[R-G] Great powers cast bids for strategic Central Asia

[Anthony Fenton]

Copyright 2007 Agence France Presse
All Rights Reserved
Data in Image
Agence France Presse -- English

August 19, 2007 Sunday 1:18 AM GMT

LENGTH: 813 words

HEADLINE: Great powers cast bids for strategic Central Asia

BYLINE: Sebastian Smith

DATELINE: BISHKEK, Aug 19 2007

BODY:


In the titanic contest for power over Central Asia between China,  
Russia and the United States, Akmamat Kasimov's market stall must be  
the smallest battlefield.

At the heart of the teeming Kayal market in the Kyrgyz capital  
Bishkek, he hawks military uniforms from all three protagonists of a  
19th century-style Great Game for control of the strategic region.

Just 400 som, or 10.5 dollars, buys a set of Chinese camouflage  
trousers and smock. An authentic Russian army outfit costs double.  
Top of the range, the US version carries a price tag of 34 dollars.

"The Chinese one sells best. It's cheap," Kasimov, 38, says.

Today those same three powers are engaged in an infinitely larger  
power struggle right across Central Asia.

This often sparsely inhabited region of deserts, mountains and steppe  
boasts huge gas and oil reserves. It also links Europe, Russia,  
China, and the unstable Muslim world to the south, including  
Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan.

As demonstrated in joint military exercises and a summit last week of  
the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), China and  
Russia are working together to stem US advances into the region.

But for all its vast open spaces, Central Asia may not be big enough  
for more than one great power and in a three-way struggle, analysts  
say, China could have the edge.

Unlike Russia and the United States, China has no military presence  
in the region, instead relying on the lure of the yuan.

"China is quietly expanding through economic means," Fyodor Lukyanov,  
editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, said. "They make no  
drama, but are persistent."

Look around any market in Kyrgyzstan, an impoverished country of just  
5.3 million just across the Tien Shan mountains from China, and  
stands are awash with Chinese goods.

Trade turnover reached 2.8 billion dollars last year -- nearly all of  
it Chinese imports -- and, according to Chinese President Hu Jintao,  
leapt another 73.5 percent in the first half of this year.

In the Kayal market, everything from sewing needles to fishing line  
and paint rollers is labelled in Chinese. At Kasimov's booth, one  
shopper claimed even the US uniforms with their NATO labels were  
Chinese counterfeits.

"Well it says American, but it could be Chinese. Who the hell knows?"  
Kasimov responded. "We say it's American."

While the Chinese fund and build infrastructure projects through  
Central Asia, then funnel their goods to new markets, the US is  
currently focused on maintaining military reach and lobbying for  
access to energy riches.

Crucial to the military presence is an airbase in Kyrgyzstan for  
planes supporting the war against the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan.

Neither Beijing nor Moscow wants the Taliban back and, while unhappy  
about the US base, they are toning down calls for Kyrgyzstan to  
follow Uzbekistan's 2005 closure of a similar US air force facility.

"The US will strengthen itself in Kyrgyzstan. This is a forward post  
of a global strategy," Kyrgyz political analyst Marad Kazakbayev says.

According to Kazakbayev, Washington's strategy is to deal with  
governments in Central Asia on a bilateral basis, not in blocs, in  
order to exploit the region's often shifting alliances.

"They tell these small countries: 'Why should you do what China and  
Russia tell you to do? Be with us!'"

In addition to Kyrgyzstan, Washington has close relations with  
Kazakhstan, a major oil power, and is attempting to woo the reclusive  
leader of gas-rich Turkmenistan.

But the military quagmires in Afghanistan and Iraq are damaging US  
standing, while Washington's lectures on democracy often fall flat in  
a region of strongman rulers, analysts say.

"There was Western momentum, but that has passed now and many aspects  
of Western policy are extremely unpopular," said Oksana Antonenko, at  
the London-based Institute for International and Strategic Studies.

Meanwhile, Russia still dominates existing gas and oil export  
pipelines out of the region. The most important new projects revolve  
around delivering Kazakh oil and Turkmen gas not to the West, but  
east to China.

High energy prices also mean Russia is swimming in cash, allowing  
Moscow to take on China and the United States at their own game.  
President Vladimir Putin promised Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev  
two billion dollars of investment last Thursday.

Russia's historic role as former colonial power can also be  
advantageous: while almost no one in the region speaks Chinese and  
only a small minority know English, Russian is the lingua franca for  
millions.

Even the president of Mongolia, which was not part of the Soviet  
Union, spoke fluent Russian when meeting Putin in Bishkek last week.

In the flyblown bustle of Kayal, which means "dream" in Kyrgyz,  
Kasimov says his country is learning to ride the geopolitical wave.

"It's good in a way. They all come to help us," he said, smiling.  
"Tell America 'hello' from me!"

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