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loudly about the need for a more pragmatic approach, one that tones
down the anti-Western rhetoric, at least a bit, and focuses more on
improving management of the country and restoring Iran's economic
health.

The mounting domestic challenges, the most serious of which is a
grinding period of stagflation, with inflation growing and the economy
weakening, have apparently deepened tensions between President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and the religious establishment he ultimately answers to.
And they have helped spur a collective rethinking of Mr. Ahmadinejad's
stewardship as Iran prepares to celebrate the 29th anniversary of the
Islamic Revolution this month and to hold parliamentary elections on
March 14.

"I think the Islamic Revolution is going through an identity crisis,
and is trying to mature," said Nader Talebzadeh, a filmmaker who
supports Mr. Ahmadinejad. "We are maturing, gradually."

There are increasing signals, however, that the government is not
interested in hearing other voices and is geared instead toward
maintaining power by silencing critics. For the parliamentary
elections, so far about 70 percent of all reform candidates have been
disqualified.

While the president's supporters say the rejections were based on
legal standards, like a lack of loyalty to the Islamic system or the
idea of having a supreme leader, reformists say the rejections are an
effort to keep them out of power.

Last week, the government shut down Iran's most important feminist
magazine, which had been published for 16 years. The authorities also
arrested a small group of students after a protest at Tehran
University over poor conditions in their dormitory.

In the middle of a snowy, icy winter, women have been arrested for not
wearing proper Islamic clothing. Hats over head scarves, boots over
pants, can bring trouble.

"Their harsh reaction to everything shows they feel very vulnerable,"
said Morad Saghafi, a philosopher and writer in Tehran. "They arrest
10 students because they think if they don't, 100 will come. Yes, they
feel vulnerable."

In recent weeks, even Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme religious
leader, changed his tone regarding the president, offering rare public
criticism while reasserting his own standing as the steward of Iran's
foreign and nuclear policies.

"The present government, similar to any other government, has certain
shortcomings which should be mentioned sympathetically," Ayatollah
Khamenei said recently before warning critics not to go overboard.
"But some individuals attempt to criticize and insult every move by
the government. The majority of these individuals are, however,
negligent, that they are acting in line with the enemies' propaganda."

Sayeed Laylaz, an economist who was briefly a deputy minister in the
former reform government, said: "The supreme leader realizes this
economy, this country, doesn't work anymore. He is trying to
reconstruct it from within."

An adviser to the supreme leader, speaking on the condition of
anonymity to avoid a dispute with the president, added that "there is
a consensus" on the need for better management.

Mr. Ahmadinejad's office refused requests to discuss events in Iran
with the president or his advisers. The president's new chief security
adviser, Saeed Jalili, refused to be interviewed unless the entire
content of the interview was printed in a question-and-answer format
in the newspaper. Posting it on the Internet would not suffice, his
office said.

But political analysts, politicians and supporters say that the
president does not have to change as long as the mood for change stops
with the political elite, and that the troubles so far have not
undermined his support among the pious poor. He continues to be
popular, they say, seen as a man of principle and good intention,
though that may be wearing thin.

South of Tehran, near the Imam Khomeini International Airport, in a
neighborhood called Robat Karim, people were without gas for days last
month, and they continue to suffer cuts in power at midday and at
night, residents said.

Iran's natural gas shortage became a crisis when Turkmenistan, to the
north, cut off supplies in December over a pricing dispute. Iran does
not have the refining capacity to meet its own needs.

Robat Karim is a conservative neighborhood, wary of foreigners, and
supportive of the president. But with streets that have not been
cleared of snow, and the cold nights, nerves have frayed.

"I have a tenant in an apartment upstairs, and there was no gas for
days," said Nour Asadzade, 70, a shopkeeper in the neighborhood. "He
asked me to help, but I said, What can I do, it's in the hands of the
government."

Outside, a 52-year-old woman stepped carefully around the ice, the
potholed road and the puddles. "I want to say, 'No, they don't pay
attention to us.' " She said her name was Akram, then grew frightened
and slipped into her house.

For years it seemed that Iran was evolving away from a state defined
exclusively by revolutionary ideology. Former President Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, himself a father of the revolution, emphasized
pragmatic economic ties. His successor, Mohammad Khatami, eased up on
social restrictions and called for a "dialogue of civilizations."

Then came Mr. Ahmadinejad, who rose from a new generation, a class of
men who fought in the eight-year war with Iraq, and who have since
moved to roll back Iran to a time when revolutionary ideology defined
the state. For example, Kaveh Bayat, a historian, said the desire to
export the revolution was back.

"The idea that you have to export the revolution or you will cease to
exist is another deeply ingrained element =97 it was dormant during
Rafsanjani and Khatami but it is awake again," Mr. Bayat said. "We
tried to forget it, but it is back."

President Ahmadinejad so changed the direction of the state that it
has led many to assert that three decades after the revolution, Iran
remains a place defined by individuals, not institutions.

Nearly everyone seems to recognize that one of the biggest problems is
the nature of the political system =97 divided as it is among multiple
factions, each striving for access to power. It is not one devised to
build compromise, and the internal fighting can send confused messages
to the outside world. "It would make our job a lot easier, if only
they could agree," said a Western diplomat based in Tehran who spoke
on the condition of anonymity, which is standard diplomatic protocol.

Another diplomat said, "I am stunned by their emotion and antagonism
they demonstrate in their fighting with each other."

At least two views exist about where this is leading. One view is that
Mr. Ahmadinejad and his radical allies needed to come to power to see
that ideology cannot be a successful guide to running a modern state
like Iran. The economic hardships, according to this view, will
ultimately moderate or marginalize them. "They come into the center of
power and they realize running a country like Iran is difficult," said
a business consultant and political analyst in Tehran who asked to
remain anonymous to avoid retribution.

"This specific topic, the management of gas resources, hits every
home," the consultant said. "I think with this, the system as a whole
has reached a climax."

Another view holds that Mr. Ahmadinejad and his ideologically driven
allies will not give up power, and will not be driven from power.
"From a social point of view, we have a social structure in place for
the emergence of fascism," Mr. Bayat, the historian, said. "Like
Europe in the 1920s, we have a dissatisfied proletariat looking for
radical and extreme solutions. Ahmadinejad is not imposed on us."

--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>