[R-G] Musharraf in straits, but it's doomsday ahead

[Anthony Fenton]

Times of India
Musharraf in straits, but it's doomsday ahead
5 Nov 2007, 0014 hrs IST,Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/ 
Musharraf_in_straits_but_its_doomsday_ahead/articleshow/2517588.cms

With muted international condemnation and a blind-eye from  
Washington, Gen Musharraf seems to have had another smooth-sailing  
for the time-being. The word of consolation has already come from  
Pentagon with US saying the new political equation wouldn't affect  
military ties.

The benchmarks of the day were: coup against judiciary; democracy  
derailed, general elections postponed, press gagged and civil society  
having a miscarriage.

But Pakistan is not a bed of roses for President Musharraf to stay  
put in power for an infinite period. Internal and external challenges  
have already started taking its toll on him, as Pakistan is geo- 
strategically poised for a showdown with militants and foreign troops  
in Afghanistan.

The doomsday writing is already on the wall for Musharraf as US  
Centcom Commander General Fallon, a day before the second coup,  
pressurised Islamabad to allow US and ISAF forces to operate inside  
Pakistan to flush out remnants of Taliban and Al-Qaida.

General Fallon exclusively cited the uprising in Swat and the mess in  
Pakistan's tribal areas, and termed it as unacceptable for the US  
dictum of war on terror. It's anybody's guess as to how long a  
beleaguered Musharraf will continue to resist US demands.

On the other hand, Afghanistan is another unresolved regional riddle  
for Pakistan, and the iron-handed measures expected under the new  
regime are likely to further worsen the already strained relations.  
Islamabad is now likely to go ahead with its plans of fencing and  
mining the 2400-km porous border with Afghanistan, to the ire of  
Kabul, European Union and the United States as a last bid to save its  
skin from the influx of terrorist elements across the Durand Line.

Moreover, the unrest in the tribal areas, especially North and South  
Waziristan, is likely to see a new impetus as talks underway under  
various jirga compositions will lose their clout in an ever-changing  
political situation.

The policies of Musharraf are already seen as controversial in these  
areas and an amicable equation seems to be a distant possibility.  
Abduction of Pakistan Army soldiers and officers has become the new  
modus operandi of the battling tribesmen, and the situation is likely  
to worsen in days to come. Around 238 soldiers are being held captive  
by Mehsud tribesmen in South Waziristan and their release is being  
negotiated for a swap with hardened criminals held by the government.

Pakistan has already been a theatre of suicide attacks and any  
hardening of approach against the religious-right is likely to bring  
in more trouble. A lingering agenda with New Delhi and an estranged  
equation with Tehran will be some of the erstwhile irritants that  
Musharraf will have made to deal with in all complexities.

Sources said Pakistan's new military attire and dispensation can be a  
prelude to a US-backed offensive against Iran and Islamabad will be  
made to walk fait accompli.

(The writer is a senior journalist in Karachi)