[R-G] Defeat for Chavez; Victory for Putin

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/world/americas/03venezuela.html>
December 3, 2007
Venezuela Hands Narrow Defeat to Chávez Plan
By SIMON ROMERO

CARACAS, Venezuela, Monday, Dec. 3 —Voters in Venezuela defeated a
contentious referendum that would have given President Hugo Chávez
sweeping new powers, the Election Commission announced early Monday.

The results were a stunning defeat for a leader who was trying to
extend already broad powers and lead his country in a radical new
direction.

The commission said 50.7 percent voted against the referendum and 49.3
percent voted in favor. The results were all the more surprising given
that Mr. Chávez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of
power.

"The result is quarrelsome," Vice President Jorge Rodríguez said in
comments broadcast on national television.

Opposition leaders were more upbeat. "Tonight, Venezuela has won,"
said Manuel Rosales, governor of Zulia State and the opposition's
candidate in presidential elections last year.

Through the night supporters and critics of the president pointed to
exit polls in their favor, suggesting a disputed outcome. Electoral
officials said complete official results could be released early
Monday, after reports from polling stations around the country
trickled in here.

In recent weeks, members of previously splintered opposition movements
joined disillusioned Chávez supporters in an attempt to defeat the
referendum on constitutional changes. The plan would have abolished
term limits, allowed Mr. Chávez to declare states of emergency for
unlimited periods and increased the state's role in the economy, among
other measures.

A defeat will slow Mr. Chávez's socialist-inspired transformation of
the country. Venezuela, once a staunch ally of the United States, has
become a leading opponent of the Bush administration's policies in the
developing world. It has also taken the most profound leftward turn of
any large Latin American nation in decades.

The streets here were unusually quiet on Sunday evening, adding to a
tension that surrounded the balloting. Supporters of Mr. Chávez
gathered around the presidential palace downtown to await the results,
as they have done in past elections. The occasional blast of fireworks
broke the rare silence of this city.

The referendum followed several weeks of street protests and frenetic
campaigning over the 69 amendments to the Constitution proposed by Mr.
Chávez and his supporters. It caps a year of bold moves by the
president, who forged a single Socialist party among his followers,
forced a television network critical of the government off the public
airwaves, and nationalized oil, telephone and electricity companies.

In Caracas on Sunday, turnout in poorer neighborhoods, where support
for Mr. Chávez is strong, indicated that the referendum was drawing a
mixed response. Lines were long in some areas and nonexistent in
others.

"The whole proposal is marvelous," said Francis Veracierta, 52, a
treasurer at a communal council here, one of thousands of local
governing entities loyal to Mr. Chávez that he created this year.
After awakening to predawn fireworks, she said she joined a line at 6
a.m. to vote at a school in Petare, an area of sprawling hillside
slums here.

"The power is for us in the community," said Ms. Veracierta, wearing a
red shirt, red cap and belt with Che Guevara's face on it. She said
she credited Mr. Chávez's government for giving her a $3,800 loan to
start a small clothing business.

Some of Mr. Chávez's populist proposals, including an increase in
social security benefits for some workers, have been praised even by
his critics.

Turnout in other poor districts was unexpectedly low, indicating that
even the president's backers were willing to follow him only so far.
Some Chávez supporters expressed concern that if they voted against
the measures they might be retaliated against.

There was no line in front of the voting center at the Cecilio Acosta
school in Petare on Sunday morning, as a few dozen people who had
already voted milled about the street. Some volunteers working the
voting machines sat idle, waiting for more voters to arrive. Other
voting centers in Petare had lines outside, but they were less than
half a block long.

"I'm impressed by the lack of voters," said Ninoska González, 37, who
sells cigarettes on the street. "This was full last year." She
described herself as a "Chavista" who voted for the president in last
year's presidential elections, but said she voted against his proposed
changes on Sunday.

"I don't agree with some articles," Ms. González said. Asked about the
measure to pay social security benefits to workers in the informal
economy like her, she said, "That's a lie."

