[R-G] NATO Considers Worst-Case Scenarios (part 2 of Der Spiegel)

[Anthony Fenton]

December 17, 2007

Germany Faces Taliban Pincer in Afghanistan
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,523805-2,00.html

By Alexander Szandar and Susanne Koelbl

Part 2: NATO Considers Worst-Case Scenarios

The tension in Afghanistan could become even worse if the situation  
in neighboring Pakistan, the hub for ISAF's logistics operations,  
spins out of control. In the wake of the confusion Pakistani  
President Pervez Musharraf triggered by imposing a state of  
emergency, senior NATO military leaders now fear that the country  
could very well descend into total chaos after the elections  
scheduled for January. If US ally Musharraf does not manage to retain  
his hold on power, the already half-hearted efforts by the Pakistani  
military leadership, permeated with Islamists, to stem Taliban and al- 
Qaida activities in the Pashtun tribal regions could fail completely.

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung (CDU) has called on NATO to  
draw up a plan of campaigns for the next few years.
NATO military leaders are already considering a number of worst-case  
scenarios. According to one model, if the ISAF's adversaries in  
Pakistan are given free rein, the NATO Response Force (NRF), which  
will include about 5,700 German troops beginning in January, could be  
brought in as reinforcements. The military officials are also  
examining the extreme worst-case scenario -- purely as a theory and  
only in the form of a computer simulation -- the withdrawal of ISAF  
forces that have been cut off from supplies.

Nevertheless, these strategy games are merely a secondary pursuit for  
a handful of selected officers, instructed to maintain absolute  
secrecy, in Kabul, at NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Headquarters  
in Brunssum, the Netherlands, and at NATO military headquarters in  
Mons, Belgium. The overwhelming majority of the organization's senior  
military personnel are involved in the ongoing operations against the  
Taliban.

But the allies seriously disagree over what should come next after  
the winter offensive.

NATO must finally "define the goals of its commitment precisely,"  
German Defense Minister Jung wrote in a classified document he  
presented to his counterparts at a meeting in the Dutch town of  
Noordwijk in October. According to Jung, NATO needs a "plan of  
campaigns" for the next few years and clear "criteria to define and  
measure success and failure." Besides, he added, "closer  
coordination" with civilian aid organizations, as well as with the  
United Nations, the European Union and the Afghan government in Kabul  
is needed to advance the approach of "networked security" with  
civilian-military reconstruction teams.

But the allies chose to ignore Jung's suggestions. Instead, the NATO  
Council reverted to its usual method of addressing differences of  
opinion and assembled a project group.

But US Defense Secretary Gates, on behalf of the United States, the  
dominant NATO power, has already determined where the organization  
should be headed. In a hearing before the US House Armed Services  
Committee, Gates said that the alliance's focus in the coming years  
should be "to counter terrorist networks and triumph over  
insurgencies." To defeat the Taliban, Gates said, the US's European  
allies will need to provide more troops, helicopters and other weaponry.

Public Mood Is Shifting

But the allies are not exactly inclined to heed Gates's words. Only a  
few small nations like Croatia, Albania and Georgia offered  
significant numbers of troops, hoping this would improve their  
chances of swift admittance to NATO.

In many other countries, however, a heated public debate has erupted  
over how long the alliance's troops should continue to support a  
country in which drug production continues to reach new record highs  
and corruption has eaten its way into the highest levels of government.

In Germany, at any rate, the mood has already shifted. According to  
recent opinion polls, half of all Germans no longer support the  
country's Afghanistan mission and favor withdrawing the Bundeswehr  
from the country.

Public opinion is similar in Canada, which has more than 1,700 troops  
fighting in southern Afghanistan and has already lost 29 soldiers  
this year. According to an official who Peter Struck, the floor  
leader of Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD), recently sent to  
Canada to sound out the political mood there, the government in  
Ottawa is coming under increasing pressure. According to the  
official, if the current opposition wins next year's election, its  
first move will be to "announce the withdrawal of troops."

The Dutch have already taken that step. After losing eight soldiers  
in Afghanistan this year, the cabinet ended a series of heated  
debates with a clear resolution. The government in The Hague  
announced that it had reached an irrevocable decision to begin  
withdrawing its troops, stationed primarily in war-torn Uruzgan  
Province, in August 2010. Under the resolution, the last of the Dutch  
soldiers will be home by Christmas 2010.

The Dutch decision may have set a precedent, raising concerns among  
NATO military leaders over a possible domino effect. If only one  
major NATO country yields to domestic pressure and decides to  
withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, it could set off an avalanche,  
a Norwegian general recently told Wolfgang Schneiderhan, the  
inspector general of the Bundeswehr. "It would be a strategic defeat  
for the alliance."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan