and several armed trucks fell
into the hands of the Islamists.

"Very quickly, they took over," said Islow Ahmed, who owns a small
general store in Bulo Burti, which is situated along one of the major
north-south trading routes in Somalia. "We all want peace. But now
we're all afraid."

Ever since it took over the capital in late 2006, Somalia's
transitional government has been struggling to suppress an Islamist
insurgency. Thousands of Ethiopian troops helped install the
transitional government in Mogadishu and oust an Islamist
administration that had controlled the city for six months.

But the Islamists are fighting back, gaining ground and recruits, and
the transitional government seems increasingly on its heels.

Government officials say they desperately need help to defeat the
Islamists, who the government says are getting weapons and money from
Arab countries. The government has pleaded for the United Nations to
send peacekeepers, but it has so far seemed reluctant to do so.

In recent weeks, the Islamists have routed government troops in
several towns, though their typical strategy is to inflict losses,
snatch weapons and then melt back into the bush. It was unclear on
Monday whether Bulo Burti was one of the first towns the insurgents
had seized — and held. Some residents said the Islamists stayed after
the fighting, retaining control over the roads leading in and out of
town. But government officials said the insurgents had eventually
withdrawn.

The Islamists seem to have a lot of local support in Bulo Burti. In
the fall of 2006, the town's clerics threatened to behead anyone who
did not pray five times a day.

But Abdi Awaleh Jama, an ambassador at large for the government,
contended that the loss was not a result of an organized Islamist
movement, but rather an extension of the clan fighting that has
plagued Somalia for the past 17 years since the central government
collapsed.

"It's a flea biting," he said. "These are clan militias. They use the
name Islamists to get attention."

The Islamists have often teamed up with clan militias, especially
those who have their own longstanding grievances against the
government. The Islamists came to power in 2006 by uniting clan
militias and driving away the warlords who had been preying upon the
population.

Mohammed Ibrahim contributed reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/world/africa/30somalia.html>
March 30, 2008
At Least 10 Killed as Somali Troops Shell a Market Used as an Insurgent Base
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

NAIROBI, Kenya — At least 10 people were killed in Mogadishu,
Somalia's chaotic capital, on Saturday afternoon after government
troops shelled a market area known to be an insurgent hide-out.

According to witnesses, the fighting started when insurgents fired
mortars at Villa Somalia, the presidential palace and seat of the
transitional government. At the time, Somalia's president, Abdullahi
Yusuf, was meeting with Ethiopia's foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin. It
was not clear if any government officials or Ethiopian troops, who are
helping guard the palace, were hit.

The government and Ethiopian forces then responded, sending a barrage
of mortar or artillery shells back toward the area where the
insurgents had fired, witnesses said. The return fire landed in the
crowded Bakara market, which insurgents have used as a base to attack
government troops.

"I saw four dead bodies at the Mini-dollar Exchange," a foreign
currency exchange, said Abdi Fanah, a resident. "Four others died in
some other locations."

One hospital reported that 35 seriously wounded people had been
brought there, and that two had died.

A new government plan has allowed Bakara's merchants to provide their
own security. The government agreed to pull out its soldiers, who had
robbed merchants on several occasions, in return for the merchants'
not allowing insurgents to use the market as a base.

The transitional government is struggling to survive, suffering from
low popular support, a lack of resources, predatory soldiers and a
rising Islamist insurgency. The palace has increasingly come under
attack.

Ethiopian troops have been in Mogadishu since December 2006, when they
and transitional government forces ousted an Islamist administration
that had briefly controlled the capital.

Government leaders are reaching out to moderate Islamists, urging them
to negotiate to join the government. On Saturday, the United Nations
special representative for Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, said a
high-level delegation of opposition figures had arrived in Nairobi to
discuss possible reconciliation with him.

"I believe that Somalis at home and abroad are yearning for peace and
will not accept the continued fighting that has made their country a
pariah," Mr. Ould-Abdallah said in a statement. "They would like to
follow the 'right way' as described in the holy Koran."

Mohammed Ibrahim and Yuusuf Maxamuud contributed reporting from
Mogadishu, Somalia.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/29/world/africa/29somalia.html>
March 29, 2008
Somalia's Government Teeters on Collapse
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

MOGADISHU, Somalia — The trouble started when government soldiers went
to the market and, at gunpoint, began to help themselves to sacks of
grain last week.