Confusion persisted Sunday over the amendments, with a major complaint
among the president's supporters and critics that they had too little
time to study the proposals.

Unlike in past votes here, this time the government did not invite
observers from the Organization of American States or the European
Union, opening itself to potential claims of fraud.

The voting seemed to unfold largely without irregularities, though
there were isolated reports of fraud and violence in parts of the
country. Recounts are allowed under Venezuelan law, but would have to
be approved by the Supreme Court, which is controlled by Mr. Chávez's
supporters.

In recent weeks, Mr. Chávez has adopted an increasingly
confrontational tone with critics abroad, who have been multiplying
even in friendly countries with moderate leftist governments like
Brazil and Chile.

In the days before the referendum, Mr. Chávez recalled his ambassador
from Colombia and threatened to nationalize the Venezuelan operations
of Spanish banks after Spain's king told him to shut up during a
meeting. Mr. Chávez said he would cut off oil exports to the United
States in the event of American interference in the vote.

The United States remains the largest buyer of Venezuela's oil,
despite deteriorating political ties, but that long commercial
relationship is starting to change as Mr. Chávez increases exports of
oil to China and other countries while gradually selling off the oil
refineries owned by Venezuela's government in the United States.

Venezuela's political opposition, normally divided among several small
political parties, found common cause in calling on its members to
vote against the amendments. An increasingly defiant student movement
also protested here and in other large interior cities against the
proposed charter.

In a move that alarmed the opposition, electoral officials over the
weekend revoked the observer credentials of Jorge Quiroga, a former
president of Bolivia and an outspoken critic of Mr. Chávez. Mr.
Quiroga accused security forces here of following him after his
arrival in Caracas. "They've taken my credential but not my tongue,"
Mr. Quiroga said.

Mr. Chávez, whose followers already control many powerful institutions
— the National Assembly, the federal bureaucracy, the national oil
company, the Supreme Court and all but a handful of state governments
— relied on an unrivaled political machine to gather support for the
measures.

Uncertainty over Mr. Chávez's reforms, meanwhile, has led to
accelerating capital flight as rich Venezuelans and private companies
rush to buy assets abroad denominated in dollars or euros. The
currency, the bolívar, currently trades at about 6,100 to the dollar
in street trading, compared with an official rate of 2,150.

Venezuela's state-controlled oil industry is also showing signs of
strain, grappling with a purge of opposition management by Mr. Chávez
and a retooling of the state oil company to focus on social welfare
projects while aging oil fields need maintenance.

Petróleos de Venezuela, the state oil company, says it produces 3.3
million barrels a day, but OPEC places its output at just 2.4 million
barrels. And private economists estimate that a third of oil
production goes to meet domestic consumption, which is surging because
of a subsidy that keeps gasoline prices at about seven cents a gallon.

Still, Mr. Chávez already has unprecedented discretionary control over
Venezuela's oil revenues, valued at more than $60 billion a year.
"Because of its oil, Venezuela has global reach in OPEC and the rest
of Latin America," said Kenneth R. Maxwell, a professor of Latin
American history at Harvard University.

Jens Erik Gould contributed reporting.

<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aijpzZt1zCMQ&refer=home>
Putin Gets Mandate as His Party Sweeps Russian Vote (Update5)

By Henry Meyer and Sebastian Alison
Enlarge Image/Details

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- President Vladimir Putin's party swept
parliamentary elections, partial results showed, giving him the
mandate he sought to keep guiding Russia after he leaves office next
year.

The Central Election Commission said, with 91.6 percent of yesterday's
vote counted, that United Russia had 63.2 percent and two other
pro-Kremlin parties a combined 19.7 percent -- handing them more than
four-fifths of the seats in the State Duma. Turnout was above 60
percent, higher than in 2003. Opposition parties complained of
unprecedented vote-rigging.

Putin, 55, who cannot run in March 2 presidential elections because of
a ban on three consecutive terms, had called for Russians to vote in
large numbers for his party, saying this would give him the ``moral
right'' to retain a leading role. He has yet to reveal what that will
be.

