[R-G] Israel and Syria fear misreading of intentions

[Anthony Fenton]

  Jane's Defence Weekly  - August 22, 2007

Israel and Syria fear misreading of intentions

Alon Ben-David JDW Correspondent
    Tel Aviv

Tensions between Israel and Syria remain high, despite an exchange of  
soothing messages between Jerusalem and Damascus. There is a mutual  
worry that if either side were to make a miscalculation, the result  
could be a military clash.

"Syria does not want war and Israel knows it," said Syrian Vice- 
President Farouk Al-Sharaa at a press conference in Damascus on 14  
August. "But Syria is preparing for it because it knows and feels  
that Israel wants a pretext for war as happened in 2006," Sharaa added.

In a response the following day, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak  
said: "Israel is not interested in war with Syria and we believe that  
Syria does not want war either. Therefore a war should not erupt."  
Barak made his statement while visiting an Israel Defence Force (IDF)  
armour exercise in the Golan Heights.

In what observers have seen as an unusual move, both Barak and  
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert visited the IDF Northern Command  
HQ on 14 August, in order to "oversee the IDF's level of  
preparedness", according to Olmert's office.

The Israeli cabinet recently concluded a series of six special  
meetings in which the IDF presented the 'Syrian threat'.

While Olmert has ordered his cabinet and IDF officers to refrain from  
making public statements about Syria - in an effort to calm any  
escalation of verbal exchanges between the countries - IDF officers  
remain concerned over "an unprecedented re-armament effort conducted  
by Syria in recent months".

"Syria has been procuring vast amounts of advanced anti-tank weapons,  
reflecting a lesson learned from Hizbullah's successes in penetrating  
Israeli armour during the [2006] war in Lebanon," an IDF source told  
Jane's.

In addition, Syria has been bolstering its air-defence alignment by  
acquiring the most advanced Russian systems, including the Pantsyr- 
S1E self-propelled short-range gun and missile air-defence systems,  
the Tor-M1 (SA-15 'Gauntlet') road-mobile shelter-mounted low- to  
medium-altitude surface-to-air missile system and negotiating for the  
procurement of the longer-range S-300PMU-1/2 Favorit (SA-10c/d  
'Grumble') air-defence system. As JDW went to press, defence sources  
confirmed that delivery of some 36 Pantsyr-S1E systems for Syria had  
now begun.

"The Syrians are snatching untested air-defence systems straight from  
the Russian production lines," an Israel Defence Force Air Force (IDF- 
AF) source told Jane's. "The area around Damascus has become the most  
condensed air-defence alignment in the world."

The IDF has been warily following the Syrian stockpiling of heavy  
surface-to-surface rockets, which are being deployed between Damascus  
and the Golan Heights, and are capable of hitting targets in central  
Israel.

The weapons include the Syrian-made 220 mm rockets, carrying an  
80-100 kg warhead to a 100 km range; the 302 mm rocket with improved  
range of 150 km and a 150 kg warhead; and a Syrian-produced copy of  
the Iranian Fateh-110 solid-propellant rocket with a range of 250 km,  
carrying a 500 kg warhead.

"The Syrian alignment is now capable of showering rockets on most of  
Israel's strategic sites, such as IAF bases, and IDF HQs and assembly  
areas, as well as on Israel's civilian population centres," a defence  
source told Jane's. "They have also learned from the recent war that  
the IAF has limited capabilities in suppressing rocket fire."

Indeed, Barak's newly presented IDF doctrine called for a swift  
ground manoeuvre into enemy territory to prevent rocket launches into  
Israel.

On the other side, the Syrians are watching the IDF conducting its  
most extensive training effort in decades, mostly along the Syrian  
border on the Golan Heights.

"We have not trained enough for five years and we now plan to train  
all the IDF's units," Barak explained during his visit to an  
exercise. "Our training areas lie in the Negev and Golan Heights.  
There we train and will continue to train in order to be prepared for  
any test."

"We will not start a war, but we have to be ready to repulse any  
aggression," Syrian Vice-President Sharaa stated.

While Israeli military intelligence recognises that the Syrian  
measures are of a defensive nature, there is a growing fear that if  
Damascus misinterprets Israeli intentions, a clash could result.

"The military build-up combined with our high preparedness creates an  
extremely volatile situation," a senior Israeli defence source told  
Jane's. "Any unexpected trigger could drive both parties to a clash  
neither of them wants."