Islamist insurgents poured into the streets to defend the merchants.
The government troops took heavy casualties and retreated all the way
back to the presidential palace, supposedly the most secure place in
the city. It, too, came under fire.

Mohamed Abdirizak, a top government official, crouched on a balcony at
the palace, with bullets whizzing over his head. He had just given up
a comfortable life as a development consultant in Springfield, Va. His
wife thought he was crazy. Sweat beaded on his forehead.

"I feel this slipping away," he said.

By its own admission, the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia
is on life support. When it took power here in the capital 15 months
ago, backed by thousands of Ethiopian troops, it was widely hailed as
the best chance in years to end Somalia's ceaseless cycles of war and
suffering.

But now its leaders say that unless they get more help — international
peacekeepers, weapons, training and money to pay their soldiers, among
other things — this transitional government will fall just like the 13
governments that came before it.

Less than a third of the promised African Union soldiers have arrived,
the United Nations has shied away from sending peacekeepers and even
the Ethiopians are taking a back seat, often leaving the government's
defense to teenage Somalis with clackety guns who are overwhelmed.

The Islamists have been gaining recruits, overrunning towns and
becoming bolder. The new prime minister, credited as the government's
best — and possibly last — hope, is reaching out to them, and some are
receptive. But it is unclear whether he has the power within his own
divided government to strike a meaningful peace deal before it is too
late.

The looming failure is making many people here and abroad question the
strategy of installing the transitional government by force. In
December 2006, Ethiopian troops, aided by American intelligence,
ousted the Islamist administration that briefly controlled Mogadishu,
bringing the transitional government to the city for the first time.

The Bush administration said it was concerned about terrorists using
Somalia as a sanctuary. The hunt for them continued with a recent
American cruise missile strike aimed at a suspect in southern Somalia,
but it missed, and wounded several civilians and promptly incited
protests.

Many Somalis, European diplomats and critics in Congress also question
the State Department's decision this month to label a Somali
resistance group a terrorist organization, which many fear will only
raise its profile among the increasingly disillusioned populace.

"The policy has failed," said Representative Donald M. Payne, Democrat
of New Jersey and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee
on Africa and Global Health. "We're Baghdad-izing Mogadishu and
Somalia. We're making people feel wrongly treated and pushing them
toward more radical positions."

In recent weeks, the Islamists have routed warlords and militiamen who
have been absorbed into the government forces but are undermining what
little progress transitional leaders have made with their predatory
tactics, like stealing food. After 17 years of civil war, Somalia's
violence seems to be driven not so much by clan hatred, ideology or
religiosity, but by something much simpler: survival.

"We haven't been paid in eight months," said a government soldier
named Hassan, who said he could not reveal his last name. "We rob
people so we can eat."

Nur Hassan Hussein, the prime minister, does not deny that government
troops rob civilians. "This is the biggest problem we have," he said
in an interview this month.

But, he said, he does not have the money to pay them. Each month, more
than half of government's revenue, mostly from port taxes, disappears
— stolen by "our people," the prime minister said.

That leaves Mr. Nur with about $18 million a year to run a failed
state of nine million of some of the world's neediest, most
collectively traumatized people.

And a failed state may be a generous term. In many ways, Somalia is
not a state at all, but more a lawless space between its neighbors and
the sea. Sometimes it seems that if anything binds this country
together, it is scar tissue.

Take Hassan Ali Elmi, who was blinded by a bullet in 1992 and has been
living ever since in a cell-like room in the gutted former Ministry of
Public Works building. His son tugs him into town to beg for the
equivalent of a few pennies a day, which buy less and less. At night,
he lies on a thin foam mattress and waits for the shooting to stop. It
doesn't.

"All Somalia, all gun," he said.

His neighbors are recently displaced people living in cardboard huts
that crumble in the rain. Aid organizations say that more than half of
Mogadishu's estimated one million people are on the run.

War, drought, displacement, high food prices and the exodus of aid
workers, many of the elements that lined up in the early 1990s to
create a famine, are lining up again. The United Nations World Food
Program said on Thursday, in a warning titled "Somalia Sinking Deeper
Into Abyss of Suffering," that the country was the most dangerous in
the world for aid workers.

