[R-G] Opposition Has Edge in Lebanon Vote

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

Great news. -- Yoshie

<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/06/world/middleeast/06lebanon.html>
August 6, 2007
Opposition Has Edge in Lebanon Vote
By HASSAN M. FATTAH

ROUMIEH, Lebanon, Aug. 5 — Lebanon's fragile stability was jolted
Sunday by a hotly contested parliamentary election in an important
Christian district where a little-known opposition candidate claimed
victory. If the claim is verified, it would be a major blow to
Lebanon's governing Western-backed coalition, which has been engaged
in an intense power struggle with an alliance of opponents for months.

Unofficial results indicated that the opposition candidate, Kamil
Khoury, who represents the Free Patriotic Movement, led by the
Maronite Christian leader Gen. Michel Aoun, had won a seat left vacant
by the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, a Parliament member, last
November.

Mr. Khoury's performance was all the more surprising because his rival
was Mr. Gemayel's father, former President Amin Gemayel, who comes
from one of Lebanon's most prominent political dynasties and is an
important voice in the anti-Syrian majority now in power.

"If Gemayel loses it would mean an end to his political career and
ambitions, and maybe an end to the political family itself," said
Talal Atrissi, professor of political sociology at Lebanese
University.

Mr. Gemayel did not concede defeat and urged supporters to await the
official results from the Interior Ministry. He accused General Aoun's
party of vote-rigging.

If Mr. Khoury is declared the winner, General Aoun's own political
prospects would be greatly enhanced and it would strengthen his drive
to bring down the government, which has been resisting demands from an
alliance of General Aoun, the militant organization Hezbollah and
other pro-Syrian groups in Lebanon for more power.

General Aoun has been actively engaged in campaigning to be the next
president of Lebanon when Parliament elects a new president this fall.
Under the power-sharing political system between Lebanon's Christians,
Muslims, Druse and other sects, the president must be a Christian.

Turnout was mixed as Lebanese voters went to the polls in the
predominantly Christian Metn district and in a Beirut district to fill
two seats left vacant by the assassinations of Mr. Gemayel last
November and the Sunni Muslim Walid Eido in June. Both lawmakers were
members of the March 14 movement, a force in the so-called Cedar
Revolution that helped to end Syria's 29-year presence in Lebanon two
years ago and a vocal opponent of Syria.

Mr. Eido's seat had been widely expected to be taken by a Sunni
candidate fielded by March 14, and turnout was comparatively low.

But the election battle in the Maronite Christian Metn region of Mount
Lebanon, just north of Beirut, proved a heated and bitter contest
between two poles of an increasingly divided Christian population.

The election in Metn was preceded by a heated campaign, with Mr.
Gemayel's backers emphasizing the sacrifices of his son and other
members of his family who have been slain in assassinations during
Lebanon's violent political history, while General Aoun's supporters
accused the governing party of divisiveness and of not representing
the people.

"This battle is to complete this country's sovereignty, confirm the
Cedar Revolution and accomplish the goals of the independence
uprising," Mr. Gemayel said before the vote.

The results were also a referendum on the March 14 Movement, which has
increasingly alienated many Christians, some voters said Sunday. It
furthermore underscored the gains General Aoun had made ever since he
arrived from exile in France in 2005 with a populist message eschewing
what he called Lebanon's sectarian feudalism.

That General Aoun's candidate, a virtual political unknown, proved a
tough competitor to Mr. Gemayel, the onetime president who curried
sympathy and campaigned in his son's memory, underscored the level of
discontent many Christians here have been feeling and the resonance of
General Aoun's message.

The general, in alliance with Hezbollah, has led the revolt against
Lebanon's political system, demanding greater inclusion and an end to
control by a series of political dynasties.

The opposition has held a sit-in in Beirut since December, crippling
the rebuilt downtown and leaving the country in a virtual political
stalemate. And it has demanded the resignation of the government of
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which is backed by the United States and
other Western powers.

Here in Roumieh, a onetime stronghold of the Phalangist party of Mr.
Gemayel, the gradual shift toward the Free Patriotic Movement of
General Aoun has even created tensions between families.

"It has become divided socially," said Michel el-Ghoul, 23, a resident
of Roumieh who once supported the Phalangists and is now an Aoun
supporter. He said many Phalange supporters ostracized him when he
switched sides.

Adel Azar, a relative of Mr. Ghoul who gathered with him and other
members of the family after voting early on Sunday, said: "The
Phalangists took us for granted. They used to talk about us as, 'They
belong to us.' But things changed."

Many fear that the political struggle in Lebanon may lead to the
formation of competing governments if Parliament fails to elect a new
president by Nov. 23, when the widely criticized pro-Syrian president,
Émile Lahoud, is required to step down.

Nada Bakri contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon.

--
Yoshie