[R-G] Will Chavez pull the trigger?

[Anthony Fenton]

For a humorous critique of this 'whacked out conspiracy' propaganda,  
see:

http://www.borev.net/2007/11/form_of_whacked_out_conspiracy.html

Will Chavez pull the trigger?
Hugo Chavez
AP
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez answers a question during a news  
conference with foreign media at the Miraflores presidential palace  
in Caracas.
Venezuelans may give their president the power to restrict oil  
production -- and cause a global recession.
By Michael Rowan and Douglas Schoen
November 13, 2007
On Dec. 2, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez can tip the world into a  
recession.

On that day, if Venezuelan citizens pass the dozens of constitutional  
amendments on the ballot, Chavez will essentially be granted  
dictatorial powers -- an elected strongman reminiscent of Spain's  
Franco, Italy's Mussolini and Orwell's Big Brother. The day could  
easily deteriorate into one of violence, martial law and suspension  
of oil production, the latter calculated to inflict maximum damage on  
the U.S. economy.

With the price of oil hovering near $100 a barrel and markets  
skittish because of the sub-prime housing crisis (not to mention the  
stability of U.S. banks, the U.S. trade deficit, the weak dollar and  
deteriorating domestic consumer confidence), such a move on Chavez's  
part would go a long way in triggering a recession. An oil crisis  
during the Christmas season -- with its 40% share of annual retail  
sales -- would be especially detrimental in the U.S.

Rising oil prices have caused global recessions in the past. The  
Saudis and other oil-producing countries have tried to increase  
output to offset rising costs. But working against stability and for  
high oil prices are Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who are in  
a strategic alliance to push up the price of oil.

Oil economists calculate that on a supply-and-demand basis alone, the  
price of oil would be about $50; the remaining $45 in the current  
price is a political premium caused by uncertainty in the Israeli- 
Palestinian conflict, Iran's suspected nuclear plans, the wars in  
Iraq and Afghanistan and social unrest in Pakistan, Nigeria and  
Venezuela. But where the world sees a threat, Ahmadinejad and Chavez  
see opportunity: Civil discord lines their pockets.

In Chavez's eyes, a world economic crisis would prove that capitalism  
is a failure and the U.S.' "evil empire" is historically over.  
Chavez's Bolivarian socialist economic order would supposedly move to  
the forefront. For his part, Ahmadinejad can use world chaos to gain  
hegemonic strength in the Middle East. The two, working in cahoots,  
could then reach out to partners in Syria and elsewhere in the region.

Chavez is a brilliant military strategist who has reportedly spent or  
committed $110 billion since 2004 (an amount equivalent in today's  
dollars to what the U.S. spent in the Marshall Plan after World War  
II) in political investments in the Americas and elsewhere. His plan  
is to spread the revolution against capitalism and the United States.  
So far, he has a string of victories to show for it. Bolivia, Ecuador  
and Nicaragua are already in his camp; Argentina owes him $5 billion,  
and his candidates came within 1% of winning elections in Mexico and  
Costa Rica in 2006.

Alarmingly, Chavez is also building support in the U.S. He subsidizes  
winter oil available for up to 2 million American families in 17  
states and promotes his revolution through photo-ops with celebrities  
such as Sean Penn and Naomi Campbell and dealings with politicians  
such as Jimmy Carter and Joseph P. Kennedy II. He has retained  
consulting firms connected to such politicians as Jack Kemp and Rudy  
Giuliani.

Chavez has succeeded because he was grossly underestimated by his  
opponents. It's happening even now. The Bush administration has  
ignored Chavez in the hope that he would go away or that his  
neighbors would isolate him. But he has done just the opposite and  
isolated the U.S. within the Americas.

The U.S. has been searching in vain for Osama bin Laden and weapons  
of mass destruction while another threat has been lurking in our  
backyard for years. The solution would have been to pull the rug from  
under Chavez before he could do it to us -- to plan for a U.S.  
economy sans Venezuelan oil. It's too late for that now; our economic  
state is too precarious.

What we need to do is work toward decreasing our dependence on  
foreign oil generally and the oil of hostile governments  
specifically. And we must engage in a Marshall Plan of our own to  
help Latin America rise out of the poverty and despair that catapults  
populist despots like Chavez into office.

When democracy comes before economic development, you get a Chavez.  
When our lust for oil comes before sound foreign policy, you get a  
recession.

Michael Rowan is a Latin American newspaper columnist and consultant  
who lived in Caracas from 1993 to 2006. Douglas Schoen is a political  
consultant and author. They are the authors of "The Threat Closer to  
Home," to be published in 2008.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-oe- 
schoen13nov13,1,1444441.story?coll=la-news-a_section&ctrack=1&cset=true