Most Somalis do not argue with that. They say Mogadishu is more
capriciously violent than it has ever been, with roadside bombs,
militias shelling one another across neighborhoods, doctors getting
shot in the head and 10-year-olds hurling grenades. Police officials
said that many insurgents were actually hungry children paid a few
dollars for their work.

In the shrinking zone that the government controls in southern
Mogadishu, a couple of buildings have been splashed with a fresh coat
of paint. Girls wearing bandannas dribble basketballs in a gym. Men
sell fish by the seaside. A beat of life goes on. But north Mogadishu
is another story.

"It's like 'Mad Max' out there," said Abdi Awaleh Jama, an ambassador
at large, pointing from the presidential palace north toward the
expanse of huts and ruins stretching into the distance.

In the rat-tat-tat of nightly machine-gun fire, people are beginning
to hear the government's death knell. Many residents have mixed
feelings about this. They contend that the government has enabled
warlords. They say, almost without exception, that things were better
under the Islamists. But they fear what lies ahead.

"We're getting addicted to anarchy," said Dahabo Abdulleh, a fuel seller.

Mr. Nur, a former Red Crescent official who became prime minister in
November, is trying to peel away moderate Islamists from militant ones
and get them to negotiate. He is making concessions to business
leaders, who are widely suspected of financing the Islamists out of
clan allegiances, and allowing them to form their own protection
force. United Nations officials are trying to help Mr. Nur's prospects
by providing $14 million to pay key government salaries and fix up
ministries.

"This is urgent," said William Paton, the acting United Nations
coordinator for Somalia. "They are on thin ice."

Government officials say much of the resistance is simply spoilers who
are deeply invested in the status quo of chaos, like gun runners,
counterfeiters and importers of expired baby formula.

But some of the men believed to be the biggest spoilers are part of
the government. To get clan support and — just as crucially — more
militiamen, transitional leaders have cut deals with warlords like
Mohammed Dheere, now Mogadishu's mayor, and Abdi Qeybdid, now the
police chief. These are the same men whom the C.I.A. paid in 2006 to
fight the Islamists, a strategy that backfired because the population
turned against them, mostly because of their legacy of terrorizing
civilians.

Hassan, the government soldier, said he had been in one of these
warlord militias since he was 8. He cannot read or write. He has thin
wrists, a delicate face, empty eyes and a wife and two children to
feed, which is why he said he routinely robs people.

"We are losing," he said.

He said many of his friends were defecting to the Islamists because
that was the only way to survive.

The Islamists have briefly captured several towns in recent weeks,
freeing prisoners, snatching weapons and then melting back into the
bush. Gone are the beards and the checkered scarves they used to wear.
Many, like a young man named Elmi, are clean-shaven and favor crisply
pressed suits.

Elmi, who like Hassan said he could not reveal his last name, said
business owners sold gold, real estate and sheep to raise money for
the Islamists. Elmi said that he was part of the battle at the market
on March 20 that began with the looting, and that the government lost
three trucks, which was corroborated by government soldiers.

"We were there because we are everywhere," Elmi said.

Mr. Abdirizak, the government official, buried some of the victims of
that battle, young government troops who were slipped into graves
behind the presidential palace in the moonlight.

A soldier, Abdi Rashid, had been wounded in another firefight about a
month before, and according to Mr. Abdirizak, "he shouldn't even have
been out there that day. It's just that we don't have enough guys."

Mr. Abdi was shot in the heart at the market as the Islamists
surrounded government troops. His last words to his friends, who
wanted to carry him to safety, were, "Get out of here, get out of
here!"

Mr. Abdirizak fell silent.

"I'm not sure how long I'll stay," he finally said. "I want to help.
But I didn't come here to get killed."

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/world/africa/27briefs-MOREGAINSFOR_BRF.html>
March 27, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Somalia: More Gains for Islamist Forces
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

Islamist fighters overpowered government troops and briefly seized a
strategic town, the latest in a string of recent victories. According
to residents, Islamist fighters stormed into the town, Jowhar, about
50 miles north of Mogadishu, the capital, and killed seven government
soldiers. The Islamists freed several prisoners in the town's jail and
seized weapons before withdrawing. Government officials said the
fighters were connected to an Islamist movement that controlled much
of Somalia in 2006 until it was driven out by Ethiopian troops backing
Somalia's transitional government.
-- 
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>