``Sixty-sixty does achieve the objective: to substantiate Putin's
popularity and position,'' Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib
Financial Corp. in Moscow, said in a telephone interview. ``He can now
pretty much choose what position he wants going forward.''

Investors have welcomed the prospect of a continuation of the
president's policies. Russia's economy has expanded nearly 7 percent a
year since Putin was first elected in 2000, fueled by high energy
prices, and the value of Russian stocks has grown by $1 trillion.

`Continue to Dominate'

``Although Mr. Putin is leaving office, his influence and approach and
a team of like-minded colleagues will continue to dominate Russia's
political structures and manage its macroeconomy regardless of who is
elected president next year,'' Moody's Investors Service Vice
President Jonathan Schiffer said in an e-mailed comment.

The partial results gave the opposition Communist Party second place
with 11.7 percent. Two other parties that support Putin also were on
course to clear the 7 percent barrier required to enter the lower
house of parliament. Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party
of Russia had 8.4 percent and Fair Russia, led by Sergei Mironov,
speaker of the upper house of parliament, had 8.0 percent. Two small
pro-democracy parties failed to win seats. The vote should be mostly
counted by 10 a.m. Moscow time.

United Russia's chairman, Boris Gryzlov, said the elections ``were
effectively a referendum'' on Putin and that the president ``won in
the first round.''

Putin Victory

``Putin will consider this result a victory,'' Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a
political analyst at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, said
in a telephone interview. ``I am sure he will manage to maintain his
power.''

United Russia and its allies would have almost 400 of the 450 Duma
seats, based on the early results, with the Communists holding the
remainder.

Opposition parties alleged that the state used its resources to rig
the result in favor of United Russia. Communist leader Gennady
Zyuganov denounced unparalleled ``administrative pressure,''
describing the elections as ``not democratic, not fair and not free.''
His party plans to contest the results in the Supreme Court.

According to Russian nongovernmental organization Golos, which
receives U.S. government funding, the authorities put pressure on
state employees to obtain absentee ballots, so that they could vote at
work under official supervision, ``to artificially boost turnout'' and
United Russia's share of the vote.

Election Observers

The main election-monitoring arm of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe, the continent's leading rights and democracy
watchdog, abandoned plans to observe the vote, citing ``unprecedented
restrictions.'' Only a 70-strong European parliamentary observer
mission monitored the election. It will announce its findings later
today.

Putin, who stepped up anti-Western rhetoric during the campaign,
warning of the danger of ``jackals'' backed by foreign powers taking
control, accused the U.S. of advising the international observers to
stay away.

The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush called on Russian
authorities to investigate reports of election-day irregularities.

``We expressed our concern regarding the use of state administrative
resources in support of United Russia, the bias of the state-owned or
influenced media in favor of United Russia, intimidation of political
opposition, and the lack of equal opportunity encountered by
opposition candidates and parties,'' White House spokesman Gordon
Johndroe said in an e- mailed statement. ``We also regret that
limitations Russia imposed on election monitors prevented OSCE's ODIHR
from fielding an election monitoring mission.''

OSCE Absence

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview with
Deutschlandfunk radio broadcast yesterday that she regretted the
absence of OSCE observers and had told Putin of the importance of a
multiparty system.

The Russian leader, who headed United Russia's list of candidates for
the Duma, hasn't endorsed any candidate to replace him as president.
Pollsters say that any politician who gets Putin's blessing will win.

Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, a co-chairman of United Russia, said the
party could announce its presidential candidate as early as Dec. 17,
the Interfax news service reported.

Analysts say that among potential successors to Putin are First Deputy
Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov, 54, and Dmitry Medvedev, 41, and Prime
Minister Viktor Zubkov, 66. Candidates must come forward by Dec. 23.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sebastian Alison in Moscow at
salison1 at bloomberg.net ; Henry Meyer in Moscow at
Hmeyer4 at bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: December 3, 2007 00:26 EST
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>