[R-G] Neocons Put on a Surge-Stravaganza

[Anthony Fenton]

POLITICS-US:  Neocons Put on a Surge-Stravaganza
By Eli Clifton
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39189

WASHINGTON, Sep 7 (IPS) - With U.S. General David Petraeus's eagerly  
anticipated final report on Iraq due on Sep. 15, supporters of the  
troop surge are busily trying to set the stage for the report that  
they believe will refute their opponents.

The media blitz in Washington is unfolding under the backdrop of  
dwindling domestic and international support for the ongoing U.S.  
presence in Iraq.

In a worldwide poll released Friday and conducted by the BBC World  
Service, GlobeScan and the Programme on International Policy  
Attitudes (PIPA), 67 percent of international respondents and 61  
percent of U.S. citizens think the U.S. should withdraw within a year.

Progress in the troop surge has been slow and Petraeus's July interim  
report found mixed results, with only six of 18 congressional  
benchmarks for success in Iraq being met.

On Thursday, the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute (AEI) --  
which has generally supported the George W. Bush administration's  
decisions in Iraq -- put on a marathon three-and-a-half hour series  
of panel discussions to promote AEI resident scholar Frederick  
Kagan's new report, "No Middle Way: The Challenge of Exit Strategies  
 From Iraq".

Kagan challenges another recent report by the Centre for a New  
American Security, which proposes a phased withdrawal from Iraq and a  
shift from the current U.S. role of performing security operations to  
an advisory and support role for the Iraqi police and military.

"...(The CNAS) report, like most middle-way strategies, mistakes the  
conditions that would make such a transition successful: when basic  
security has been established. Instead, it suggests than an immediate  
transition to an advisory role -- driven by hopes for bipartisanship  
in Washington but irrespective of the security situation in Iraq --  
would allow the United States to withdraw most of its combat forces  
without compromising its interests," writes Kagan. "That conclusion  
is false."

The "No Middle Way" kickoff included surge-heavyweights such as  
Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, the Brookings  
Institution's Michael O'Hanlon, retired U.S. Army General Jack Keane  
and AEI's Danielle Pletka and Gary J. Schmitt.

"Middle Way" proponents, however, did get their say with James N.  
Miller, the co-author of the CNAS report, titled "Phased Transition:  
A Responsible Way Forward and Out of Iraq", defending his report in  
one of the two panel discussions.

The lead-up to the Petraeus report -- which, the LA Times reported,  
"would actually be written by the White House, with inputs from  
officials throughout the government" -- has fanned the flames of  
debate over whether the surge is actually having its desired effect.

All the speakers at the AEI event, minus Miller, painted a positive  
image of post-surge Iraq, citing drops in sectarian violence and the  
impossibility of starting an immediate phased withdrawal based on  
timelines instead of improvements on the ground, both political and  
security related, which, they claim, would only lead to a failure in  
Iraq.

Meanwhile, public support for the U.S. military presence in Iraq is  
continuously dwindling. Proponents of the surge point to statistics  
showing decreases in sectarian bloodshed, but serious questions have  
been raised about the validity of this data.

Petraeus, in his upcoming report, is expected to cite a 75 percent  
decrease in sectarian attacks and a 17 percent decline in civilian  
casualties from December 2006 to August 2007.

However, an Associated Press report last week said that 1,809  
civilian deaths occurred in August, making it the highest monthly  
casualty count this year, with 27,564 civilians killed since the AP  
began its data collection in April 2005.

Furthermore, a General Accounting Office (GAO) report -- criticised  
at the "No Middle Way" event -- found that the "average number of  
daily attacks against civilians have remained unchanged from February  
to July 2007."

Kagan, Keen and O'Hanlon discount such dire statistics as not being  
representative of the Iraq they have witnessed during week-long tours  
of the country.

Graham summed up the situation as either continuing with the surge  
and emerging victorious, or choosing a middle ground and facing  
certain defeat.

"My last visit convinced me more than anything else that the biggest  
benefit from the surge is to take the men and women on the frontlines  
and change their attitudes about their mission," said Graham.  
"They've gone from riding around waiting to be shot to feel like  
they're kicking their ass. God bless," Graham concluded.

The LA Times suggested on Aug. 25 that morale might not be "sky high"  
or "through the roof", as Graham claimed in his remarks Thursday.

"The latest in a series of mental health surveys of troops in Iraq,  
released in May, says 45 percent of the 1,320 soldiers interviewed  
ranked morale in their unit as low or very low. Seven percent ranked  
it high or very high," said the LA Times.

(END/2007)