[Marxism] Updates on the situation in Nepal

[Stuart Munckton]

http://maobadiwatch.blogspot.com/

Ben Peterson is a member of the Australian DSP currently in Nepal.
Monday, May 4, 2009  UPDATE: May 4 9:30
AM<http://maobadiwatch.blogspot.com/2009/05/update-may-4-930-am.html>
Kathmandu this morning- at least for now is still in an uneasy calm.

The breaking News is that late last night the President (of the Nepali
Congress Party) went way outside his role as stipulated in the interim
Constitution and contacted the ex-General Katawal and requested that he
continue at his post. The implications of this are unclear- weather the
legitimate CoAS Khadka has stepped aside or, the much more probable
scenario, there are now two people claiming to be the legitimate head of the
Armed Forces. It seems that there is now a dual power, with the Prime
Minister being challenged (unconstitutionally) by the president.

This will just further disrupt the situation and lead to further
instability. The Major political parties of the UML and the MJF are still
divided, and are likely to remain. However the UML has definitely left
government, although with real reservations from certain key leaders.
Yesterday there were clashes between Maoists and Congress Cadres, and
occasionally the Congress and the police, and it is likely that the same
will occur again. Today is likely to be another hectic and fast paced day-
will give more details as i have them.
  Posted by Ben Peterson  at 1:35
PM<http://maobadiwatch.blogspot.com/2009/05/update-may-4-930-am.html>
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     Sunday, May 3, 2009  Ongoing Events: May 3rd
6:00PM<http://maobadiwatch.blogspot.com/2009/05/ongoing-events-may-3rd-600pm.html>
While
an uneasy haze surrounds Kathmandu, things for the moment have returned to a
relative normality.

Things are a little clearer now, but still things are changing at present,
and especially without access to the Nepali Language news it is hard to tell
exactly what is going on.

To recap this morning after a final last ditch attempt at consensus- the
Maoists removed the Chief of Army Staff General Katawal from his post. This
has brought into the open divisions with in the government, within the
Military and within many political parties.

The Madheshi Peoples Rights Forum (MJF) passed a note of decent
against the procedure
that the Maoists used to sack Katawal. They are deeply divided about the
action, and split vertically, with key leaders on both sides of the debate.
The CPN(UML) boycotted the cabinet meeting after the motion to sack Katawal
passed. It seems that they have left the government, but they too are split
vertically, with key leaders being very vocal on both sides of the issue. It
is yet to be seen for certain what stance these parties will take in the
coming days, they have both had emergency meetings this afternoon. It does
appear however the at least factions of the UML are teaming up with the
Nepali Congress to try and create a new Government.

Naturally the Nepali Congress lead the opposition to the Maoists. They have
been trying to disrupt the capital and create protests all afternoon with
little success. Further, the nations ceremonial President is a member of the
Nepali Congress and has increasingly been trying to overstep his role. The
interim Constitution clearly states that the President takes his directives
from the executive- however President Ram Baran Yadav is now choosing to
"consult other stake holders" before endorsing any decision on the matter.

At present the risk of a Military Coup appears small (although not
insignificant). The now acting Chief of Staff General Khadka appears to have
consolidated control within the military. That being said EX-General Katawal
was attempting to meet with his supporters in the military, and i have not
seen the outcome of this meeting yet.

It will however all come down to the streets. So far the NC are the only
ones who have tried to call people to the streets against the decision. All
after noon NC members created fires and disrupted traffic. These were
counted however by the Maoists- led by the YCL, who have organised rallies
across Kathmandu, and then dispersed opposition groups and removed traffic
hazards, put out fires ect. Within less than 12 hours of the decision, a
Maoist rally of More than 10,000 has been held in central Kathmandu, with
smaller rallies elsewhere.

These events are of course unlikely to be over today, and it also needs to
be stressed that we are yet to see a response from the "international
community". It is still essential that International watchers be on guard
for the possible necessity of Solidarity actions.

More as i know it.
-- 
"The free market is perfectly natural... do you think I am some kind of
dummy?" — Jarvis Cocker

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" — Oscar Wilde