[R-G] U.S. maps strategy for alliance with Arabs --- Plan seeks to secure supplies of energy while thwarting Iran

[Anthony Fenton]

Economy & Politics
U.S. maps strategy for alliance with Arabs --- Plan seeks to secure  
supplies of energy while thwarting Iran
By Jay Solomon
1042 words
10 August 2007
The Wall Street Journal Europe
9
English
(Copyright (c) 2007, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

WASHINGTON -- With Iraq's future an open question and Iran's regional  
clout likely to keep growing, the administration of U.S. President  
George W. Bush is forging a long-term strategy to secure energy  
supplies that relies on drawing Arab governments into an alliance to  
coordinate defenses of oil-related infrastructure, combat terrorism  
and thwart Tehran's nuclear and regional ambitions.

The U.S. hopes the tens of billions of dollars of new weaponry for  
Middle East allies announced last week will underpin various regional  
defense initiatives. But the administration's ultimate goal is to  
push a much more ambitious security agenda in concert with the six  
countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as  
Jordan and Egypt.

Next month, the U.S. and the "GCC Plus Two," as the group is called,  
will hold their sixth meeting of the year. Pentagon and State  
Department officials have been crisscrossing the Middle East recently  
to promote what they call a Gulf Security Dialogue. One U.S. official  
involved in the diplomacy said it seeks to build a consensus on Iraq  
and fighting al Qaeda, as well as "deterring an increasingly  
hegemonic Iran." In addition to Saudi Arabia, the GCC is made up of  
Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar. Yemen is  
in negotiations to join the organization.

The strategy is one of Washington's principal initiatives in the  
Middle East, alongside its efforts to broker a regional conference  
this fall to tackle the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Critics,  
however, argue the move has led Washington to sacrifice its calls for  
political change and liberalization in countries such as Saudi Arabia  
and Egypt in pursuit of its desire to contain Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week said long-term  
democracy promotion and the defense of the Arab states were  
compatible initiatives.

Many security strategists say Washington has misidentified the  
challenges. While the U.S. is backing large-scale armies, they say,  
Tehran has expanded its influence in places such as Lebanon, Iraq and  
the Palestinian territories through backing militias such as  
Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran has also improved its strategic position  
through the effective use of charities, social-services networks and  
public diplomacy.

"The U.S. is far superior to Iran in the sense" of military strength  
already, while "Iran trumps Washington in the use of soft power,"  
says Emile El-Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at Washington's Henry L.  
Stimson Center. "You can pump more high-tech weaponry into these Arab  
regimes. But it's not going to change the fundamental dynamic much."

Analysts also warn that the strategy risks perpetuating decades long  
U.S. policy in the Middle East of propping up authoritarian regimes  
that have squelched any political opposition. That has provided  
propaganda for Islamist and other extremists groups, such as the  
Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda.

Critics of the new policy argue that the U.S. should be promoting  
steps toward democratization and a regionwide dialogue with Iran,  
while also maintaining deterrent forces in the Middle East.

It also isn't clear that the GCC Plus Two -- predominantly Sunni  
Muslim states -- is willing to act as a broader counterweight against  
Shiite Muslim Iran, say Middle East analysts and diplomats. Many Arab  
leaders are reluctant to overtly challenge the Iranian regime,  
fearing it could fuel an arms race. And states within the GCC, such  
as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have historically been at odds on some key  
strategic issues.

Saudi Arabia, which has a sizable Shiite minority in its oil-rich  
east, oversaw the establishment of the GCC in 1981 in response to the  
Islamic revolution that swept Iran two years earlier. In its early  
years, the GCC focused on shoring up the internal security of its  
member states against the possible spread of Islamic fundamentalism  
and Shiite activism.

Washington began engaging the GCC in the early 1980s, seeking support  
for its policy of containing Iran and Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led  
government in Iraq. During the first Persian Gulf War, the  
administration of President George H.W. Bush worked with GCC  
countries to reverse the Iraqi army's invasion of Kuwait.

Some U.S. initiatives, such as energy security, could become top GCC  
priorities. In response to threats posed by al Qaeda, and Iran's  
strategic position along the Persian Gulf, the U.S. has been quietly  
pushing allied Gulf states to beef up oil-related defenses. Saudi  
Arabia and Kuwait, in particular, have spent heavily to fortify oil- 
related infrastructure against terrorism. After a thwarted attack  
against a major Saudi facility in 2006, U.S. officials started  
offering advice to exporters to help make their defenses more robust.

The State Department has started a project enlisting big oil  
producers to boost oil-infrastructure security in the Gulf and other  
oil-producing countries. Officials decline to name the cooperating  
countries. In the Gulf, where oil is often enmeshed in nationalist  
sentiments, officials on both sides are reluctant to discuss any  
energy-security cooperation.

The United Arab Emirates is looking at projects that would provide  
alternative routes for shipping Gulf oil, including building new  
pipelines and storage facilities.

In addition, the U.S. Treasury views the Gulf states as central to  
its attempts to cut off funds for Iran and its regional activities.  
U.S. officials, in particular, see the emirate of Dubai as a key  
financial center supporting Iran's theocratic regime.

U.S. diplomats say Washington's cooperation with the GCC is not the  
start of a formal alliance but rather an augmentation of military  
relationships the Pentagon has already established with many Gulf  
states. Still, at a conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, last week,  
Ms. Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates worked with Arab  
diplomats to endorse a policy statement that talked of a mutual- 
defense initiative among Gulf states.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government criticized the  
statement and arms deals, claiming they aimed at inciting broader  
tensions between Sunni and Shiites states.

---

Chip Cummins in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this  
article.

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