[R-G] JAPAN: Abe's Exit a Distinct Possibility

[Anthony Fenton]

POLITICS-JAPAN:  Abe's Exit a Distinct Possibility
Analysis by Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Sep 9 (IPS) - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s declaration at a  
press conference in Sydney on Sunday that he would resign if  
parliament does not extend refuelling support for the United States- 
led coalition in Afghanistan showed the country’s first postwar  
leader failing in his conservative policies.

Asked at the press conference, at the close of the Asia Pacific  
Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, what he would do if he failed to  
get the required vote, the man who took office a year ago, promising  
to build a ‘beautiful Japan’, said: ‘’I would not cling to my job as  
prime minister’’.

‘’When Abe took office he rode the image of an ambitious young leader  
who symbolised a new page in Japan. But he has done so badly that the  
message (he projects) is gloomy -- that Japan’s postwar generation of  
leaders do not have the capacity to steer the country, now a  
respected economic powerhouse, into a leader in Asia,’’ Prof. Phil  
Deans, political analyst at the Temple University, Tokyo, told IPS.

Abe, 52, is already reeling under a series of corruption scandals.  
Takehiko Endo, the man he appointed as agriculture minister late  
August, in a cabinet reshuffle aimed at shoring up the failing image  
of his government, had to resign barely a week later on corruption  
charges.

In July Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was routed in elections  
to the Upper House by the opposition Democratic party which is set  
against the refuelling operations by the Japanese navy and will  
certainly oppose an extension beyond Nov. 1 when its authorisation  
expires.

Ichiro Ozawa, Democrat leader, insists that Japan can only  
participate in United Nations-led peacekeeping whereas the refuelling  
operations, begun in November 2001, are part of support for the U.S.- 
led ‘war-on-terror’ in Afghanistan.

When parliament convenes Monday for an extraordinary session, one of  
the main items for debate is bound to be the renewal of the refulling  
operations beyond Nov. 1. But there are other issues that Abe’s lame- 
duck government must face first, such as the corruption scandals.

Endo’s resignation is seen as a huge blow for Abe who has been  
struggling to appease the public and projecting an image of strong  
leadership. ‘’Abe has stoutly defended his ministers despite public  
anger... he projected an image of being prepared to protect his  
scandal-hit ministers at all costs,’’ commented the Asahi newspaper.

The looming resignation of Abe has, according to analysts,  
highlighted a disturbing aspect of modern Japan, a country Deans sees  
as ‘’increasingly detached’’ and ‘’rudderless’’ in the global arena.  
‘’Abe has pushed a nationalistic agenda that has fallen flat with the  
voters and resulted in few international landmarks. The result is an  
increasingly isolated Japan today,’’ Deans said.

Experts point to the marginalisation of Japan in the six-party talks  
aimed at containing North Korea’s nuclear development. The other  
countries in the group are the U.S., China, South Korea and Russia.

It has been pointed out that Abe’s insistence on linking the issue  
with that of Japanese citizens abducted by the totalitarian  
government, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, has contributed to  
making Japan the odd man out within the group that has gone ahead to  
forge new agreements with Pyongyang.

Abe's efforts to push conservative policies -- including patriotic  
educational curricula in schools and an anti-China approach -- have  
only increased the sense of isolation.

For example, the Asahi termed as " simplistic" the move by Abe to  
stress value-driven diplomacy -- around freedom and democracy--with  
India during his visit to New Delhi last month. Abe also sees an  
expanded Asia together with the U.S. and Australia, but not China.

Despite international concern, Abe’s single-minded pursuance of his  
conservative ideology surfaced when he travelled to Kolkata to meet  
with the grandson of the late Justice Radhabinod Pal, the only judge  
at the Tokyo tribunal in 1946 who refused to find Japanese war  
criminals guilty.

Pal, a strong pacifist who also condemned Japan’s atrocities in China  
and Asia during World War ll, is still revered among right- wing  
groups here for not blindly siding with the West.

Prof. Jeff Kingston, an international relations expert at the Temple  
University said he believed that Abe’s possible exit does not mean an  
end to conservative, policies since he is likely to be succeeded by  
the equally conservative Taro, currently foreign minister. ‘’Aso's  
leanings are similar to Abe’s. The reality is the postwar generation  
of LDP politicians is revisionist not reformist,’’ Kingston explained  
to IPS.

‘’Failure by Japan to come up with a strategic partnership with both  
India and China is a concern for everybody,’’ said Kingston.

(With reporting by Neena Bhandari in Sydney) (END/2007)