[R-G] SURPRISE: "Oil is key"

[DavidMcR at aol.com]

In a message dated 1/26/03 2:12:12 AM Eastern Standard Time, 
geese4peace at yahoo.com writes:

<< 
 from
 The Sunday Herald
 Sun, Jan 26, 2003
 
 http://www.sundayherald.com/30905
 
 Oil is key as Bush agrees month delay
 
 France demands Iraqi oil rights to drop veto
 By James Cusick in London, 
 Marion McKeone in New York, 
 and David Pratt, Foreign Editor
 
 TONY Blair and George Bush have privately agreed on a joint strategy
 that will delay any possible war against Iraq for four weeks during
 which time they will work tirelessly to achieve three key objectives:
 Firstly, they seek to persuade France, one of the five permanent
 members of the UN Security Council, not to carry out its threatened
 veto of a second UN resolution to allow the US to intervene in Iraq.
 
 The French, along with Russia and China, also permanent members of the
 UN but not expected to vote, have extensive oil rights in Iraq and want
 those guaranteed before agreeing to any UN resolution. 
 
 Secondly, to ensure that all military personnel and hardware is in
 place for a likely attack at the start of March.
 
 Finally, to utilise every possible moment to win the hearts and minds
 of the American and British public and persuade them that war is
 justified in order to disarm Saddam Hussein. 
 
 In what will be a crucial five days for the two leaders, culminating in
 their meeting at Camp David on Friday, the Prime Minister and the US
 president agreed during a lengthy telephone conversations last week
 that the 'United Nations route', however difficult, remained their
 political preference. 
 
 According to sources at the United Nations in New York, the White House
 has now confirmed to senior UN officials that weapons inspectors in
 Iraq will be given more time and that tomorrow's report to the Security
 Council by the chief weapons inspector, Dr Hans Blix, will not be
 regarded as a trigger for unilateral action by the US and Britain. 
 
 However, the softening of Washington's hardline rhetoric comes at a
 price. Weapons inspection teams will be given only a matter of weeks,
 not months, to complete their report. 
 
 The US is also understood to be ready to compromise its plans to
 monopolise the post-war oil industry in Iraq using only US oil firms.
 The US government's promise to hold Iraqi oilfields 'in trust' for the
 people of Iraq is now looking like an international, US-led promise to
 spread the spoils between US, French, Chinese and Russian oil
 companies. 
 
 What remains unclear diplomatically is the position the anti-war German
 government will take if the French are seen to roll over in a covert
 oil deal. However new diplomatic noises from Berlin appeared positive,
 with Germany's foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, insisting that his
 country maintained 'close ties' with Washington. Fischer also said Iraq
 had to disarm, indicating even Germany would be forced into a
 compromise position. 
 
 Blix's report to the security council tomorrow, in his own words, will
 state that Iraq's co-operation with weapons inspectors has been 'a
 mixed bag'. His report will also state that Iraq has not been proactive
 in assisting the inspectors. For the US Secretary of State, Colin
 Powell -- speaking in Davos, Switzerland, today at the gathering of
 international political and business leaders -- Iraq has not done
 enough.
 
 And in a hint of what is to come in the coming month, he said the
 international community could not shrink from its responsibility to
 disarm Iraq by force just because 'the going is getting tough'. 
 
 Just how tough will probably be evident within a matter of weeks.
 Bush's State of the Union address to the US Congress on Tuesday,
 followed by discussions inside the security council on Wednesday and
 the Camp David meeting two days later, will be the foundation of an
 offensive by the US government to convince a still doubt-ridden US
 public that war against Saddam is both justified and clear cut. 
 
 Powell has previously admitted that the US administration has not done
 enough to convince the hearts and minds of American and international
 opinion. 
 
 The additional breathing space will also be crucial for Blair. A new
 opinion poll in today's Sunday Times states that the Prime Minister
 still has his work cut out: only 26% said he had convinced them that
 Saddam was sufficiently dangerous to justify military action. Though
 72% said they would support a war that had the backing of the UN, only
 20% gave Blair the backing for a war in which British troops would join
 a US-led force.
 
 All diplomatic, political and military considerations now point to war
 being timetabled for the first week of March. March 3 is likely to be
 the first date of any sustained bombing campaign, with US
 meteorologists forecasting ideal weather conditions.
 ____________________________
 http://www.sundayherald.com/
  >>