[R-G] If you are tired of "rumours" of Fidel dying...

[Macdonald Stainsby]

There'll be no Conspiracy to Hide Castro's Death
Our Still-Living Man in Havana
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w071001&s=barclay100207
by Eliza Barclay

With the probable exception of Osama bin Laden, no one individual's 
death is more anticipated that Cuban leader Fidel Castro's. After 48 
years at the helm, he is the longest-serving current ruler of a country. 
Eager anticipation of the 81-year-old's death is nothing new, of course: 
Since seizing power in 1959, he has been the target of as many as 638 
assassination attempts, and various injuries and illnesses in past years 
have also fueled speculation that his end was near. His most recent 
affliction, an unidentified intestinal illness that forced him to cede 
power to his brother Raul last summer, has only increased his many 
opponents' impatience for his final departure.

In the last two months the rumor mill had taken on a new intensity, with 
louder and more aggressive assertions that he was long-gone. For several 
consecutive Fridays in August, reports detonated in the blogosphere, the 
mainstream media, and on the streets of Cuban-exile communities around 
the world that Castro's passing had finally arrived. No official 
announcement from Havana ensued, suggesting that the rumors were false, 
but many people who generated the rumors stood firm on their sources, 
and insisted that the Cuban government is hiding the fact that Castro is 
truly dead.

One of the allegations that generated the greatest hype came from a 
surprising source: Mario Lavandeira, a.k.a. Perez Hilton, a Miami-born 
celebrity blogger of Cuban heritage, who typically doesn't cover 
international politics. Lavandeira announced on August 24 that 
high-level sources had revealed to him that Castro was dead and that the 
announcement from Havana would happen at exactly 4 p.m.
	
According to Univision, the Spanish-language media giant, readers of 
Univision.com called in around the same time claiming that the news was 
"confirmed" and demanded that the company update its website with the 
news immediately.

Both Hilton and many members of the Miami Cuban-exile community, 
including posters on Univision message boards and callers on local radio 
stations, believe that Castro has been dead for weeks, if not months, 
despite the lack of acknowledgement from Havana. Even though Castro was 
interviewed in September on Cuban television and appeared in a photo 
with Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, Lavandeira and others 
have refused to take back their assertions that he is dead.

But right now, obviously, there isn't any conspiracy to conceal Castro's 
death. And when he does pass, there won't be. The Cuban government has 
acquired an image as adept at lies and cover-ups. Though the reputation 
has stuck, it's in large part a myth of the government's own making. 
Insofar as it speaks to a desire to conceal Castro's death, there isn't 
much behind it.

There are two key points that Castro death-wishers make when defending 
the claim: That, prior to his recent reemergence, he had not been seen 
in public for over a year; and that the Cuban government isn't ready to 
run the country without him.

When the announcement never came in August, and institutions like the 
Wall Street Journal accused Hilton of reporting "fake news," Lavandeira 
defended his post. He claims it is in the Cuban government's interest to 
hide Castro's death "because they are not ready for a change in the 
regime," Lavandeira told me in an e-mail.

Another pundit who has remained fairly firm on his stance that Castro is 
gone is Val Prieto, a Miami-based blogger for Babalu. Prieto recently 
argued that the Cuban and international press are complicit in covering 
up Castro's death. Prieto wrote, "Isn't it reasonable to think that the 
Cuban government, as long as it has dumbasses, useful idiots and 
[mainstream media] journalists held by the balls, all swallowing the 
"fidel's ok, here's his latest editorial" bullshit soup, that it will 
continue to do so unfettered and without consequence?" (After Castro's 
television appearance last week, Prieto noted that the legitimacy of the 
video was questionable, given that it was prerecorded.)

In fact, Castro's illness has given the government plenty of time to 
prepare for the official succession of power from brother to brother. 
"The government is not in a position of weakness. This is actually an 
ideal scenario for them. This is a long slow fade from power," said 
Philip Peters, an expert on the Cuban economy and vice president of the 
Virginia-based Lexington Institute. "I don't think they are afraid of 
the moment [of Fidel's death]."

Indeed, Cubans are growing accustomed to seeing Raul in the role of the 
political leader. Even though Raul Castro is running the day-to-day 
functions of government, it's become quite clear that he has goals and 
interests that he won't be able to see through until his brother's 
death. For instance, during a speech on July 26 in the central province 
of Camaguey, Raul called for "structural and conceptual changes" in the 
state-controlled agricultural sector to boost output and lower prices.

Analysts say the changes Raul has suggested could mean allowing 
collectives and other semi-private enterprises to take over the land 
that the government has left fallow. A move in that direction would be a 
clear acknowledgement that the government has failed at producing ample 
food for the country on its own under the Socialist model, and that a 
different model is needed. Meanwhile, Fidel's own rhetoric (as conveyed 
through a series of essays appearing in Cuban newspapers) and belief in 
the system he created has not faltered once since he took ill.

Another reason the Cuban government isn't going to pretend he's alive 
when he's not is that his ministers believe that the Cuban people will 
need a chance to mourn him before moving forward. "They're planning a 
big funeral; there's no benefit in avoiding the announcement" said Uva 
de Aragon, associate director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida 
International University in Miami. In the meantime, according to de 
Aragon, they may keep him out of public view because he is on an oxygen 
tank or has some other unsightly medical condition.

Castro had not appeared live in public since late July, 2006, when he 
fell sick and was forced to undergo surgery. Since then, only a few 
images of the aged leader have appeared in the Cuban press, including 
that prerecorded TV interview. However, though he had not materialized 
in the flesh, 45 essays with his byline have been printed in Cuban 
newspapers since March, where he pontificates on such themes as the Iraq 
war, biofuels and climate change. The articles could be ghost-written, 
but many observers say they mirror his meandering style of public speaking.

As evidence by his steady stream of bylined writing, the Castro 
government has been working to dispute the rumors. "I think [the people 
who believe he is dead] are people who confound their wishes with 
reality, they are obsessed with this," Cuban Culture Minister Abel 
Prieto told reporters in mid-September, according to Reuters.

When Castro finally dies, the announcement will be solemn but firm. And 
then Cuba--and everyone awaiting his demise--can move on.

Eliza Barclay is a freelance writer based in Mexico City and has 
reported from Latin America for The New York Times, Fortune, and Slate.


-- 
Macdonald Stainsby
Coordinator, http://oilsandstruth.org
--
moderated radical news & discussion list:
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In the contradiction lies the hope.
    --Bertholt Brecht.